{"id":66113,"date":"2004-10-29T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2004-10-29T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2004\/10\/29\/100000-irakiens-et-une-victime-supplementaire-le-mythe-de-la-guerre-technologique-propre\/"},"modified":"2004-10-29T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2004-10-29T00:00:00","slug":"100000-irakiens-et-une-victime-supplementaire-le-mythe-de-la-guerre-technologique-propre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2004\/10\/29\/100000-irakiens-et-une-victime-supplementaire-le-mythe-de-la-guerre-technologique-propre\/","title":{"rendered":"100.000 Irakiens et une victime suppl\u00e9mentaire : le mythe de la guerre technologique \u201cpropre\u201d<\/em><\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"

100.000 Irakiens et une victime suppl\u00e9mentaire : le mythe de la guerre technologique propre<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

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\t29 octobre 2004 100.000, le chiffre est net et d’autant plus impressionnant. Le sp\u00e9cialiste am\u00e9ricain de l’Irak Juan Cole \u00e9crit : \u00ab [I]f Roberts and Burnham are right, the US has already killed a third as many Iraqi civilians in 18 months as Saddam killed in 24 years.<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tRoberts et Burnham sont les deux auteurs d’une \u00e9tude r\u00e9alis\u00e9e sous les auspices de la c\u00e9l\u00e8bre Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health de Baltimore (Maryland), en coop\u00e9ration avec des m\u00e9decins irakiens appartenant au College of Medicine Al-Mustansiriya de l’universit\u00e9 de Bagdad. Le tout est publi\u00e9 par le prestigieux magazine britannique The Lancet<\/em> (acc\u00e8s payant<\/a>). Un tel patronage est d\u00e9cisif pour le cr\u00e9dit d’une information dans un monde qui ne fonctionne que par r\u00e9f\u00e9rence conformiste. On observera qu’il a m\u00eame convaincu Le Monde<\/em> de faire sa manchette de l’information<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tBien entendu, ces pr\u00e9cisions sur des pertes aussi consid\u00e9rables ont amen\u00e9 des r\u00e9actions tr\u00e8s vives. Au niveau politique, les Am\u00e9ricains sont en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral peu int\u00e9ress\u00e9s, comme d’habitude, et Tony Blair est une fois de plus l’objet des plus violentes attaques<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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\t\u00ab The figures provoked a furious response last night in Westminster. Clare Short, the former cabinet minister who resigned over the war, said: \u00a0\u00bbIt is really horrifying. When will Tony Blair stop saying it is all beneficial for the Iraqi people since Saddam Hussein has gone? How many more lives are to be taken? It is no wonder, given this tragic death toll, that the resistance to the occupation is growing.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb \u00a0\u00bbWe have all relied on Iraqi body counts from media reports. That is clearly an underestimate and this shows that it was a very big underestimate. It is truly dreadful. Tony Blair talks simplistically about it getting better in Iraq. These figures prove it is just an illusion.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb MPs said the assault on Fallujah expected after the US presidential election next Tuesday would add to the growing death toll among civilians. The figures are certain to provoke fresh demands at the Commons next week for Mr Blair to avoid further civilian deaths.<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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\tSur l’exactitude \u00e9ventuelle de ces estimations, les auteurs de l’\u00e9tude eux-m\u00eames restent tr\u00e8s prudents<\/a>. Pour en revenir \u00e0 l’appr\u00e9ciation du sp\u00e9cialiste Juan Cole, on peut citer ceci<\/a> de son commentaire :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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\t\u00ab The report is based on extensive household survey research in Iraq in September of 2004. Les Roberts and Gilbert Burnham found that the vast majority of the deaths were the result of US aerial bombardment of Iraqi cities, which they found especially hard on \u00a0\u00bbwomen and children.\u00a0\u00bb After excluding the Fallujah data (because Fallujah has seen such violence that it might skew the nationwide averages), they found that Iraqis were about 1.5 times more likely to die of violence during the past 18 months than they were in the year and a half before the war. Before the war, the death rate was 5 per thousand per year, and afterwards it was 7.9 per thousand per year (excluding Fallujah). My own figuring is that, given a population of 25 million, that yields 72,500 excess deaths per year, or at least 100,000 for the whole period since April 9, 2003.