Times<\/em>, Gerard Baker d\u00e9veloppe une analyse des effets \u00e9conomiques de cette crise, avec mont\u00e9e du prix du p\u00e9trole, sur les USA. Chroniqueur sp\u00e9cialiste de l’Am\u00e9rique et tr\u00e8s pro-US, toujours prompt \u00e0 choisir l’analyse qui favorise les USA, l’avis de Baker est int\u00e9ressant dans ce cas parce qu’il n’est justement pas favorable aux USA. M\u00eame s’il pr\u00e9cise ne pas croire aux hypoth\u00e8ses de manuvre des Iraniens, Baker juge que ceux-ci ont toutes les raisons d’\u00eatre satisfaits des effets de leur action.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00abIntentional or otherwise, however, this engineered crisis has had one impact that must leave the Iranians feeling quite pleased with themselves. By raising fears of shortages in oil supply from the Gulf, it has led to a sharp spike in prices. And here Iran’s sense of timing at least seems impeccable. Crude prices had been rising for more than a month before these latest developments.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbA number of factors especially the belated arrival of winter in the United States and Western Europe and miscellaneous refining problems have pushed prices higher since late January. Spot crude prices were up by more than 15 per cent in the six weeks to mid-March; the British hostage crisis has added another 5 per cent to that in just a week.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThe timing is exquisite from another point of view the potential impact of higher oil costs on the US economy. Financial markets are now frail with fear that America is at an inflexion point that could herald a recession. The first quarter was bumpy enough as it was, what with volatile equity prices and nervousness about the health of some parts of the financial system, without another bout of concerns about energy prices.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbBut since late January, wholesale prices are almost 50 per cent higher than they were eight weeks ago and retail petrol prices are up by 25 per cent. The Iranians may or may not succeed in frustrating their potential enemies in the Middle East, but how sweet would it be if they could undermine the US economy and, at least for a while, pocket a few million extra from higher oil prices in the meantime?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbOf course, much sharper increases in energy prices last year did not derail the US economy and nor should this sudden rise especially if it proves temporary, as most analysts think it will. Yet there is a broader question about whether the US is now in a much more vulnerable condition than it was when crude prices were more than $70 a barrel late last summer.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tMis en ligne le 3 avril 2007 \u00e0 17H26<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Il y a un aspect \u00e9conomique important dans la crise des 15 marins et Marines britanniques d\u00e9tenus par les Iraniens. La tension qui a aussit\u00f4t grimp\u00e9, notamment aliment\u00e9e par des rumeurs d’attaque de l’Iran, a entra\u00een\u00e9 une hausse du prix du p\u00e9trole qui a eu ou qui fait envisager des r\u00e9percussions importantes. Ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments peuvent… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4094,3795,2773,3600,2730],"class_list":["post-68683","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-baker","tag-economie","tag-iran","tag-petrole","tag-russie"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68683","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68683"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68683\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68683"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68683"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68683"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}