{"id":69318,"date":"2007-10-14T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2007-10-14T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2007\/10\/14\/le-maillon-faible-de-lalliance-neocon-en-afghanistan\/"},"modified":"2007-10-14T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2007-10-14T00:00:00","slug":"le-maillon-faible-de-lalliance-neocon-en-afghanistan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2007\/10\/14\/le-maillon-faible-de-lalliance-neocon-en-afghanistan\/","title":{"rendered":"Le maillon faible de l’Alliance neocon<\/em> en Afghanistan"},"content":{"rendered":"

Il semble qu’il faille prendre tr\u00e8s au s\u00e9rieux la question de la pr\u00e9sence allemande en Afghanistan. La prolongation d’un an du stationnement du contingent allemand en Afghanistan, au sein de l’ISAF, a \u00e9t\u00e9 vot\u00e9e le 12 octobre<\/a> par le Bundestag. Ce vote ne t\u00e9moigne en rien de la situation r\u00e9elle. La situation int\u00e9rieure de la politique d’engagement allemand en Afghanistan est de plus en plus pr\u00e9caire. Un article de l’hebdomadaire n\u00e9o-conservateur Weekly Standard<\/em> de ce m\u00eame 12 octobre<\/a> est un signe r\u00e9v\u00e9lateur. Il est \u00e9crit par Ulf Gartzke, collaborateur du journal, expert et \u00e9conomiste de la Hanns-Seidel-Foundation<\/a>, et homme de liaison entre la CSU d’Angela Merkel et les milieux activistes de Washington.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tL’article est int\u00e9ressant parce qu’il d\u00e9tonne, dans le ton, de l’habituelle vindicte qu’on trouve dans le Weekly Standard<\/em>. Il d\u00e9crit d’abord une situation allemande extr\u00eamement pr\u00e9caire, pouvant basculer en une crise profonde pour la coalition au pouvoir, nourrie par un sentiment extr\u00eame du public contre l’engagement allemand en Afghanistan:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abToday the German parliament is scheduled to vote on whether to extend the Bundeswehr’s 3,000-strong ISAF military deployment in Afghanistan for another year. While there is no doubt that Chancellor Merkel’s Grand Coalition has enough votes to get the measure passed, the much-anticipated Bundestag debate will certainly highlight growing opposition to what is increasingly viewed by the German public as a lost-cause mission with close to zero moral legitimacy. Public opinion in Germany, like in Canada, has already turned firmly against the ISAF\/OEF missions in Afghanistan, with recent surveys indicating that two-thirds of all Germans favor an immediate military withdrawal. For Chancellor Merkel and her conservative CDU\/CSU allies, the Bundeswehr’s bloody, seemingly open-ended Afghan engagement is a political time bomb that could easily blow up in the run-up to the next federal elections to be held by fall of 2009. In fact, Afghanistan is arguably Merkel’s only foreign policy weak spot and, at the same time, her biggest potential domestic political liability.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbSo far, only the post-Communist Left party is officially calling for a pullout. However, many left-wing MPs from the governing SPD party and even a growing number of CDU\/CSU MPs, under strong pressure from their local constituents, are more or less openly opposed to the Afghanistan mission. The Greens are divided, with some MPs indicating that they will vote for the ISAF extension, thus ignoring a recent, non-binding party congress resolution demanding exactly the contrary.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tLe passage le plus int\u00e9ressant est certainement celui o\u00f9 Gartzke s’adresse directement \u00e0 ceux, notamment \u00e0 Washington et dans les milieux necons<\/em>, qui font pression sur les Allemands pour un engagement accentu\u00e9. L\u00e0, de fa\u00e7on encore plus marquante, le ton contraste compl\u00e8tement avec l’habituel contenu du Weekly Standard<\/em>. Le texte va jusqu’\u00e0 mentionner la guerre contre la terreur comme une neocon crusade<\/em> dans un contexte qui n’est certainement pas approbateur de la part de l’auteur:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abGiven this highly charged domestic political context, aggressive demands from abroad that German troops leave the safe parts of northern Afghanistan to support terrorist-hunting operations in the South are not only misplaced but also play into the hands of those who want a complete German military pullout. First of all, the north is not a safe area. Suicide attacks on German forces there have increased sharply in recent weeks and months, bringing the total body count to 21. Second, if Germany’s continued military presence in Afghanistan were to be seen as the result of trying to conform to American pressures, the public diplomacy case for sustaining the German mission there would certainly be lost at the hands of left-wing demagogues waiting to play the potent card of latent anti-Americanism. Right now, there’s already a widespread perception in Germany that the Bundeswehr’s Afghan deployment is, above all, part of President Bush’s global war on terror, aka the neocon crusade.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tL’argument est ensuite d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 au niveau m\u00eame de la coh\u00e9sion de l’OTAN. Gartzke pr\u00e9sente une possible d\u00e9cision de d\u00e9sengagement de l’Allemagne comme le d\u00e9tonateur \u00e9ventuel d’une d\u00e9bandade g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de l’OTAN: \u00abFinally, any move by this key NATO ally to significantly reduce or withdraw its Afghan deployment could cause a dangerous chain reaction across the Alliance as other countries face serious pressure to do the same. German politicians and public opinion are already following the Afghanistan debates in Canada, the Netherlands, etc. quite closely and vice versa. After all, no one wants to be the last NATO member to sacrifice troops for a lost military cause when others are already beginning to retreat.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tIl faut insister sur cet article et les conditions inhabituelles qu’on a signal\u00e9es. Tout cela nous dit que l’inqui\u00e9tude de la direction allemande est extr\u00eame et qu’une crise int\u00e9rieure allemande \u00e0 propos de l’Afghanistan, avec des effets d\u00e9stabilisants incontr\u00f4lables, est d\u00e9sormais une r\u00e9elle possibilit\u00e9.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tMis en ligne le 14 octobre 2007 \u00e0 01H43<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Il semble qu’il faille prendre tr\u00e8s au s\u00e9rieux la question de la pr\u00e9sence allemande en Afghanistan. La prolongation d’un an du stationnement du contingent allemand en Afghanistan, au sein de l’ISAF, a \u00e9t\u00e9 vot\u00e9e le 12 octobre par le Bundestag. Ce vote ne t\u00e9moigne en rien de la situation r\u00e9elle. La situation int\u00e9rieure de la… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3236,2748,7126,1104,3333,7125,3332],"class_list":["post-69318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-afghanistan","tag-allemagne","tag-gartzke","tag-neocons","tag-standard","tag-ulf","tag-weekly"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69318"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69318\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}