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb The methodology of this study is very tight, but it does involve extrapolating from a small number and so could easily be substantially incorrect. But the methodology also is standard in such situations and was used in Bosnia and Kosovo.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bb I think the results are probably an exaggeration. But they can’t be so radically far off that the 16,000 deaths previously estimated can still be viewed as valid. I’d say we have to now revise the number up to at least many tens of thousand which anyway makes sense. The 16,000 estimate comes from counting all deaths reported in the Western press, which everyone always knew was only a fraction of the true total. (I see deaths reported in al-Zaman every day that don’t show up in the Western wire services).<\/em> \u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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\tQuoi qu’il en soit de l’exactitude du chiffre, il faut surtout observer qu’il fait \u00e9voluer les pertes civiles irakiennes dans une dimension compl\u00e8tement nouvelle. (Il n’\u00e9tait jusqu’alors question que de 12.000 \u00e0 36.000 morts comme bornes minimale et maximale des estimations.) Cela va constituer un choc important, quant \u00e0 la gravit\u00e9 du conflit irakien et, de fa\u00e7on plus complexe et plus profonde, quant aux m\u00e9thodes de guerre des Am\u00e9ricains, et de l’imitation de ces m\u00e9thodes que pr\u00f4ne un establishment<\/em> militaire occidental fascin\u00e9.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tCe qui est d\u00e9sormais compl\u00e8tement en cause, c’est le concept de guerre propre, ou guerre de haute technologie et de haute pr\u00e9cision. On voit confirm\u00e9e l’id\u00e9e, d\u00e9j\u00e0 apparue lors du conflit afghan<\/a>, que les armes de haute pr\u00e9cision d\u00e9multiplient les pertes civiles adverses. Il s’av\u00e8re en effet impossible d’identifier justement les cibles, si tant est qu’on puisse parler de cibles dans des conditions de guerre o\u00f9 le renseignement (c’est-\u00e0-dire l’identification) s’av\u00e8re totalement catastrophique du c\u00f4t\u00e9 am\u00e9ricain. Si l’on ajoute les erreurs directes et la tendance \u00e0 la saturation du feu des Am\u00e9ricains, on arrive \u00e0 des campagnes d’erreurs de haute pr\u00e9cision (vous touchez de plein fouet une maison civile o\u00f9 se trouvent des civils innocents et causez de tr\u00e8s graves pertes humaines totalement injustifi\u00e9es). La haute technologie n’a pas chang\u00e9 les habitudes am\u00e9ricaines et le carpet bombing<\/em> de haute pr\u00e9cision est d\u00e9vastateur.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tAujourd’hui, les armes tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9cises (et \u00e0 \u00e9normes capacit\u00e9s destructrices) sont capables de rendre les campagnes am\u00e9ricaines largement aussi sanglantes, par exemple, que la campagne russe contre la Tch\u00e9tch\u00e9nie (les pertes tch\u00e9tch\u00e8nes n’ont jamais atteint 100.000 morts en 18 mois). Voil\u00e0 qui va compliquer la t\u00e2che dialectique des censeurs de Poutine et admirateurs des Am\u00e9ricains \u00e0 la fois, type Glucksman ou Kouchner. Voil\u00e0 qui va \u00e9galement contribuer \u00e0 r\u00e9duire encore un peu le cr\u00e9dit moral des Am\u00e9ricains, d\u00e9j\u00e0 en lambeaux.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tVoil\u00e0 enfin, et surtout, qui devrait faire r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir les grands strat\u00e8ges qui ne jurent que par les hautes technologies et l’exemple am\u00e9ricain pour nous promettre ces belles guerres humanitaires avec frappes chirurgicales et des pertes civiles r\u00e9duites au minimum pour ne pas choquer les m\u00e9dias et les t\u00e9l\u00e9spectateurs. C’est un pas de plus dans le sens d’une r\u00e9vision radicale de nos conceptions postmodernes de la guerre. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

100.000 Irakiens et une victime suppl\u00e9mentaire : le mythe de la guerre technologique propre 29 octobre 2004 100.000, le chiffre est net et d’autant plus impressionnant. Le sp\u00e9cialiste am\u00e9ricain de l’Irak Juan Cole \u00e9crit : \u00ab [I]f Roberts and Burnham are right, the US has already killed a third as many Iraqi civilians in 18… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[3236,705,1087,4379,4093],"class_list":["post-66113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-faits-et-commentaires","tag-afghanistan","tag-blair","tag-cole","tag-lancet","tag-short"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66113","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66113"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66113\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66113"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66113"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66113"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}