{"id":66109,"date":"2004-10-24T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2004-10-24T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2004\/10\/24\/lelection-du-chaos-a-la-guerre-civile\/"},"modified":"2004-10-24T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2004-10-24T00:00:00","slug":"lelection-du-chaos-a-la-guerre-civile","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2004\/10\/24\/lelection-du-chaos-a-la-guerre-civile\/","title":{"rendered":"L’\u00e9lection, du chaos \u00e0 la guerre civile\u2026<\/em><\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"

L’\u00e9lection, du chaos \u00e0 la guerre civile<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

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\t24 octobre 2004 Tout le monde attend quelque chose d’inhabituel de cette \u00e9lection am\u00e9ricaine. Les hypoth\u00e8ses d’une attaque terroriste semblent de plus en plus \u00e9cart\u00e9es<\/a>. John Dean, ancien conseiller juridique de Nixon et d\u00e9missionnaire lors de l’affaire du Watergate, donne sa vision juridique, qui satisfait cette attente de l’inhabituel : le chaos post-\u00e9lectoral<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tD’une fa\u00e7on g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, on juge que les deux candidats sont tr\u00e8s proches, assez pour renouveler l’esp\u00e8ce de match nul’ de 2000<\/a>, avec l’imbroglio juridique qui s’ensuivit. On retrouverait le cas, toujours valable, des swing states<\/em> (dont la Floride), dont les r\u00e9sultats tiendraient \u00e0 quelques centaines de voix, \u00e9videmment aussit\u00f4t contest\u00e9s. Dean r\u00e9sume la situation de cette fa\u00e7on, en prenant en compte le v\u00e9ritable enjeu des \u00e9lections : les grands \u00e9lecteurs’.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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\t\u00ab There are a total of 538 electoral votes. A simple majority of 270 wins. (If the candidates tie at 269, the tie is broken by the House of Representatives.)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb President Bush seems to have a lock on 176 electoral votes from twenty states: AL-9, AK-3, AZ-10, GA-15, ID-4, IN-10, KS-6, KY-8, LA-9, MS-6, MT-3, NE-5, ND-3, OK-7, SC-3, TN-11, TX-34, UT-5, VA-13 and WY-3. Senator Kerry seems to have a lock on 153 electoral votes in ten states and the District of Columbia: CA-55, CT-7, DE-3, HI-4, IL-21, MD-10, MA-12, NY-31, RI-4, VT-3 and DC-3.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb Six states with 51 electoral votes tilt toward Bush: AR-6, CO-9, MO-11, NV-5, NC-15 and WV-5. But six states with 63 electoral votes lean toward Kerry: ME-3 (note that Maine apportions its four electoral votes, and one vote still appears to be up for grabs), MI-17, MN-10, NJ-15, OR-7 and WA-11.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb Suppose all the tilting states indeed go in the direction in which they are tilting. That gives Bush\/Cheney 227 electoral votes, and Kerry\/Edwards 216 votes.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb There are still eight true swing states. In total, they have 95 electoral votes: IA-7, FL-27, ME-1, NH-4, NM-5, OH-20, PA-21, and WI-10.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb It is in these states that election 2004 will ultimately be resolved either in the voting booths, or in the courts. And note that none of these states, alone even Florida, with its 27 votes – will give either candidate a win.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb That means we could see simultaneous litigation in a number of states chosen either because the polling was especially close, or because there are significant numbers of vulnerable votes to try to disqualify. It will be recalled that the possibility for multi-state litigation arose in 2000, before Florida became the focus; it could easily become a reality in 2004.<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tLes perspectives envisag\u00e9es par Dean sont particuli\u00e8rement d\u00e9stabilisatrices, avec notamment la possibilit\u00e9 d’un blocage juridique pouvant s’\u00e9tendre sur des semaines, voire des mois, voire des ann\u00e9es ! La cause de ce pessimisme tient \u00e0 ces trois constats :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t• La situation statistique est aussi bloqu\u00e9e qu’elle l’\u00e9tait en 2000, avec un \u00e9lectorat polaris\u00e9 \u00e0 50-50 et les swing states<\/em> comme bombes \u00e0 retardement, et avec des situations techniques (votes enregistr\u00e9s ou pas, techniques de vote, etc) permettant toutes les contestations juridiques possibles.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t• Contrairement \u00e0 2000, les d\u00e9mocrates sont cette ann\u00e9e d\u00e9cid\u00e9s \u00e0 ne rien c\u00e9der. Ils ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 une armada d’avocats en place<\/a>, pr\u00eats \u00e0 intervenir juridiquement. De leur c\u00f4t\u00e9, les r\u00e9publicains sont \u00e9galement, comme en 2000, pr\u00eats \u00e0 intervenir, bien d\u00e9cid\u00e9s \u00e0 ne pas abandonner le pouvoir.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t• La situation politique est extr\u00eamement tendue et extraordinairement polaris\u00e9e. On ne parle plus d’hostilit\u00e9 mais de haine entre les deux bords, et autant d’un c\u00f4t\u00e9 que de l’autre.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tL’hypoth\u00e8se d’une dur\u00e9e d’un blocage de l’\u00e9lection sur plusieurs mois, voire plus, est toute th\u00e9orique. La situation politique est si tendue qu’il est hautement improbable que des troubles n’\u00e9clatent pas avant la fin d’un tel d\u00e9lai. On peut \u00e9galement envisager tous les effets au niveau de la situation internationale et de l’autorit\u00e9 du pouvoir en place. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\t\u00ab It may be days or weeks, if not months, before we know the final results of this presidential election. And given the Republican control of the government, if Karl Rove is on the losing side, it could be years: He will take every issue (if he is losing) to its ultimate appeal in every state he can.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb The cost of such litigation will be great – with the capital of citizens’ trust in their government, and its election processes, sinking along with the nation’s (if not the world’s) financial markets, which loathe uncertainty. After Bush v. Gore, is there any doubt how the high Court would resolve another round? This time, though, the Court, too, will pay more dearly. With persuasive power as its only source of authority, the Court’s power will diminish as the American people’s cynicism skyrockets.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb It does not seem to trouble either Rove or Bush that they are moving us toward a Twenty-first Century civil war and that, once again, Southern conservatism is at its core. Only a miracle, it strikes me, can prevent this election from descending into post-election chaos. But given the alternatives, a miracle is what I am hoping for.<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L’\u00e9lection, du chaos \u00e0 la guerre civile 24 octobre 2004 Tout le monde attend quelque chose d’inhabituel de cette \u00e9lection am\u00e9ricaine. Les hypoth\u00e8ses d’une attaque terroriste semblent de plus en plus \u00e9cart\u00e9es. John Dean, ancien conseiller juridique de Nixon et d\u00e9missionnaire lors de l’affaire du Watergate, donne sa vision juridique, qui satisfait cette attente de… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[855,1480],"class_list":["post-66109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-faits-et-commentaires","tag-kerry","tag-rove"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66109"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66109\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}