{"id":67589,"date":"2006-05-25T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2006-05-25T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2006\/05\/25\/la-vision-2006-de-liiss-est-crepusculaire\/"},"modified":"2006-05-25T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2006-05-25T00:00:00","slug":"la-vision-2006-de-liiss-est-crepusculaire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2006\/05\/25\/la-vision-2006-de-liiss-est-crepusculaire\/","title":{"rendered":"La vision 2006 de l&rsquo;IISS est cr\u00e9pusculaire"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><h2 class=\"titleset_a.deepblue\" style=\"color:#0f3955;font-size:2em;\">La vision 2006 de l&rsquo;IISS est cr\u00e9pusculaire<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>25 mai 2006 &mdash; L&rsquo;IISS de Londres (<a class=\"gen\" href=\"http:\/\/www.iiss.org\/\">International Institute of Strategic Studies<\/a>) est connu comme un des piliers du syst\u00e8me militaro-politique occidental et anglo-saxon. Qualifi\u00e9 d'\u00a0\u00bbind\u00e9pendant\u00a0\u00bb, l&rsquo;IISS est en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 un relais \u00e0 fa\u00e7ade ind\u00e9pendante pour le d\u00e9bat et la diffusion de la pens\u00e9e strat\u00e9gique dominante dans le monde de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 anglo-saxon et atlantique. L&rsquo;\u00e9dition annuelle de son annuaire analysant la situation strat\u00e9gique, les forces en pr\u00e9sence, etc., est un exercice qui fixe en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral les normes de la pens\u00e9e strat\u00e9gique de ce m\u00eame univers.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>On ne sait ce qu&rsquo;il faut dire de l&rsquo;\u00e9dition 2006 : fait-elle exception ou bien est-elle une fois de plus le reflet de ce monde strat\u00e9gique, mais pour mettre en \u00e9vidence son d\u00e9sarroi, voire sa panique devant les perspectives de la situation g\u00e9n\u00e9rale ? On a le choix pour la r\u00e9ponse qu&rsquo;on proposerait \u00e9ventuellement. Reste ce fait absolument frappant, et strat\u00e9giquement consid\u00e9rable qu&rsquo;il s&rsquo;agit sans aucun doute du constat le plus abrupt, le plus noir, venu d&rsquo;une source semi-officielle sur la situation strat\u00e9gique globale. Ce que nous d\u00e9crit l&rsquo;IISS, d&rsquo;une fa\u00e7on g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, c&rsquo;est une situation strat\u00e9gique g\u00e9n\u00e9rale bloqu\u00e9e pour les int\u00e9r\u00eats occidentaux (anglo-saxons), et promise \u00e0 \u00e9voluer vers une seule orientation : le pire.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Nous citons deux journaux londoniens qui pr\u00e9sentent le rapport 2006 de l&rsquo;IISS, chacun sous un angle sp\u00e9cifique, l&rsquo;un comme l&rsquo;autre aussi pessimiste.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>&bull; Le <a class=\"gen\" href=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/afghanistan\/story\/0,,1782478,00.html\">Guardian<\/a> met en \u00e9vidence l&rsquo;\u00e9tat g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de la situation strat\u00e9gique.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"normal\" style=\"font-size:1.05em;\">\n<p><p>&laquo; <em>The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the west&rsquo;s growing confrontation with Iran, and efforts to divest North Korea of its nuclear weapons are all approaching crucial turning points that could combine to create a perfect storm of simultaneous international crises, independent defence experts said yesterday. <\/em>[&#8230;] <em>John Chipman, <\/em>[IISS] <em>director general, said: \u00ab\u00a0Many parts of the world are engaged in brutal combat &#8230; Overall, the dangerous triptych of Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran continues to dominate the security agenda as do the wider, iconic problems of terrorism and proliferation.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em> &raquo;<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><p>&bull; Chose assez rare, on trouve dans le document IISS certaines remarques qui sont des critiques directes de la politique washingtonienne, et au profit de pays de bien mauvaise fr\u00e9quentation. Ce passage, par exemple, qui concerne le constat du blocage des n\u00e9gociations avec la Cor\u00e9e du Nord, et qui en fait implicitement, voire presque explicitement porter la responsabilit\u00e9 \u00e0 Washington :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"normal\" style=\"font-size:1.05em;\">\n<p><p>&laquo; <em>The IISS said North Korea had obtained enough plutonium to build between five and 11 nuclear weapons and long-running talks to induce Pyongyang to disarm were at an impasse. In an implicit criticism of Washington&rsquo;s policy of ostracism and financial sanctions, Dr Chipman said North Korea had concluded that \u00ab\u00a0the Bush administration is not serious about negotiations and [has] hostile intent\u00a0\u00bb.<\/em> &raquo;<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><p>&bull; Le <a class=\"gen\" href=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/afghanistan\/story\/0,,1782400,00.html\">Daily Telegraph<\/a> choisit comme approche la question iranienne, pour annoncer aux pays occidentaux, et particuli\u00e8rement aux USA, une bien vilaine cascade de mauvaises nouvelles, &mdash; avec cette am\u00e8re cerise sur le g\u00e2teau que l&rsquo;IISS arrive \u00e0 glisser qu&rsquo;il y a quelque chose de plus catastrophique encore que la tr\u00e8s probable production d&rsquo;une arme nucl\u00e9aire par l&rsquo;Iran, et que c&rsquo;est l&rsquo;attaque US que certains s&#8217;emploient \u00e0 pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 Washington pour emp\u00eacher cette fabrication :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"normal\" style=\"font-size:1.05em;\">\n<p><p>&laquo; <em>It is all but impossible to stop Iran developing nuclear weapons, a leading British think-tank said yesterday, as the world&rsquo;s powers struggled to find a common strategy to face the threat.