{"id":65945,"date":"2004-04-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2004-04-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2004\/04\/23\/leffet-president-de-guerre\/"},"modified":"2004-04-23T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2004-04-23T00:00:00","slug":"leffet-president-de-guerre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2004\/04\/23\/leffet-president-de-guerre\/","title":{"rendered":"L’effet \u201cPr\u00e9sident de guerre\u201d<\/em><\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"

L’effet Pr\u00e9sident de guerre<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

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\t23 avril 2004 Dans son livre Pourquoi les Am\u00e9ricains se sont battus au Viet-n\u00e2m<\/em>, l’intellectuel conservateur Norman Podhoretz d\u00e9veloppait, parmi les causes de la d\u00e9faite, l’argument, repris depuis, que le pr\u00e9sident Johnson avait commis la faute de ne pas faire de cette guerre une cause nationale. Jusqu’\u00e0 ce qu’elle devienne une crise aux USA, la guerre avait \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e comme une op\u00e9ration de police, et cela bien que des forces de r\u00e9serve et, naturellement, des forces du contingent y aient d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 exp\u00e9di\u00e9es.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tDe ce point de vue, l’administration GW Bush a op\u00e9r\u00e9 l’op\u00e9ration inverse avec l’Irak. La guerre est pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e comme une cause nationale fondamentale, tandis qu’on \u00e9vite, ou tente d’\u00e9viter (on ne sait de quoi demain sera fait<\/a>) l’envoi du contingent en r\u00e9tablissant la conscription. Le r\u00e9sultat est, du point de vue politique int\u00e9rieur, tr\u00e8s avantageux. On s’en aper\u00e7oit avec les derni\u00e8res nouvelles concernant les sondages, qui sont bien pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es par le titre d’un article du groupe Knight Ridder Newspapers, du 20 avril<\/a>, donnant les derniers r\u00e9sultats : \u00ab Despite bad news out of Iraq, Bush regains lead in polls.<\/em> \u00bb L’article commente :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\t\u00ab Despite weeks of bad news about Iraq and questions about whether he should’ve done more to avert the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, President Bush has regained a lead over Democratic rival John Kerry and improved his standing on issues from war to education.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb Doubts about the war have grown and still could hurt Bush’s chances for re-election. But two new independent polls this week found that the president has gained versus Kerry on every major issue, is preferred over Kerry to handle the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism, and would defeat the Massachusetts senator if the election were today.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t()<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb The president leads Kerry by 48 percent to 43 percent among registered voters, with third party candidate Ralph Nader at 6 percent, according to an ABC-Washington Post survey. Bush leads 50 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, with Nader at 4 percent, according to a Gallup poll for CNN and USA Today.<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tCette \u00e9volution semblerait montrer que la tactique du Pr\u00e9sident de guerre menant une guerre g\u00e9n\u00e9rale et fondamentale dont l’Irak est une partie, d’ailleurs plus une position naturelle qu’une tactique d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9e comme on le sait, rec\u00e8le un effet mobilisateur constant en cas d’\u00e9v\u00e9nements dramatiques, fussent-ils d\u00e9favorables aux Am\u00e9ricains, comme c’est le cas en Irak. Il s’agit d’un effet patriotique maximal, tr\u00e8s fort \u00e0 cause du conformisme am\u00e9ricain, qui touche la population mais qui touche aussi le Congr\u00e8s ; ce conformisme pousse \u00e0 soutenir d’instinct tout ce qui est institutionnel, quels que soient les actes des institutions impliqu\u00e9es, et qu’y a-t-il de plus institutionnel que le Pr\u00e9sident ? La calamiteuse pr\u00e9sidence GW, responsable de tous les revers et de toutes les erreurs, responsable de cette non moins calamiteuse guerre irakienne, cette pr\u00e9sidence qui devrait \u00eatre balay\u00e9e dans les sondages, non seulement tient bon, mais se retrouve en position avantageuse pour la r\u00e9\u00e9lection.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tFace \u00e0 cela, Kerry est coinc\u00e9 parce qu’il se refuse \u00e0 suivre la seule voie possible, qui est une voie de rupture : l’opposition \u00e0 la guerre, la d\u00e9nonciation de la guerre, m\u00eame au prix d’un mea culpa<\/em> (j’ai vot\u00e9 pour la guerre, je me suis tromp\u00e9). Si Kerry ne change pas, il restera constamment sur la d\u00e9fensive et a de tr\u00e8s fortes chances d’\u00eatre battu.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tLa dissidence US est tr\u00e8s consciente de ce probl\u00e8me, comme le note le site Tomgram, le 21 avril<\/a>, traitant justement du \u00ab John Kerry’s war dilemma<\/em> \u00bb.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\t\u00ab Put another way, in the worst month the Bush administration has experienced thus far, Kerry still seems to be running scared. His war experience, his very identification with Vietnam which, at this moment, one might imagine to be a strength, seems to have sent him reeling, as Jonathan Schell describes below. In these same weeks, Kerry has managed to lay out a position so close to Bush’s on Iraq stay the course, put an international \u00a0\u00bbface\u00a0\u00bb on the occupation, keep the troops in place, and so on that the two are nearly indistinguishable; and, on the Bush-Sharon position on the Middle East keep the West Bank settlements, conduct extrajudicial assassinations of enemies, build the wall, and so on just announced to an astounded world, he has, if anything, gone the president one better.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00ab Only the other day, he could be found stumping Florida with Senator Joe Lieberman, whose hawkish Iraq position didn’t raise even a seismic hiccup among Democratic voters anywhere in America in the primary season. Recent polls show that against Kerry’s less than challenging campaign so far, the president seems to be at least holding his own, despite the Clarke revelations, his 9\/11 Commission problems, and the disintegrating position of the American occupation forces in Iraq. In the case of recent CNN-USA TODAY and Washington Post-ABC polls, he’s doing better than that, beating Kerry in each (with Ralph Nader in the latter pulling in a hefty 6% of the prospective vote).<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L’effet Pr\u00e9sident de guerre 23 avril 2004 Dans son livre Pourquoi les Am\u00e9ricains se sont battus au Viet-n\u00e2m, l’intellectuel conservateur Norman Podhoretz d\u00e9veloppait, parmi les causes de la d\u00e9faite, l’argument, repris depuis, que le pr\u00e9sident Johnson avait commis la faute de ne pas faire de cette guerre une cause nationale. Jusqu’\u00e0 ce qu’elle devienne une… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-65945","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-faits-et-commentaires"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65945","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65945"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65945\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65945"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65945"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65945"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}