Intelligence analysts place great store in sources’ record for reliability and the historical record. We would be forced to classify Tony Blair as a known prevaricator who, for reasons still not entirely clear, has a five-year record of acting as man’s best friend for Bush. If the President needs a casus belli, Blair will probably fetch it.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tL’analyse n’est pas d’une exceptionnelle originalit\u00e9. Elle s’appuie sur la possible utilisation de l’incident UK-Iran comme d’un casus belli<\/em> pour une attaque contre l’Iran, non sans marquer combien cette affaire pr\u00e9sente nombre d’\u00e9l\u00e9ments douteux. Disons que son int\u00e9r\u00eat r\u00e9side surtout dans le fait que les signataires sont tous d’anciens officiers de la CIA regroup\u00e9s dans une association informelle se donnant pour t\u00e2che d’\u00e9valuer l’\u00e9volution de la situation de la crise en cours (Washington, l’administration GW, Irak, Iran, etc.).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00abThe British are refusing to concede the possibility that its Marines may have crossed into ill-charted, Iranian-claimed waters and are ratcheting up the confrontation. At this point, the relative merits of the British and Iranian versions of what actually happened are greatly less important than how hotheads on each sideand particularly the Britishdecide to exploit the event in the coming days.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThere is real danger that this incident, and the way it plays out, may turn out to be outgoing British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s last gesture of fealty to President George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and neo-conservative advisers who, this time, are looking for a casus belli to justify air strikes on Iran.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbBush and Cheney no doubt find encouragement in the fact that the Democrats last week refused to include in the current House bill on Iraq war funding proposed language forbidding the White House from launching war on Iran without explicit congressional approval.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbIf the Senate omits similar language, or if the prohibition disappears in conference, chances increase for a pre-emptive US and\/or Israeli strike on Iran and a major war that will make the one in Iraq seem like a minor skirmish. The impression, cultivated by the White House and our domesticated media, that Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-majority states might favor a military strike on Iran is a myth.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbBut the implications go far beyond the Middle East. With the Russians and Chinese, the US has long since forfeited the ability, exploited with considerable agility in the 70s and 80s, to play one off against the other. In fact, US policies have helped drive the two giants together. They know well that it’s about oil and strategic positioning and will not stand idly by if Washington strikes Iran.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tMis en ligne le 31 mars 2007 \u00e0 18H33<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Depuis quelques jours, les rumeurs d’attaque contre l’Iran ont redoubl\u00e9, apr\u00e8s une p\u00e9riode de calme dans les nouvelles depuis janvier–f\u00e9vrier. Les hypoth\u00e8ses d’attaque venaient ces derniers jours surtout du c\u00f4t\u00e9 russe, mais on trouve d\u00e9sormais des sp\u00e9culations du c\u00f4t\u00e9 US. Le site Consortium.News publie une analyse d’un groupe de v\u00e9t\u00e9rans de la CIA qui examine… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2870,6556,2773,4464],"class_list":["post-68674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-attaque","tag-ex-cia","tag-iran","tag-parry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68674","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68674"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68674\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68674"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68674"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68674"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}