Lors d’un r\u00e9cent d\u00eener en ville du gratin de Washington, avec 18 invit\u00e9s (dont l’ancienne Premier ministre pakistanaise Bhutto), on joua au jeu du Attaquera? Attaquera pas? (l’Iran, bien s\u00fbr). Zbigniew Brzezinski, l’ancien conseiller de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale de Carter, d\u00e9fendit l’argument de l’attaque probable; Brent Scowcroft, ancien conseiller de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale de Bush p\u00e8re, plaida l’argument contraire. Puis on vota. Scowcroft eut deux voix, dont la sienne. (Pr\u00e9cisons: aucun des participants au d\u00eener n’\u00e9tait favorable \u00e0 l’attaque; on parle ici de pr\u00e9vision sur cette attaque.)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tC’est Steve C. Clemons, \u00e9diteur du site The Washington Note<\/a>, qui rapporte cette anecdote dans un article publi\u00e9 le 19 septembre<\/a> sur Salon.com<\/em>. L’article r\u00e9sume \u00e9videmment l’argument de Clemons, qui va au contraire de l’anecdote du vote 16 contre 2 qu’il nous rapporte : \u00abWhy Bush won’t attack Iran.<\/em>\u00bb C’est, aujourd’hui, un des rares articles optimistes \u00e0 propos des rumeurs d’attaque contre l’Iran.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tJim Lobe commente cet article de Clemons sur son propre site, le 20 septembre<\/a>. Plut\u00f4t, il en renforce l’argument, parce que Lobe, comme Clemons, ne croit pas que GW attaquera. Pour les deux commentateurs, GW n’a plus les moyens d’une telle attaque, ni l’autorit\u00e9, ni le pouvoir. Lobe repr\u00e9sente, avec Clemons, une tendance mod\u00e9r\u00e9e et r\u00e9aliste parmi les commentateurs washingtoniens, farouchement oppos\u00e9e aux n\u00e9o-conservateurs. En faveur de leur pronosic: les deux hommes sont \u00e9videmment des commentateurs de qualit\u00e9, particuli\u00e8rement bien inform\u00e9s. En d\u00e9faveur: ils parlent avec leur rison alors qu’une attaque, si elle a lieu, vaudra beaucoup \u00e0 la d\u00e9raison, \u00e0 l’hyst\u00e9rie, \u00e0 l’entra\u00eenement m\u00e9caniste. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tLobe renforce notablement l’un des arguments principaux de Clemons, l’opposition de la haute hi\u00e9rarchie militaire. Voici ce qu’en dit Lobe. Il mentionne \u00e9videmment nos amis d\u00e9sormais bien connus de l’U.S. Navy, dont l’amiral Fallon. Il pr\u00e9cise surtout que cette opposition est pr\u00eate \u00e0 s’exprimer spectaculairement en cas d’attaque, ce qui concerne \u00e9videmment Fallon<\/a> au premier chef. (Lobe cite un article de David Ignatius, du 16 septembre<\/a> dans le Washington Post<\/em>.)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abLike Steve, I also believe that Gates, the Joint Chiefs (particularly the incoming chairman), and the CentCom commander, Adm. William Fallon, are quite strongly opposed to getting into a war with Iran, that, unlike some of their predecessors, they will not be shy about voicing that opposition to Bush himself, and that, ultimately, they will be more influential with respect to any such decision than Rice or other engagers. Much of that assessment is based not only on Gates’ past support for engaging Iran and his participation in the Iraq Study Group, as well as published reports and his efforts to tone down provocative charges against Iran by military officers in Iraq, but also on anecdotes about some of the key people from their friends and acquaintances one picks up here and there in Washington. Of course, Gates still suffers in the White House from being perceived as Daddy’s boy by Bush and certainly by Cheney, but, if he’s backed up by men with lots of ribbons on their chests, he becomes much harder to dismiss. At this point, I think the Pentagon brass poses the biggest challenge to those in the administration who want to attack Iran, and I think David Ignatius’ disclosure in an important column, Cooling the Clash with Iran, last weekend that U.S. military commanders in the Gulf are pushing for an incidents at sea agreement with Iran speaks volumes.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \tMis en ligne mle 23 septembre 2007 \u00e0 14H46<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Lors d’un r\u00e9cent d\u00eener en ville du gratin de Washington, avec 18 invit\u00e9s (dont l’ancienne Premier ministre pakistanaise Bhutto), on joua au jeu du Attaquera? Attaquera pas? (l’Iran, bien s\u00fbr). Zbigniew Brzezinski, l’ancien conseiller de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale de Carter, d\u00e9fendit l’argument de l’attaque probable; Brent Scowcroft, ancien conseiller de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale de Bush p\u00e8re, plaida… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2870,6179,2773,1094],"class_list":["post-69253","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-attaque","tag-clemons","tag-iran","tag-lobe"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69253","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69253"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69253\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69253"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69253"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69253"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}