{"id":65793,"date":"2003-11-13T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2003-11-13T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2003\/11\/13\/pour-la-premiere-fois-le-mot-terrible-defaite\/"},"modified":"2003-11-13T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2003-11-13T00:00:00","slug":"pour-la-premiere-fois-le-mot-terrible-defaite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2003\/11\/13\/pour-la-premiere-fois-le-mot-terrible-defaite\/","title":{"rendered":"Pour la premi\u00e8re fois, le mot terrible : \u201cd\u00e9faite\u201d<\/em><\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pour la premi\u00e8re fois, le mot terrible : d\u00e9faite<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\t13 novembre 2003 Pour la premi\u00e8re fois dans les milieux officiels am\u00e9ricains, le mot est prononc\u00e9, et il concerne l’Irak bien entendu : d\u00e9faite. Un rapport de la CIA avertit le gouvernement de cette possibilit\u00e9 d’une d\u00e9faite en Irak. C’est le quotidien Philadelphia Inquirer<\/a> qui, le premier, a publi\u00e9 des informations sur ce rapport. Le journal australien Herald Sun<\/a> a repris ensuite l’information. D’autres journaux ont tr\u00e8s vite suivi et publi\u00e9 leur propre rapport, dont le Guardian<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tLe rapport est tr\u00e8s r\u00e9cent. Il a tr\u00e8s rapidement \u00e9t\u00e9 l’objet d’une fuite, dont le Herald Sun<\/em> affirme qu’elle est voulue (sans doute par la CIA), pour emp\u00eacher le blocage de l’information vers le pr\u00e9sident. (Cette pr\u00e9caution ne garantit probablement rien. GW Bush est strictement inform\u00e9 par son cercle restreint contr\u00f4l\u00e9 par le vice-pr\u00e9sident Cheney et son conseiller Karl Rove. M\u00eame une fuite rendant publique une information de cette importance n’offre aucune garantie que cette information l’atteindra.)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\t\u00ab The report landed on the desks of senior US officials on Tuesday. The speed of the leak suggested that senior policymakers want to make sure the assessment reaches Mr Bush. Some senior policymakers have complained of being frustrated in their efforts to provide Mr Bush with analyses that are more sombre than the optimistic views of Vice-President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld.<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tLe Guardian<\/em> donne diverses indications montrant la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration de la situation en Irak, notamment avec l’annonce que les gu\u00e9rilleros seraient aujourd’hui 50.000 en Irak. Ces \u00e9valuations donnent une image pr\u00e9cise des \u00e9l\u00e9ments qui soutiennent l’analyse de la CIA.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\t\u00ab The White House yesterday drew up emergency plans to accelerate the transfer of power in Iraq after being shown a devastating CIA report warning that the guerrilla war was in danger of escalating out of US control. The report, an appraisal of situation commissioned by the CIA director, George Tenet, and written by the CIA station chief in Baghdad, said that the insurgency was gaining ground among the population, and already numbers in the tens of thousands.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb One military intelligence assessment now estimates the insurgents’ strength at 50,000. Analysts cautioned that such a figure was speculative, but it does indicate a deep-rooted revolt on a far greater scale than the Pentagon had led the administration to believe. An intelligence source in Washington familiar with the CIA report described it as a bleak assessment that the resistance is broad, strong and getting stronger.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb It says we are going to lose the situation unless there is a rapid and dramatic change of course, the source said. There are thousands in the resistance not just a core of Ba’athists. They are in the thousands, and growing every day. Not all those people are actually firing, but providing support, shelter and all that.<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tCes indications montrent que certains milieux officiels US sont d\u00e9sormais fondamentalement pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par l’\u00e9volution de la situation en Irak, que l’urgence de cette situation semble un facteur d’intense pression. Le fait que Paul Bremer lui-m\u00eame partage les pr\u00e9occupations de la CIA est une indication extr\u00eamement importante \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tL’administration GW est tr\u00e8s divis\u00e9e devant la situation en Irak et quant aux mesures \u00e0 prendre. Elle est min\u00e9e et affaiblie par les querelles internes, dans une mesure jamais atteinte auparavant, par aucune autre administration. Le pr\u00e9sident est une personnalit\u00e9 trop falote pour pouvoir surmonter ces divisions et imposer un front uni devant la gravit\u00e9 de la situation. Il est possible que cette information, en m\u00eame temps que l’hypoth\u00e8se d’une r\u00e9elle aggravation de la situation menant \u00e0 des conditions quasiment insupportables pour les forces US, constitue un facteur accentuant encore cette division et cette faiblesse, plut\u00f4t qu’un sursaut mobilisateur.