{"id":65976,"date":"2004-05-20T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2004-05-20T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2004\/05\/20\/un-empire-aux-abois-un-president-qui-retrecit-avant-detre-peut-etre-reelu\/"},"modified":"2004-05-20T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2004-05-20T00:00:00","slug":"un-empire-aux-abois-un-president-qui-retrecit-avant-detre-peut-etre-reelu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2004\/05\/20\/un-empire-aux-abois-un-president-qui-retrecit-avant-detre-peut-etre-reelu\/","title":{"rendered":"Un empire aux abois, un Pr\u00e9sident qui r\u00e9tr\u00e9cit avant d’\u00eatre peut-\u00eatre r\u00e9\u00e9lu<\/em><\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un empire aux abois, un Pr\u00e9sident qui r\u00e9tr\u00e9cit avant d’\u00eatre peut-\u00eatre r\u00e9\u00e9lu<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

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\t20 mai 2004 Les USA s’appr\u00eatent \u00e0 retirer un dixi\u00e8me de leurs forces de Cor\u00e9e du Sud, qui constituent la moiti\u00e9 des troupes imm\u00e9diatement aptes au combat dans la zone d\u00e9militaris\u00e9e. GW nous assure joliment que ce retrait n’affecte en rien l’engagement US dans la r\u00e9gion<\/a>. Pour la r\u00e9alit\u00e9, bien s\u00fbr, c’est Chalmers Johnson, historien et sp\u00e9cialiste de l’Asie \u00e0 l’Universit\u00e9 de Californie de San Diego, qui est int\u00e9ressant \u00e0 \u00e9couter : \u00ab The greatest limiting factor on the empire right now is manpower. They are running out of it.<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tLe sentiment \u00e0 Washington ne cesse d’empirer et tourne au pessimisme apocalyptique, un peu partout, au Congr\u00e8s, au sein de l’administration elle-m\u00eame<\/a>. Une peinture r\u00e9aliste, et m\u00eame d’un r\u00e9alisme effrayant, de la situation nous est faite par Julian Borger, du Guardian, ce jour<\/a>. Borger nous rapporte ce jugement g\u00e9n\u00e9ral d’un faucon fameux dans les milieux conservateurs avant d’encha\u00eener sur un tableau plus large :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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\t\u00ab I believe we are absolutely on the brink of failure. We are looking into the abyss, General Joseph Hoar, a former commander in chief of US central command, told the Senate foreign relations committee. The apocalyptic language is becoming increasingly common here among normally moderate and cautious politicians and observers.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb Larry Diamond, an analyst at the conservative Hoover Institution, said: I think it’s clear that the United States now faces a perilous situation in Iraq. We have failed to come anywhere near meeting the post-war expectations of Iraqis for security and post-war reconstruction. There is only one word for a situation in which you cannot win and you cannot withdraw quagmire.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb The growing fear is that the US will able neither to defeat the insurgents in Iraq nor to find an honourable means of withdrawal, while every week there will be an haemorrhaging of US credibility in the Arab world and far beyond. With at least 82% of the Iraqis saying they oppose American and allied forces, how long do you think it will be before the Iraqi government asks our departure? said Senator Joseph Biden, the senior Democrat on the foreign relations committee.<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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\tCe qui appara\u00eet de plus en plus nettement est que la crise se d\u00e9veloppe parce que les \u00c9tats-Unis se trouvent dans une situation de blocage absolu ; blocage politique, sans aucun doute, illustration de ce qu’on nomme un bourbier \u00ab a situation in which you cannot win and you cannot withdraw<\/em> \u00bb ; blocage militaire, \u00e9galement, comme le montre Jim Lobe dans un texte o\u00f9 il d\u00e9taille les probl\u00e8mes d’effectifs<\/a> qui constituent une paralysie majeure de l’appareil militaire am\u00e9ricain, avec la cons\u00e9quence qu’on a vue en Cor\u00e9e du Sud<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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\t\u00ab According to Paul Sperry of the Hoover Institution, the Pentagon has just launched a massive nationwide call-up of former service members a total of 118,000 Individual Ready Reserves (IRR) who have not fully completed their eight-year contractual obligation to the Army.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb These people, who have all but formally signed their release papers, are now being ordered to report to their Army National Guard or Army Reserve units for possible activation in support of missions in Iraq, Afghanistan and other locations.