\t17 mars 2004 Certains conseillers autour du pr\u00e9sident GW Bush ont pris l’exemple des attentats de Madrid pour r\u00e9activer l’hypoth\u00e8se du g\u00e9n\u00e9ral Franks<\/a>, et d’autres apr\u00e8s lui<\/a>, sur la possibilit\u00e9 d’une attaque terroriste aux USA avant les \u00e9lections, pendant la p\u00e9riode de la campagne \u00e9lectorale. L’id\u00e9e a aussit\u00f4t suivi son chemin, aboutissant chez les habituels experts-commentateurs de cette sorte d’hypoth\u00e8ses. On retrouve les habituels lieux communs, avec quelques erreurs, \u00e9galement communes chez les Am\u00e9ricains.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t(Par exemple : \u00ab The implications of this are fairly staggering, agreed political psychologist Stanley Renshon of City University of New York. This is the first time that a terrorist act has influenced a democratic election. This is a gigantic, loud wakeup call. There’s no one they’d like to have out of office more than George W. Bush.<\/em> \u00bb La r\u00e9alit\u00e9 est que ce n’est pas l’acte terroriste qui a influenc\u00e9 les \u00e9lections du 14, mais le comportement d’Aznar, en tentant de manipuler l’acte terroriste \u00e0 son avantage, r\u00e9activant ainsi toute l’opposition populaire \u00e9norme \u00e0 l’engagement espagnol dans cette guerre. Il est par contre possible que la pens\u00e9e des terroristes soit proche de celle de Stanley Renshon.)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tL’information sur l’hypoth\u00e8se d’une attaque aux USA, ou plut\u00f4t les commentaires qui en sont faits, n’ont rien de d\u00e9cisivement nouveau, non plus que, par exemple, les hypoth\u00e8ses sur la strat\u00e9gie de la tension<\/a> qui sont d’un domaine proche. Tout cela, surtout, a pour effet de r\u00e9activer un climat<\/a>. Voici quelques extraits de cette d\u00e9p\u00eache de Associated Press du 15 mars (qu’on retrouve \u00e9galement sur NewsDay.com<\/a>) \t\u00ab Even before the bombings in Madrid, White House officials were worrying that terrorists might strike the United States before the November elections.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bb Even Now, with the Socialists’ surprise election victory in Spain, analysts believe the ballot box rebuke of one of President Bush’s closest allies in the war in Iraq could embolden terrorists to try the same tactics in the United States to create fear and chaos.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bb That’s an amazing impact of a terrorist event, to change the party in power, said Jerrold Post, a former CIA profiler who directs the political psychology program at George Washington University.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bb The implications of this are fairly staggering, agreed political psychologist Stanley Renshon of City University of New York. This is the first time that a terrorist act has influenced a democratic election. This is a gigantic, loud wakeup call. There’s no one they’d like to have out of office more than George W. Bush.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bb In political terms, the question is whether an attack would cause Americans to rally around Bush or blame him for the nation’s vulnerabilities.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bb Bush has made the war on terrorism his trademark issue, spending tens of billions of dollars at home and abroad in the name of fighting terrorists. Polls show it’s his strongest suit in his re-election battle against Democrat John Kerry.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bb Traditionally, in times of peril, Americans have supported their president. After Sept. 11, 2001, Bush soared in the polls. That standing has softened over time but still remains strong, reinforced by the fact that America has not been hit again.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bb People are critical of Bush in lots of ways but they still give him pretty good grades for dealing with the war on terrorism, said pollster Andy Kohut.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bb If there were an attack, he said, the traditional effect is a rally.<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tL’hypoth\u00e8se d’une attaque terroriste aux USA est largement reprise dans une autre publication, un article du 16 mars du Miami Herald, venu de Knight-Ridder et du Boston Globe<\/a>. Cette fois, on y est pr\u00e9cis puisqu’on y parle d’une October Surprise<\/em>, c’est-\u00e0-dire une attaque surprise dans les derni\u00e8res semaines de la campagne \u00e9lectorale. On ajoute m\u00eame des pr\u00e9cisions venues de sources officielles, bien entendu non identifi\u00e9es, concernant des communications dans les r\u00e9seaux d’Al Qa\u00efda sur l’\u00e9ventualit\u00e9 d’une telle attaque, qui seraient devenues particuli\u00e8rement denses en parlant de cette hypoth\u00e8se d’une attaque durant la campagne \u00e9lectorale.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n