In retrospect the crisis was inevitable<\/em>\u00bb par le constat que personne, il y a trois mois encore, ne semblait rien conna\u00eetre de l’\u00e9l\u00e9ment technique principal de la crise<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00abIt seems hard to believe that just three months ago, most people had never heard of sub-prime, let alone knew what it was. Yet the failure of thousands of low-income Americans to meet the interest payments on their sub-prime mortgages has precipitated one of the biggest crises in financial markets in recent history.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tCela \u00e9crit, il est bien entendu que cette crise \u00e9tait in\u00e9vitable, comme la raison nous le fait savoir r\u00e9trospectivement, et que, bien entendu encore, \u00abthe fear is that the worst may yet be to come<\/em>\u00bb:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00abIn retrospect, the crisis was inevitable. American families on low incomes were lent money way beyond their means with interest payments that were ratcheted up after the initial teaser rate expired.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tPour autant, nous ne sommes toujours pas en territoire connu malgr\u00e9 que les \u00e9l\u00e9ments de la crise sont connus et que la crise est d\u00e9sormais bien identifi\u00e9e parce qu’elle est bien engag\u00e9e. La terra incognita<\/em>, comme toujours, c’est la psychologie. L’analyse du Times<\/em> nous renseigne \u00e0 cet effet, en citant le dernier \u00e9l\u00e9ment et chronologiquement le plus r\u00e9cent, qui est la surprise constat\u00e9e apr\u00e8s l’injection de sommes importantes dans le circuit financier par la BCE et la Federal Reserve :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00abIn this environment of confusion and panic selling, with rumours of hedge funds going bust and banks sitting on billions of dollars in sub-prime losses, it is not surprising that the European Central Bank intervened this week, pumping more than 150 billion (\u00a3100 billion) of cash into the banking system to ward off fears of a global credit crisis.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbBut the reaction has been surprising. Rather than the markets being calmer, investors have become even more spooked, fearing that the ECB and the US Federal Reserve, which followed suit, would intervene in this way only if it knew something that the rest of us didn’t.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbAs one City source put it yesterday: It’s like there’s some sort of black box in the middle, some sort of nervousness that the banks have yet to come clean on what the problems are. To be honest, no one is quite sure who’s lost what.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tLe constat est effectivement psychologique et tient au climat politique tel qu’il s’est d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 avec la globalisation. Ce climat politique s’est constitu\u00e9 autour du d\u00e9veloppement de l’individualisme, de la perte des identit\u00e9s nationales et de la d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation des organismes publics comme acteurs impartiaux au service du bien public, de la pratique g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e de la manipulation de l’information au service des arguments partisans des uns et des autres, des acteurs publics comme du secteur bancaire dans ce cas. Le r\u00e9sultat est que l’intervention des grands organismes centraux d\u00e9pendant en principe de ces pouvoirs publics n’est plus g\u00e9n\u00e9rateur de la confiance dans l’impartialit\u00e9 des instruments politiques. D’o\u00f9 la r\u00e9action du public : s’il y a intervention, ce n’est pas curatif, comme annonc\u00e9 et comme il serait normal de penser, mais c’est pr\u00e9ventif, en fonction de facteurs d’aggravation ou de d\u00e9tonation qui sont dissimul\u00e9s \u00e0 ce m\u00eame public. Le r\u00e9sultat n’est pas l’apaisement mais l’inqui\u00e9tude renouvel\u00e9e avec le renforcement du soup\u00e7on. La psychologie est aujourd’hui totalement individualiste et se nourrit du soup\u00e7on syst\u00e9matique et de l’absence compl\u00e8te de consid\u00e9ration pour le pouvoir politique de type r\u00e9galien (dont devraient<\/strong> d\u00e9pendre ces organismes type BCE et Federal Reserve, et dont ils ne d\u00e9pendent plus<\/strong> en v\u00e9rit\u00e9, globalisation oblige). Le march\u00e9 r\u00e8gne, c’est-\u00e0-dire la concurrence, le soup\u00e7on, l’ivresse et la peur, et, au bout du compte, l’absence de r\u00e9f\u00e9rences respectables (ce qui signifie : dignes de respect). La crise de confiance est celle de l’irrespect parce que plus rien n’est aujourd’hui respectable.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tMis en ligne le 11 ao\u00fbt 2007 \u00e0 13H50<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
La crise financi\u00e8re qui flirte d\u00e9sormais avec les paroxysmes financiers et boursiers globalis\u00e9s rel\u00e8ve d’abord, au premier regard, de domaines techniques financiers et \u00e9conomiques qui nous sont, nous \u00e0 dedefensa.org, particuli\u00e8rement \u00e9trangers et dont nous nous m\u00e9fions consid\u00e9rablement. La tr\u00e8s caract\u00e9ristique incapacit\u00e9 des sp\u00e9cialistes \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir ou \u00e0 ne pas pr\u00e9voir ces crises ne cesse… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[6930,6932,6929,5393,2670,4207,6933,6931],"class_list":["post-69106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-bce","tag-confiace","tag-cris","tag-federal","tag-financiere","tag-reserve","tag-respect","tag-soupcn"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69106"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69106\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}