{"id":69047,"date":"2007-07-24T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2007-07-24T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2007\/07\/24\/une-catastrophe-du-xxieme-siecle\/"},"modified":"2007-07-24T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2007-07-24T00:00:00","slug":"une-catastrophe-du-xxieme-siecle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2007\/07\/24\/une-catastrophe-du-xxieme-siecle\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00abUne catastrophe du XXI\u00e8me si\u00e8cle<\/em>\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Effectivement, et pauvre XXI\u00e8me si\u00e8cle, \u00e9clair\u00e9 par les gloires douteuses du triomphe de la modernit\u00e9. C’est le titre de The Independent<\/em> concernant les inondations cons\u00e9cutives aux pluies torrentielles du 21 juillet: \u00abA 21st century catastrophe<\/em>\u00bb. L’Agence de l’Environnement observe: \u00abWe have not seen flooding of this magnitude before. The benchmark was 1947, and this has already exceeded it.<\/em>\u00bb (Les inondations de 1947 avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 les pires en 200 ans au Royaume-Uni.) Le journal commence son article<\/a> de ce jour par cette phrase somme toute si \u00e9trange, difficilement traduisible dans sa bri\u00e8vet\u00e9 pour nous (francophones) qui n’avons qu’un mot (temps) pour d\u00e9signer le temps qui passe et les conditions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques : \u00abThis weather is different from anything that has gone before.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tThe Independent<\/em> \u00e9crit :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abNo one can yet attribute the flood events of the past week, or indeed, those of June, when Yorkshire suffered what Gloucestershire and Worcestershire are suffering now – again from one single day’s rainfall directly to global warming. All climates have a natural variability which includes exceptional occurrences.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbBut the catastrophic extreme rainfall events of the summer of 2007, on 24 June and 20 July, are entirely consistent with repeated predictions of what climate change will bring.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbIt is nearly 10 years since the scientists of the UK Climate Impacts Programme first gave their detailed forecast of what global warming had in store for Britain in the 21st century and high up on the list was rainfall, increasing both in frequency and intensity.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThis was thought most likely to happen in winter, with summers predicted to be hotter and dryer. But yesterday Peter Stott of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, an author of a new scientific paper linking increases in rainfall to climate change, commented: It is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe paper by Dr Stott and other authors, reported in The Independent yesterday, detects for the first time a human fingerprint in rainfall increases in recent decades in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere that is, it finds they were partly caused by global warming, itself caused by emissions of greenhouse gases.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe public as a whole appears not to have taken the extreme rainfall predictions on board, thinking of climate change in terms of hotter weather. But the science community has been fully aware of it, and has steadily reinforced the warnings.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t()<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe floods of 2007 may eventually be regarded as a wake-up call to the warming climate’s rapidly approaching effects.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbNobody saw them coming. But that appears to be the way of a changing climate. In April 1989 Margaret Thatcher, then Prime Minister, gave her Cabinet a seminar on global warming at No 10 and one of the speakers was the scientist and green guru James Lovelock. A reporter asked him afterwards what would be the first signs of global warming. He replied: Surprises. Asked to explain, he said: The hurricane of October 1987 was a surprise, wasn’t it? There’ll be more.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tL’effet m\u00e9diatique des inondations au Royaume-Uni est consid\u00e9rable et en accro\u00eet \u00e9videmment la perception. La catastrophe, \u00e0 la fois in\u00e9dite dans ses conditions diverses et bien entendu tr\u00e8s spectaculaire, survient \u00e0 un moment o\u00f9 la question de la crise climatique a pris sa place au centre des pr\u00e9occupations de nombre de gouvernements europ\u00e9ens, notamment le gouvernement britannique (mais aussi le gouvernement fran\u00e7ais depuis l’arriv\u00e9e de Sarkozy). Elle va sans aucun doute acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer les regroupements et renforcer les initiatives de ces derniers mois. Il s’agit autant d’un \u00e9v\u00e9nement politique que d’un \u00e9v\u00e9nement g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, de la m\u00eame fa\u00e7on qu’il appara\u00eet de plus en plus difficile de caract\u00e9riser la crise climatique sans \u00e9voquer les liens qu’elle entretient avec nos conceptions politiques et \u00e9conomiques.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tIl est caract\u00e9ristique \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard que la catastrophe des inondations ait lieu au moment o\u00f9 se d\u00e9bat au Royaume-Uni un plan pour cr\u00e9er des habitations dans les r\u00e9gions touch\u00e9es. On y voit, \u00e0 la lumi\u00e8re des terribles chutes de pluie du 21 juillet, s’opposer les int\u00e9r\u00eats \u00e9conomiques et les n\u00e9cessit\u00e9s de d\u00e9fense contre les inondations. The Independent<\/em> \u00e9crit dans son \u00e9ditorial<\/a> : \u00abThe fact that yesterday’s Green Paper on house building coincided with mass flooding in central England was unfortunate for the Housing minister, Yvette Cooper. But for the rest of us it brought into grim focus the tensions that exist between economic development and the environment.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tMis en ligne le 24 juillet 2007 \u00e0 06H28<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Effectivement, et pauvre XXI\u00e8me si\u00e8cle, \u00e9clair\u00e9 par les gloires douteuses du triomphe de la modernit\u00e9. C’est le titre de The Independent concernant les inondations cons\u00e9cutives aux pluies torrentielles du 21 juillet: \u00abA 21st century catastrophe\u00bb. L’Agence de l’Environnement observe: \u00abWe have not seen flooding of this magnitude before. The benchmark was 1947, and this has… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[6045,3392,3228,3716,6890],"class_list":["post-69047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-catastrophe","tag-climatique","tag-crise","tag-siecle","tag-xxieme"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69047"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69047\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}