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tLa fuite, provoqu\u00e9e comme elle semble l’\u00eatre par ceux qui ont fait le rapport, semble \u00e9galement, et surtout, destin\u00e9e \u00e0 prendre date pour ceux qui l’ont provoqu\u00e9e. C’est une fa\u00e7on pour la CIA, contre ses adversaires au sein de l’administration (Pentagone principalement), de laisser une trace quasi-officielle de son \u00e9valuation r\u00e9aliste, contre la d\u00e9sinformation virtualiste qui intoxique aujourd’hui l’ensemble de l’administration. Au moment de r\u00e9gler les comptes, la CIA entend bien signifier qu’elle a fait son travail.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tCi-dessous, nous publions le texte, relativement court, du journal australien Sun Herald<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

CIA warns of defeat<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tThe Sun Herald, 13 November 2003<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tA TOP-secret CIA report warns that growing numbers of Iraqis believe the US-led coalition can be defeated and are supporting the resistance. The report paints a bleak picture of the political and security situation and cautions that the US-led drive to rebuild the country as a democracy could collapse. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tPaul Bremer, head of the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, who arrived unexpectedly in Washington for strategy sessions yesterday, endorsed the CIA’s findings, a senior administration official said. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tThe report’s tone and Mr Bremer’s private endorsement differ sharply from public assessments. President George W. Bush, chief aides and Mr Bremer are giving upbeat public pronouncements in an attempt to counter rising anxieties at home over US casualties in Iraq. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tThe report landed on the desks of senior US officials on Tuesday. The speed of the leak suggested that senior policymakers want to make sure the assessment reaches Mr Bush. Some senior policymakers have complained of being frustrated in their efforts to provide Mr Bush with analyses that are more sombre than the optimistic views of Vice-President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tThe CIA analysis suggests US policy in Iraq has reached a turning point, as the Bush administration moves to escalate the war against the guerillas and accelerate the transfer of power. In Baghdad, the US military announced yesterday it would become more aggressive against former Saddam Hussein loyalists, foreign and Iraqi Islamic extremists and Iraqi nationalists. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tThe top US general in Iraq, Lieutenant-General Ricardo Sanchez, said: The most important message is that we are all going to get pretty tough, and that’s what is needed to defeat the enemy, and we are definitely not shy of doing that when it is required. Such a campaign, however, could cause more civilian casualties and drive more Iraqis to the side of the insurgents. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tThe CIA assessment also warns that none of the postwar Iraqi political institutions and leaders have shown an ability to govern or even preside over drafting a constitution or holding an election. US officials have become deeply frustrated by infighting, nepotism and inaction within the 25-member Iraqi Governing Council.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\t[Notre recommandation est que ce texte doit \u00eatre lu avec la mention classique \u00e0 l’esprit, Disclaimer: In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 107, this material is distributed without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this information for non-profit research and educational purposes only..]<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pour la premi\u00e8re fois, le mot terrible : d\u00e9faite 13 novembre 2003 Pour la premi\u00e8re fois dans les milieux officiels am\u00e9ricains, le mot est prononc\u00e9, et il concerne l’Irak bien entendu : d\u00e9faite. Un rapport de la CIA avertit le gouvernement de cette possibilit\u00e9 d’une d\u00e9faite en Irak. C’est le quotidien Philadelphia Inquirer qui, le… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[982,3104],"class_list":["post-65793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-faits-et-commentaires","tag-bremer","tag-cia"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65793","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65793"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65793\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65793"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65793"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65793"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}