<\/em> [&#8230; T]<em>he International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) suggested that neither diplomacy nor military action to destroy the nuclear facilities was likely to succeed. \u00ab\u00a0There is a consensus emerging that an Iranian nuclear capability is both inevitable, and certainly bad,\u00a0\u00bb said the IISS director, John Chipman, presenting an assessment of the international military balance.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>&raquo; <em>He said America&rsquo;s Arab allies in the Gulf feel \u00ab\u00a0the only thing worse than a nuclear-armed Iran is a US military strike against the country, especially if it were still left with a nuclear option\u00a0\u00bb. Bombing Iran might provoke retaliation against coalition forces in Iraq, attacks by Hizbollah on Israel and attempts to choke the flow of oil through the Gulf.<\/em> &raquo;<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><h3 class=\"subtitleset_b.deepblue\" style=\"color:#0f3955;font-size:1.65em;font-variant:small-caps;\">Implacable constat d&rsquo;un \u00e9chec universel<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>L&rsquo;\u00e9dition 2006 de l&rsquo;IISS sent la fin de r\u00e8gne (pour Blair et Bush) et, surtout, la fin catastrophique des ambitions de l'\u00a0\u00bbanglosph\u00e8re\u00a0\u00bb proclam\u00e9es triomphalement en 2002-2003 apr\u00e8s l&rsquo;attaque 9\/11. Il est difficile de ne pas rapprocher la sortie de cette analyse g\u00e9n\u00e9rale du voyage de Tony Blair \u00e0 Washington qui se d\u00e9roule \u00e0 partir d&rsquo;aujourd&rsquo;hui dans une atmosph\u00e8re fun\u00e8bre. Le <em>Times<\/em> de <a class=\"gen\" href=\"http:\/\/www.timesonline.co.uk\/article\/0,,3-2196062,00.html\">ce matin<\/a> nous expose l&rsquo;extraordinaire diff\u00e9rence de perception de Tony Blair des deux c\u00f4t\u00e9s de l&rsquo;Atlantique :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"normal\" style=\"font-size:1.05em;\">\n<p><p>&laquo; <em>In the US he is still seen as a clear-eyed braveheart who swiftly recognised 9\/11 as an historical turning point that had profoundly affected the American psyche, and then &mdash; better than anyone, including Mr Bush &mdash; articulated the case for war. In Britain, however, he is more often regarded these days as a naive and vainglorious fool, the poodle who loyally followed the President and has, consequently, tainted his own premiership with alleged falsehoods and failure.<\/em> &raquo;<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><p>Tout compte fait et pour r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 notre interrogation initiale, l&rsquo;International Institute of Strategic Studies reste finalement assez \u00e9gal \u00e0 lui-m\u00eame dans le r\u00f4le de porte-parole de la communaut\u00e9 strat\u00e9gique transatlantique et anglo-saxonne. Il en exprime aujourd&rsquo;hui parfaitement la crise profonde, qui semble parvenir \u00e0 son paroxysme. C&rsquo;est toute une politique, toute une ambition universelle et toute une vision du monde qui sont en train de s&rsquo;effondrer tandis que s&rsquo;accumulent les paroxysmes de crises diverses jusqu&rsquo;\u00e0 cr\u00e9er, &mdash; expression favorite d\u00e9cid\u00e9ment d&#8217;emploi courant, &mdash; &laquo; <em>a perfect storm of simultaneous international crises<\/em> &raquo;.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>L&rsquo;analyse 2006 de l&rsquo;IISS ne nous apprend rien de nouveau sur la situation strat\u00e9gique du monde. Elle nous en fait ressentir beaucoup, par contre, sur la situation de la crise int\u00e9rieure de l&rsquo;Occident, et particuli\u00e8rement de l&rsquo;Occident anglo-saxon. Commenc\u00e9e par ses ambitions ext\u00e9rieures, la grande crise du 11 septembre 2001 en arrive, au travers de cette aggravation constante des crises ext\u00e9rieures auxquelles nos dirigeants n&rsquo;ont, \u00e0 aucun moment, jamais rien compris, \u00e0 revenir au centre de toutes choses : la crise int\u00e9rieure fondamentale de la civilisation occidentale sous domination anglo-saxonne depuis 1941-45.<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La vision 2006 de l&rsquo;IISS est cr\u00e9pusculaire 25 mai 2006 &mdash; L&rsquo;IISS de Londres (International Institute of Strategic Studies) est connu comme un des piliers du syst\u00e8me militaro-politique occidental et anglo-saxon. Qualifi\u00e9 d&rsquo;\u00a0\u00bbind\u00e9pendant\u00a0\u00bb, l&rsquo;IISS est en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 un relais \u00e0 fa\u00e7ade ind\u00e9pendante pour le d\u00e9bat et la diffusion de la pens\u00e9e strat\u00e9gique dominante dans le&hellip;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[5426,705,868,3228,3590,857,2773,5427,4137],"class_list":["post-67589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-faits-et-commentaires","tag-afghhanistan","tag-blair","tag-bush","tag-crise","tag-iiss","tag-irak","tag-iran","tag-perfect","tag-storm"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67589"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67589\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}