\t14 d\u00e9cembre 2006 Un peu d’imagination et vous renversez la proposition. Du pour sauver l’Irak, vous devenez copains avec l’Iran (th\u00e8se de l’ISG-Baker, o\u00f9 l’Iran est appel\u00e9 \u00e0 collaborer en Irak) au pour sauver l’Irak, vous attaquez l’Iran, il n’y a qu’un tout petit pas. Il est d\u00e9j\u00e0 franchi, saut\u00e9, \u00e9limin\u00e9. Pour certains esprits, cela ne fait aucun doute, et, sans doute, pour celui de GW Bush.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\t(Il est possible que la prochaine crise institutionnelle des USA soit : faut-il destituer le pr\u00e9sident pour avoir ill\u00e9galement attaqu\u00e9 l’Iran ? Nous avons deux bonnes ann\u00e9es pour cela.)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tArnaud de Borchgrave, parfois tr\u00e8s critique du pouvoir, sp\u00e9cialiste des th\u00e8ses muscl\u00e9es mais toujours inform\u00e9 \u00e0 des sources originales, nous pr\u00e9sente la th\u00e8se de la fuite en avant. (C’est un article \u00e9dit\u00e9 par UPI, en date du 12 d\u00e9cembre<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abIsrael is obsessed about Iran. Acute but understandable paranoia has replaced rational discourse. Lebanon was a disaster for Israel and Iraq a disaster for America. Some political soothsayers in Washington are predicting that President Bush is limbering up for the biggest U-turn in his political life. Think again. The French have an expression for what will probably come next La Fuite En Avant. The literal translation doesn’t hack it. Loosely interpreted, it means evading an issue with a headlong rush somewhere else.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tBorchgrave ne tarit pas de d\u00e9tails et d’appr\u00e9ciations abruptes sur l’isolement actuel des USA, sur la fa\u00e7on dont le reste du monde consid\u00e8re les efforts (?) actuels pour sortir de la crise irakienne, y compris le rapport Baker, tenu en pi\u00e8tre estime. De l\u00e0 se d\u00e9duit la position de GW Bush, lui-m\u00eame persuad\u00e9, dans un autre sens mais pour la m\u00eame conclusion, de la v\u00e9ritable signification du rapport Baker, et GW conduit par ses r\u00e9actions et son simplisme \u00e0 une autre sorte d’isolement, \u00e0 l’int\u00e9rieur du syst\u00e8me washingtonien dans ce cas : \u00abFrom Buenos Aires to Berlin and from Brussels to Beijing, ISG was a devastating indictment of a multi-billion dollar boondoggle. In Tehran and Pyongyang, the two remaining capitals in the axis of evil, and in Damascus, axis of lesser evil, cliches bristled about paper tigers and giants-with-feet-of-clay. Which is precisely why President Bush is not about to accept ISG’s findings. President Bush sees himself as a lone Winston Churchill figure from the 1930s railing against his somnolent colleagues as they appeased Adolf Hitler. And like Churchill at the end of World War II, he was not elected to preside over the dissolution of the American empire.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tBorchgrave d\u00e9taille un rapport transmis \u00e0 la Maison-Blanche, pour renforcer le sens de l’urgence des chefs de l’administration contre cet ennemi qui devient le facteur fondamental de la crise g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, l’Iran, bien s\u00fbr, et l’ennemi qu’il faut donc d\u00e9truire. Voici donc le raisonnement simple tel qu’il est pr\u00e9sent\u00e9, conduisant \u00e0 la fuite en avant, c’est-\u00e0-dire, bien s\u00fbr l\u00e0 encore, l’attaque contre l’Iran. C’est la fameuse maxime de Foch (variation sur le th\u00e8me ma droite recule, ma gauche est menac\u00e9e, mon centre est enfonc\u00e9, j’attaque) transpos\u00e9e \u00e0 une situation colossale d’ampleur et d’urgence, par des gens \u00e0 la fois aux abois et persuad\u00e9s de disposer encore d’une puissance qu’ils ont perdue en r\u00e9alit\u00e9, et indiff\u00e9rents \u00e0 la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 comme l’on sait ; a recipe for disaster<\/em>, selon la formule courante<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abReinforcing President Bush’s gut feeling this week was a paper by Gen. Chuck Wald, recently retired as EUCOM commander, and Chuck Vollmer, president of VII Inc., which does strategic analysis for the Pentagon. With the entry of Iran into the equation, they wrote, the next phases of Operation Iraqi Freedom could possibly include … a major invasion of Iran and pro-Iranian forces against Western forces in the region and Israel, and\/or a global energy crisis.