{"id":67982,"date":"2006-09-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2006-09-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2006\/09\/11\/le-prix-de-gwot\/"},"modified":"2006-09-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2006-09-11T00:00:00","slug":"le-prix-de-gwot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2006\/09\/11\/le-prix-de-gwot\/","title":{"rendered":"Le prix de GWOT"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><p>Mark N. Katz, professeur de gouvernance et de politique \u00e0 la George Mason University, dit son inqui\u00e9tude devant la <strong>perception<\/strong> des pays \u00e9trangers du d\u00e9clin de la puissance US \u00e0 cause des ressources engag\u00e9es dans la guerre contre la terreur (GWOT). Cette perception entra\u00eenera un d\u00e9clin substantiel de l&rsquo;influence US.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tKatz signale le cas de Ruksana Kibria, une professeur des relations internationales \u00e0 l&rsquo;universit\u00e9 de Dhaka, au Bengladesh. Une longue analyse de Kibria explique que la mont\u00e9e en puissance de la Chine va constituer le grand \u00e9v\u00e9nement des ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir et que cet \u00e9v\u00e9nement poussera le Bengladesh \u00e0 se rapprocher de la Chine, ne serait-ce que pour \u00e9quilibrer l&rsquo;influence de l&rsquo;Inde mais aussi pour se m\u00e9nager les meilleures relations possibles avec la Chine. Dans l&rsquo;analyse de Kibria, les USA n&rsquo;entrent gu\u00e8re en ligne de compte, justement \u00e0 cause de la perception de la r\u00e9duction acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e de sa puissance.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tL&rsquo;important dans cette analyse est effectivement le mot perception. A partir du moment o\u00f9 des pays ont cette perception, ils sont conduits \u00e0 prendre des mesures pr\u00e9paratoires avant m\u00eame que le d\u00e9clin US les touche directement. De ce fait, ils alimentent ce d\u00e9clin et renforcent cette perception du d\u00e9clin,  cercle vicieux parfait en l&rsquo;occurrence. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tLa conclusion de Katz est nette (dans une d\u00e9p\u00eache <em>Spacewar.com<\/em>\/UPI du <a href=\"http:\/\/www.spacewar.com\/reports\/The_Long_Term_Cost_Of_GWOT_999.html\" class=\"gen\">9 septembre<\/a> :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00ab<em>In other words, if the United States continues to fight the Global War on Terror as it is now doing, Kibria does not anticipate that it will be strong enough to counter China. Other countries, then, will have to react to a rising China without significant American assistance. And in her view, since Bangladesh and even India will be unable to counter the rise of China, they will be better off seeking to accommodate and befriend it.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00ab<em>Some, of course, would call this appeasement. Maybe it is. But if others come to believe, as Kibria does, that America&rsquo;s prosecution of the global war on terror will only weaken the United States over time, this will have profound implications for international relations. For the more governments that believe America will not be able to help them with their security concerns, the more that they may seek their security through accommodating powerful, undemocratic states such as China.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00ab<em>This would, of course, be bad for America since it would reduce  or even eliminate  its influence in countries that try to ensure their security through accommodating a rising China. But it could also be bad for them since, as history shows, powerful dictatorships are prone to exploit their less powerful allies.&rsquo; Yet trying to make such an accommodation might appear not just tempting, but vital to smaller states if they come to believe (whether realistically or not) that America will be unable to help them.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00ab<em>I very much hope that Professor Kibria&rsquo;s vision of American power declining as a result of the Global War on Terror proves false. I fear, though, not just that her vision could come true, but that others will believe that it will come true and will act accordingly. That may well be the true long-term cost of how America is pursuing the Global War on Terror.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><p>\tMis en ligne le 11 septembre 2006 \u00e0 10H41<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mark N. Katz, professeur de gouvernance et de politique \u00e0 la George Mason University, dit son inqui\u00e9tude devant la perception des pays \u00e9trangers du d\u00e9clin de la puissance US \u00e0 cause des ressources engag\u00e9es dans la guerre contre la terreur (GWOT). Cette perception entra\u00eenera un d\u00e9clin substantiel de l&rsquo;influence US. Katz signale le cas de&hellip;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5878,2899,5879,4661,3090,5877],"class_list":["post-67982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-bengla","tag-declin","tag-desh","tag-gwot","tag-influence","tag-katz"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67982","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67982"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67982\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}