{"id":65948,"date":"2004-04-26T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2004-04-26T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2004\/04\/26\/un-message-de-notre-ami-friedman\/"},"modified":"2004-04-26T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2004-04-26T00:00:00","slug":"un-message-de-notre-ami-friedman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2004\/04\/26\/un-message-de-notre-ami-friedman\/","title":{"rendered":"Un message de notre ami Friedman<\/em><\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un message de notre ami Friedman<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\t25 avril 2004 Restons attentifs aux commentaires de Thomas Friedman, qui relaie souvent, pour les tester, certaines pens\u00e9es officieuses des officiels de l’administration, ou, encore plus souvent, de l’establishment<\/em> washingtonien dans un sens plus large. D’o\u00f9 l’int\u00e9r\u00eat de son commentaire du jour<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tSous un titre assez anodin (\u00ab The 3 most likely scenarios in Iraq<\/em> \u00bb dans l’\u00e9dition IHT, \u00ab Rue John Kennedy<\/em> \u00bb dans l’\u00e9dition du New York Times<\/a>), Friedman nous confie tout de m\u00eame une conviction qui est, par les temps qui courent, pour le moins r\u00e9volutionnaire : \u00ab Here’s the good news: I doubt we will be in Iraq a year from now certainly not in large numbers<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tFriedman nous offre trois sc\u00e9narios. Aucun n’est particuli\u00e8rement glorieux pour les \u00c9tats-Unis et leurs ambitions d’empire civilisateur et de faiseur de d\u00e9mocratie. Le temps de prendre des gants est fini.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\t\u00ab We are now in the middle of a low-grade civil war in Iraq for who will control the place after we leave. That’s the bad news. Here’s the good news: I doubt we will be in Iraq a year from now certainly not in large numbers. One of three things is likely to happen. First, the security and economic situations could continue to spiral downward, creating a Mogadishu-like situation in which we will have to fight our way out.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb Second, we might manage, with the help of the United Nations, to organize a reasonably legitimate Iraqi caretaker government to which we can hand \u00a0\u00bblimited\u00a0\u00bb sovereignty on June 30. But that won’t stop our opponents. They will go on attacking U.S. forces to provoke a U.S. retaliation that will embarrass the caretaker government, make its leaders look like our stooges and pressure it to throw the United States out.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb Third, the least-bad scenario is that we will be able to stick it out and, with the United Nations, conduct a decent election by the end of the year that brings a legitimate Shiite-led Iraqi government to power. I doubt that such a government is going to want to have U.S. troops protecting it for very long, and it will either invite us to leave gradually or insist that we put our forces under a UN umbrella.<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tCette intervention de Friedman est un bon thermom\u00e8tre. Elle indique que le climat \u00e0 Washington est de plus en plus d\u00e9senchant\u00e9, non seulement sur l’affaire irakienne, mais plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement sur la politique expansionniste et militariste actuellement conduite. Elle ne signifie pas que la moindre d\u00e9cision est prise pour un retrait, mais plut\u00f4t que la psychologie \u00e9volue d\u00e9sormais tr\u00e8s s\u00e9rieusement, que le d\u00e9bat sur le retrait est officieusement ouvert et que de nouveaux coups de boutoir ou simplement la poursuite de l’actuel processus d’aggravation de la situation pourraient pr\u00e9cipiter une d\u00e9cision de retrait. En d’autres mots, la question pos\u00e9e le 7 avril par Patrick Buchanan<\/a> \u00e0 propos de l’Irak : \u00ab Is Failure Now an Option?<\/em> \u00bb peut d\u00e9sormais recevoir, sans h\u00e9siter, une r\u00e9ponse positive.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un message de notre ami Friedman 25 avril 2004 Restons attentifs aux commentaires de Thomas Friedman, qui relaie souvent, pour les tester, certaines pens\u00e9es officieuses des officiels de l’administration, ou, encore plus souvent, de l’establishment washingtonien dans un sens plus large. D’o\u00f9 l’int\u00e9r\u00eat de son commentaire du jour. Sous un titre assez anodin (\u00ab The… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-65948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-faits-et-commentaires"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65948","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65948"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65948\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}