{"id":68993,"date":"2007-07-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2007-07-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2007\/07\/10\/lapocalypse-un-peu-en-avance-sur-sa-feuille-de-route\/"},"modified":"2007-07-10T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2007-07-10T00:00:00","slug":"lapocalypse-un-peu-en-avance-sur-sa-feuille-de-route","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2007\/07\/10\/lapocalypse-un-peu-en-avance-sur-sa-feuille-de-route\/","title":{"rendered":"L’apocalypse un peu en avance sur sa feuille de route"},"content":{"rendered":"

La crise du p\u00e9trole, ou crise de l’\u00e9nergie si l’on veut \u00eatre plus complet, est une crise syst\u00e9mique \u00e0 plusieurs visages. Il y a la question des r\u00e9serves, la question de l’exploitation de ces r\u00e9serves avec l’\u00e9puisement des r\u00e9serves exploit\u00e9es et la vitesse d’exploitation de nouvelles r\u00e9serves, il y a la course entre le d\u00e9clin de l’offre et l’augmentation de la demande et ainsi de suite. L’AIE (Agence Internationale de l’Energie) nous annonce la premi\u00e8re crise de l’\u00e9nergie du si\u00e8cle (\u00e0 moins que nous y soyons d\u00e9j\u00e0 sans le savoir) pour tr\u00e8s vite, plus vite que pr\u00e9vu. Un crunch<\/em> (moment crucial, si vous voulez) est attendu dans les 5 ans. Le Financial Times<\/em> nous expose aujourd’hui<\/a> la chose :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abThe world is facing an oil supply crunch within five years that will force up prices to record levels and increase the west’s dependence on oil cartel Opec, the industrialised countries’ energy watchdog has warned.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbIn its starkest warning yet on the world’s fuel outlook, the International Energy Agency said oil looks extremely tight in five years time and there are prospects of even tighter natural gas markets at the turn of the decade.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe IEA said that supply was falling faster than expected in mature areas, such as the North Sea or Mexico, while projects in new provinces such as the Russian Far East, faced long delays. Meanwhile consumption is accelerating on strong economic growth in emerging countries.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe problem is exacerbated by the fact that supply from non-members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase at an annual pace of 1 per cent, or less than half the rate of the demand rise.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe widening gap between rising consumption and lagging non-Opec supply will force Opec to sharply increase its production in the next five years.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbLawrence Eagles, head of the IEA’s oil market division, told the Financial Times: If we get to the point were there is insufficient supply, the only way to balance the market will be through higher prices and a drop in demand.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tL’International Herald Tribune<\/em>, d’aujourd’hui<\/a> \u00e9galement, aborde le m\u00eame probl\u00e8me expos\u00e9 par l’AIE selon un autre point de vue : la r\u00e9sistance extraordinaire du monde globalis\u00e9 aux incitations \u00e0 r\u00e9duire la consommation d’\u00e9nergie. Mais est-ce si extraordinaire? Certes, les appels \u00e0 r\u00e9duire la consommation d’\u00e9nergie sont nombreux et pressants. A c\u00f4t\u00e9 de cela, tout \u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 jusqu’\u00e0 se toucher, r\u00e9sonnent les appels \u00e0 la croissance, \u00e0 la production, au commerce, au libre-\u00e9change, \u00e0 la p\u00e9n\u00e9tration des march\u00e9s, \u00e0 la consommation, et tout cela qui se fait n\u00e9cessairement par la consommation exponentiellement augment\u00e9e d’\u00e9nergie. Que faire? se demandait L\u00e9nine en septembre 1917.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abDespite four years of high prices and increasingly dire warnings about climate change, a new report Monday predicted that world oil demand would rise faster than previously expected over the next five years while production slips, threatening a supply crunch.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbDemand is growing and as people become accustomed to higher prices they are starting to return to their previous trends of high consumption, said Lawrence Eagles, the head of oil markets analysis at the Paris-based International Energy Agency. It’s important that we have more investment and a greater emphasis on energy efficiency.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe pressures on fuel supplies are growing because booming Asian economies are using more fuel to power their prospering manufacturing industries and to supply growing numbers of automobiles amid a spurt in consumerism.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbRapid growth of the petrochemicals sector and low-cost airlines are other important factors lifting demand.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tMis en ligne le 10 juillet 2007 \u00e0 09H51<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La crise du p\u00e9trole, ou crise de l’\u00e9nergie si l’on veut \u00eatre plus complet, est une crise syst\u00e9mique \u00e0 plusieurs visages. Il y a la question des r\u00e9serves, la question de l’exploitation de ces r\u00e9serves avec l’\u00e9puisement des r\u00e9serves exploit\u00e9es et la vitesse d’exploitation de nouvelles r\u00e9serves, il y a la course entre le d\u00e9clin… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[6836,3228,6835,4522,3600],"class_list":["post-68993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-aie","tag-crise","tag-crunch","tag-energie","tag-petrole"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68993","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68993"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68993\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68993"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68993"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68993"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}