16 octobre<\/a>). Apr\u00e8s avoir annonc\u00e9 sa pr\u00e9diction jusqu’\u00e0 en donner en termes de pourcentage la possibilit\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 la p\u00e9riode, il analyse les conditions de la situation iranienne avant de terminer par l’explication de l’in\u00e9luctabilit\u00e9 de l’attaque.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00abAfter careful study of recent moves and statements by the Bush Administration, I have concluded that there is at least a 10% chance of an American attack on Iran before the November 7 Congressional elections and about a 90% chance before the administration’s end in 2008. In this and following articles I will explain that prediction, illustrate what moves are now being made the prepare for war, analyze what the results of such actions would be and, finally, discuss what alternatives America has to bring about what it wishes to achieve in Iran. I begin with the prediction.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t()<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\t\u00bbSo why do I predict an American attack on Iran?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThe answer is composed of the same elements I have described: Mr. Bush’s belief that he has a God-given task which he must accomplish before he leaves office and perhaps even before the forthcoming Congressional elections might cripple his means of action. His belief that what his own intelligence experts tell him is wrong, that Iran actually is about to acquire the bomb, is stirring the pot of Middle Eastern terrorism and is a threat to the existence of Israel. Finally, he believes he has the authority, given by the American people in his two elections and through Congressional approval of his war with Afghanistan, to act.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tMis en ligne le 17 octobre 2006 \u00e0 15H24<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Le distingu\u00e9 professeur William R. Polk donne son analyse des possibilit\u00e9s d’attaque de l’Iran par les USA. L’avis de Polk est int\u00e9ressant parce qu’il s’agit d’une autorit\u00e9 prestigieuse de ce domaine aux USA. (Une carri\u00e8re de planificateur au d\u00e9partement d’Etat [1961-65], de professeur d’histoire, de direction acad\u00e9mique [du Center for Middle Eastern Studies de l’universit\u00e9… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2870,2773,6015,6016],"class_list":["post-68107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-attaque","tag-iran","tag-polk","tag-possibilites"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68107","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68107"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68107\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68107"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68107"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68107"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}