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb News of the IRR activation coincided with Rumsfeld’s order to send 3,600 soldiers from the Army’s Second Infantry Division based near the demilitarized zone (DMZ) across from North Korea, another \u00a0\u00bbrogue state\u00a0\u00bb with WMD, to Iraq. The troops constitute 10 percent of U.S. forces in South Korea and one-half of combat-ready ground troops there.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb While the Pentagon insisted the shift will not affect Washington’s ability to defend South Korea, the significance of removing troops confronting North Korea was missed by few here. As one unnamed administration official told the Nelson Report, a private newsletter, We are pulling out our conventional deterrent force in the midst of a self-declared nuclear crisis with North Korea!<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t()<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb The administration has come to recognize that relying on reserves and the national guard are not sufficient for the nature of the occupation they’re involved in, and the only ones that are available are in Asia, noted John Gershman, an Asia analyst at New York University, who added the move suggests to Pyongyang that Washington is not going to launch a strike against it any time soon.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb Mobilizing the passive reserves [IRR] is probably the last thing they can do before either cutting back on what they’re doing, or go to the military draft, or go hire foreigners, but the country can’t really afford that, according to [Chalmers] Johnson, whose 2003 book, Sorrows of Empire, deals with U.S. military forces overseas.<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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\tA Washington, la paralysie est compl\u00e8te. L’on ne peut faire qu’y attendre les pouss\u00e9es successives de la crise, les unes apr\u00e8s les autres, et tenter d’en \u00e9carter les effets comme on \u00e9cope une voie d’eau. L’immense inconnue de la situation, c’est l’effet sur l’\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle. Il est possible qu’on soit d’ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0 arriv\u00e9 \u00e0 une situation de blocage l\u00e0 aussi, qui constitue du reste la plus grave hypoth\u00e8se qu’on puisse envisager : une situation de blocage de la d\u00e9mocratie elle-m\u00eame, lorsque la popularit\u00e9 d’un dirigeant s’effondre et que cet effondrement n’est nulle part r\u00e9percut\u00e9 dans les intentions de vote des \u00e9lecteurs, sans qu’aucune entrave n’intervienne.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tOn peut envisager une situation extraordinaire o\u00f9 GW Bush serait r\u00e9\u00e9lu malgr\u00e9 une formidable situation de perte de l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 due \u00e0 la crise en Irak et \u00e0 son effet dans l’opinion publique. (L’indice d’approbation de l’action du pr\u00e9sident est tomb\u00e9 en trois mois, de f\u00e9vrier \u00e0 avril, de 61% \u00e0 55%, puis 42%.) Il s’agit d’un effet pervers de la d\u00e9mocratie de communication, avec la tendance accentu\u00e9e par la communication de s\u00e9parer les personnes en cause de la politique \u00e0 laquelle ils pr\u00e9sident. On serait dans la situation d’un ex\u00e9cutif ayant perdu toute son autorit\u00e9 tout en conservant le contr\u00f4le de la puissance am\u00e9ricaine, \u00e0 l’heure o\u00f9 la crise irakienne demanderait une autorit\u00e9 sans faille. D\u00e9sormais, les Am\u00e9ricains sont plac\u00e9s devant cette sorte d’hypoth\u00e8ses. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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Un empire aux abois, un Pr\u00e9sident qui r\u00e9tr\u00e9cit avant d’\u00eatre peut-\u00eatre r\u00e9\u00e9lu 20 mai 2004 Les USA s’appr\u00eatent \u00e0 retirer un dixi\u00e8me de leurs forces de Cor\u00e9e du Sud, qui constituent la moiti\u00e9 des troupes imm\u00e9diatement aptes au combat dans la zone d\u00e9militaris\u00e9e. GW nous assure joliment que ce retrait n’affecte en rien l’engagement US… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-65976","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-faits-et-commentaires"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65976","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65976"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65976\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65976"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65976"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65976"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}