Une approche diff\u00e9rente qui n’est certes pas inint\u00e9ressante nous propose de r\u00e9sumer la question de la lutte contre le terrorisme \u00e0 l’alternative : math\u00e9matiques ou psychologie? C’est une proposition int\u00e9ressante parce qu’elle implique une appr\u00e9ciation de comportements tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rents, aussi bien des troupes luttant contre le terrorisme que des terroristes eux-m\u00eames. La chose a un rapport avec l’actuelle offensive US en Irak, avec la question : le renforcement de force r\u00e9alis\u00e9 sert-il \u00e0 quelque chose? La pr\u00e9sence de forces plus importantes r\u00e9duit-elle l’activit\u00e9 des terroristes?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tUn article du Washington Post<\/em> du 3 septembre<\/a> aborde ce probl\u00e8me. Voici d’abord l’argument math\u00e9matique, assez proche de l’apparent sens commun : plus de forces \u00e9gale moins de terrorisme.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abIf the insurgency follows the rules of conventional mathematics, increasing the number of U.S. troops should produce a greater counterinsurgency effort and a more peaceful Iraq. That is what one analysis found. Alex Braithwaite of Colorado State University tracked insurgent attacks across Iraq’s provinces over a six-month period from January to June 2005. On average, there were 16 attempted attacks in each province each week. Braithwaite found an inverse relationship between insurgent attacks and the presence of U.S. troops.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThe insurgency is most severe where U.S. troop presence is low, Braithwaite said, as he presented his findings last week at the American Political Science Association meeting in Chicago. U.S. troops dampen the effects of the insurgency.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tL’autre conception est celle de la psychologie. Elle dit que l’arriv\u00e9e de troupes n\u00e9cessairement \u00e9trang\u00e8res, quel que soit le r\u00e9sultat imm\u00e9diat, suscite des r\u00e9actions psychologiques de r\u00e9sistance de type patriotique essentiellement, qui conduisent au terrorisme puisqu’aucun autre moyen de r\u00e9sistance n’existe. Dans ce cas, le sens commun semble se transformer en bon sens. C’est le professeur Pape<\/a>, dont nous avons d\u00e9j\u00e0<\/a> parl\u00e9, qui d\u00e9fend cette argumentation.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tLes \u00e9tudes de Pape se sont concentr\u00e9es sur les attaques-suicide, prouvant notamment que les motifs ne sont pas le plus souvent d’ordre religieux mais d’ordre patriotique. C’est un point essentiel parce qu’il contredit la th\u00e8se selon laquelle le terrorisme est directement le produit de l’islamisme fondamentaliste religieux, qui est le soutien politique essentiel des arguments radicaux en faveur de la guerre contre la terreur.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tApr\u00e8s avoir expos\u00e9 les recherches de Pape dans ces domaines, l’article expose ses pr\u00e9visions concernant la situation en Irak avec l’actuelle nouvelle strat\u00e9gie suivie par Washington. Pape offre des pr\u00e9visions pr\u00e9cises quant \u00e0 l’\u00e9volution de la situation en Irak dans les prochains mois.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abPape believes his findings offer empirical proof that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have not lowered the risk of suicide attacks. Contrary to President Bush’s argument that those wars provided the best way to lower the risk of suicide terrorism, Pape says the data show that launching overseas wars appears to be a way to increase the risk of suicide attacks. Improved homeland security, rather than foreign military occupations, the political scientist argues, is the way to lower the risk of suicide terrorism.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbUnlike many of the other theories circulating in Washington, his theory can be put to a simple test, Pape said. For the first time, Pape said in an interview at the political science convention in Chicago, the troop buildup in Iraq has aggressively targeted Shiite groups, such as Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army. Until now, suicide attackers have been largely limited to Iraq’s minority Sunni population. Pape believes that U.S. operations against Shiite groups will cause increasing numbers of Shiites to see the Americans the way many Iraqi Sunnis do as occupiers, rather than liberators.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbIf foreign occupations do indeed provide the strategic fuel for insurgencies, Pape said, Americans should expect to see a spate of Shiite suicide attacks. He said he could not predict when the insurgency would take that disturbing turn but said it would be soon: We’re heading toward the cocktail of conditions that favor suicide terrorism from the Shia.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \tMis en ligne le 4 septembre 2007 \u00e0 06H12<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Une approche diff\u00e9rente qui n’est certes pas inint\u00e9ressante nous propose de r\u00e9sumer la question de la lutte contre le terrorisme \u00e0 l’alternative : math\u00e9matiques ou psychologie? C’est une proposition int\u00e9ressante parce qu’elle implique une appr\u00e9ciation de comportements tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rents, aussi bien des troupes luttant contre le terrorisme que des terroristes eux-m\u00eames. La chose a un… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[7001,2660,3099,1267],"class_list":["post-69185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-mathematique","tag-pape","tag-psychologie","tag-terrorisme"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69185"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69185\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}