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbRather than planning withdrawal from Iraq, says the Wald-Vollmer paper, we may be better served to plan for repositioning in this strategically important region. While withdrawal may be necessary in Iraq, withdrawal from the region would precipitate a global balance-of-power shift toward the Iran-Russia-China axis, which would be very detrimental for the energy dependent West.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t()<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbFor President Bush, this was no time to go wobbly, as Margaret Thatcher, when she was Prime Minister, urged Bush 41 not to do after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990. A bigger danger than Iraq is Iran. It would stand to gain most from a U.S. defeat in Iraq. And Iran has also made clear it has no intention of abandoning its nuclear ambitions.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbIsrael is obsessed about Iran. Acute but understandable paranoia has replaced rational discourse. Lebanon was a disaster for Israel and Iraq a disaster for America. Some political soothsayers in Washington are predicting that President Bush is limbering up for the biggest U-turn in his political life. Think again. The French have an expression for what will probably come next La Fuite En Avant. The literal translation doesn’t hack it. Loosely interpreted, it means evading an issue with a headlong rush somewhere else.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbIsrael also has plenty of reasons for alarm in the ISG report. When Baker-Hamilton talk about a Palestinian settlement that includes the right of return for millions of Palestinians, this can only mean, in Israeli eyes, the destruction of the purely Jewish state, on par with the bats in president Ahmadinejad’s belfry when he says the holocaust never happened and therefore Israel should be wiped off the map.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThe major problem with bombs away over Iran’s nuclear installations is that Ahmadinejad may be asking Allah for just that. It would coalesce worldwide Muslim opinion behind the latest victim of Zionist American imperialism. It would also produce the kind of regional mayhem that Ahmadinejad sees as a precondition for the return to earth of the 12th Imam, the Mahdi. He’s the 5-year-old boy who vanished 1,100 years ago who will lead the world back to prosperity under the banner of Islam.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n \tLe texte de Borchgrave est int\u00e9ressant parce qu’il exprime bien le sens d’une situation extraordinairement contrast\u00e9e. Il y a d’une part une situation proche de la d\u00e9route (en Irak, mais \u00e0 Washington \u00e9galement et de plus en plus), marqu\u00e9e par le d\u00e9sordre, le chaos, un caract\u00e8re incontr\u00f4lable qui para\u00eet irr\u00e9sistible ; situation d’ailleurs renforc\u00e9e d’une fa\u00e7on obsessionnelle par des sentiments de la m\u00eame sorte, et exacerb\u00e9s, venus de Tel Aviv, o\u00f9 l’on vit dans une atmosph\u00e8re de d\u00e9route et d’obsession de la riposte \u00e0 la fois.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tIl y a d’autre part une obsession de l’agressivit\u00e9 militariste, qui n’a pas d\u00e9cru, qui s’accro\u00eet m\u00eame, \u00e0 mesure de l’anxi\u00e9t\u00e9 de la perception de la d\u00e9route. Fuite en avant certes, on dirait m\u00eame, si l’on osait, mais osons apr\u00e8s tout : d\u00e9route en avant<\/p>\n<\/p>\nPourquoi pas la fuite en d\u00e9route?<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n