{"id":69100,"date":"2007-08-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2007-08-09T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2007\/08\/09\/selon-la-rand-le-retrait-us-dirak-est-inevitable-si-les-pertes-civiles-se-poursuivent-a-ce-rythme\/"},"modified":"2007-08-09T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2007-08-09T00:00:00","slug":"selon-la-rand-le-retrait-us-dirak-est-inevitable-si-les-pertes-civiles-se-poursuivent-a-ce-rythme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2007\/08\/09\/selon-la-rand-le-retrait-us-dirak-est-inevitable-si-les-pertes-civiles-se-poursuivent-a-ce-rythme\/","title":{"rendered":"Selon la RAND, le retrait US d&rsquo;Irak est in\u00e9vitable si les pertes civiles se poursuivent \u00e0 ce rythme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><p>Certainement le plus prestigieux <em>think tank<\/em> technique US, la RAND Corporation vient de prendre position sur la situation en Irak avec un rapport sur la situation. Le rapport est ambigu mais la conclusion,  notre conclusion est in\u00e9vitable.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tLe rapport dit plusieurs choses parfois contradictoires, souvent des enfoncements de portes ouvertes mais qui prennent des allures originales dans le contexte actuel \u00e0 Washington :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t La r\u00e9duction des violences entre civils devrait \u00eatre le but principal de l&rsquo;action des forces arm\u00e9es US dans le pays.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t Si cette violence pouvait \u00eatre r\u00e9duite il y aurait une raison majeure pour le maintien des forces US dans le pays et cette pr\u00e9sence pourrait \u00eatre maintenue.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t Mais il n&rsquo;y a pas lieu d&rsquo;\u00eatre optimiste. Au contraire, tout semble montrer que la violence ne semble pas pouvoir \u00eatre contr\u00f4l\u00e9e dans  l&rsquo;\u00e9tat actuel des choses.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t  Et si cette violence continue \u00e0 ce niveau, il deviendra tr\u00e8s vite impossible pour les forces arm\u00e9es US de r\u00e9sister aux pressions (aux USA) pour un retrait d&rsquo;Irak.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tUn point int\u00e9ressant du rapport et des commentaires qui l&rsquo;accompagnent, notamment d&rsquo;experts de la RAND, est que cette institution semble repousser l&rsquo;option de <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dedefensa.org\/article.php?art_id=4302 \" class=\"gen\">l&rsquo;Irak au Pays des Merveilles<\/a> et consid\u00e9rer que l&rsquo;actuelle offensive est un \u00e9chec. On peut donc ajouter que l&rsquo;offensive de communication et de promotion du gouvernement commenc\u00e9e \u00e0 la mi-juillet par un article de William Kristoll pour s&rsquo;assurer l&rsquo;exclusivit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 irakienne s&rsquo;av\u00e8re de plus en plus un \u00e9chec.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tQuelques extraits de la d\u00e9p\u00eache AFP relay\u00e9e par <a href=\" http:\/\/www.spacewar.com\/reports\/US_Withdrawal_Likely_Unless_Iraq_Violence_Falls_999.html\" class=\"gen\">SpaceWar.com<\/a> ce 9 ao\u00fbt :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00ab<em>A US withdrawal from Iraq may be impossible to resist unless violence against civilians falls substantially, a study funded by the US Air Force warned Wednesday. The study by the RAND Corporation said that reducing violence against Iraqi civilians should be the primary objective of US strategy as long as US forces are in Iraq. And it said the United States was likely to continue its approach to stabilizing the country until and unless violence escalates to the point that US officials decide that withdrawal is preferable.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>But it added that we are not optimistic about success in the near term and warned that pressure to withdraw US troops will become more and more difficult to resist if they cannot reduce the violence.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>If the number of Iraqis who die violently does not fall substantially by the summer of 2007, domestic political pressure to withdraw US forces may become impossible to resist, the report said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>US military officials say the surge in US forces this year has dampened the violence. But figures compiled by three Iraqi ministries and seen by AFP show that civilian deaths rose to 1,652 in July  a third more than the previous month, and slightly more than in February, the first month of surge.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>Olga Oliker, the lead author of the RAND report, titled Policy Options for Iraq: a Reassessment, said the current levels of violence in Iraq suggest that the surge is not reducing violence. Look, Iraqis continue to die at a very high rates, thousands leave the country every single day, she said in a telephone interview. I would say violence remains unacceptably high.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><p>\tMis en ligne le 9 ao\u00fbt 2007 \u00e0 08H35<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Certainement le plus prestigieux think tank technique US, la RAND Corporation vient de prendre position sur la situation en Irak avec un rapport sur la situation. Le rapport est ambigu mais la conclusion, notre conclusion est in\u00e9vitable. Le rapport dit plusieurs choses parfois contradictoires, souvent des enfoncements de portes ouvertes mais qui prennent des allures&hellip;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4395,857,4394,2895,4849,6263],"class_list":["post-69100","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-civiles","tag-irak","tag-pertes","tag-rand","tag-retrait","tag-surge"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69100"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69100\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}