23 ao\u00fbt<\/a>. Evans-Pritchard s’\u00e9tonne de la fa\u00e7on dont les conditions de la crise sont oubli\u00e9es un peu partout. Il rappelle les conditions tr\u00e8s particuli\u00e8res qu’a connues le monde financier le jour o\u00f9 la Federal Bank a d\u00f9 intervenir de toute urgence, le 20 ao\u00fbt.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbSo no, the world has changed, dramatically. Whether this means a protracted global downturn and a profits recession depends on how quickly the central banks choose to respond, and how far they are willing to go.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbBen Bernanke is looking hawkish to me, given the shock of what happened on Monday when yields on 3-month US Treasury notes plunged at the fastest pace ever recorded, a panic flight to safety that no living trader had ever seen before.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbWhy? Because trust had collapsed to such a degree that players with a lot of cash no longer believed it safe to leave wealth in bank accounts, or the money market funds of brokerage companies (exposed as they are to short-term commercial paper and subprime CDOs). This did not occur after 9\/11, or in the heat of the October 1987 crash. Nor did was there such a banking panic in October 1929. (it hit in August 1931). If you think this is of no importance, or that this will pass swiftly, you have a strong nerve.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bb When you have a run on the money markets like this, it is bound to spill over into the real economy, said Albert Edwards, global strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bb We already thought there was a 40pc chance of a US recession before all this happened, but the risks are now much higher and don’t forget that rates on adjustable mortgages will keep rising until a peak next March, so the maximum pain will be in the second and third quarters of 2008, he said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThere will be large bankruptcies, and liquidity is not going to help because too many people bet the farm at the top of the cycle, and they’re now insolvent. A lot more bodies are going to be floating to the surface before this is over, he said.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tLa r\u00e9f\u00e9rence de Evans-Pritchard \u00e0 l’effondrement de la confiance (retrait d’argent liquide des banques) est particuli\u00e8rement impressionnante. Elle marque un \u00e9v\u00e9nement psychologique sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent dans l’histoire financi\u00e8re, m\u00eame en octobre 1929, sauf en ao\u00fbt 1931 qui est le d\u00e9but de la vraie<\/strong> Grande D\u00e9pression aux USA, caract\u00e9ris\u00e9e notamment par une impressionnate succession de faillites bancaires dues \u00e0 ces retraits. Ce facteur psychologique est \u00e9videmment essentiel pour envisager une pr\u00e9vision sur l’\u00e9volution de la situation financi\u00e8re du monde.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tMis en ligne le 27 ao\u00fbt 2007 \u00e0 15H25<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Qui se souvient encore qu’il y a une semaine, le monde tremblait sur ses bases en observant la crise financi\u00e8re? Le monde est revenu \u00e0 ses autres crises. Lawrence Summer, l’ancien secr\u00e9taire au tr\u00e9sor de l’administration Clinton, pense que le pire est encore \u00e0 venir : une r\u00e9cession aux USA. C’est ce que rapporte le… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3789,4585,3621,3228,5225,5393,4551,5029],"class_list":["post-69159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-3789","tag-bank","tag-confiance","tag-crise","tag-evans-pritchard","tag-federal","tag-panique","tag-summers"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69159"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69159\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}