Les points confus, obscurs ou incontr\u00f4lables ne manquent pas dans la crise de la BMDE. Un \u00e9ditorialiste de Novosti en offre un de plus, dans un texte publi\u00e9 le 24 octobre<\/a> (texte repris par UPI, puis par Spacewar.com<\/em>).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tIl s’agit d’une appr\u00e9ciation optimiste de la situation. Pyotr Goncharov estime qu’un arrangement est possible entre Russes et Am\u00e9ricains sur la question de la BMDE. Nous ne discutons pas directement ce jugement implicite mais nous le mettons en question par le biais de la m\u00e9thodologie qu’il utilise.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tNous citons plut\u00f4t ce passage, o\u00f9 Goncharov parle de la proposition pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e \u00e0 l’OTAN par le secr\u00e9taire d’Etat adjoint aux affaires europ\u00e9ennes Freid, et r\u00e9percut\u00e9e ensuite<\/a> par l’International Herald Tribune<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abThe proposal voiced by Fried is a win-win initiative. Whether Moscow accepts it or not, Washington has again confirmed that its ABM system in Europe is geared exclusively toward Iran, thus gaining an additional argument in dialogue with Moscow.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThere is one more interesting side to the Iranian problem, which has appeared only recently.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbRussian, American and European experts currently tend to think that the Iranian problem can be solved without going to extremes, such as harsh sanctions, let alone the use of armed force, but by ensuring cooperation between Russia and the United States.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThe two countries should form a common attitude to the problem, with Russia assigned the main role, similar to China’s role in the North Korean quandary.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbIn other words, the U.S. initiative put forth by Fried is a trial balloon aired to test Moscow’s readiness for cooperation with Washington.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbWill the Kremlin accept this proposal, which has not been made official yet?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbRussian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said with regard to the recent consultations between the Russian and American defense and foreign ministers that Washington often links the issue of the European ABM system to the solution of the Iranian nuclear problem. This may mean that the system has indeed been designed to repel the Iranian threat, he said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tCette analyse semblerait avancer l’id\u00e9e que les Russes semblent d\u00e9couvrir chez les Am\u00e9ricains une r\u00e9elle conviction qu’il existe une menace iranienne. Ce constat signifierait alors qu’il n’y a pas, ou qu’il y a moins de duplicit\u00e9 du c\u00f4t\u00e9 US que les Russes ont sans doute cru initialement (duplicit\u00e9 dans le sens o\u00f9 la menace iranienne n’aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 qu’un pr\u00e9texte pour d\u00e9ployer un syst\u00e8me en fait destin\u00e9 \u00e0 contrer les capacit\u00e9s russes). Cette \u00e9volution russe, si elle se confirme, signifierait que les Russes font la part belle dans cette affaire \u00e0 la psychologie, et surtout \u00e0 la psychologie am\u00e9ricaniste. Ils ont raison car c’est bien le cas<\/a>: la psychologie am\u00e9ricaniste est omnipr\u00e9sente comme clef d’explication.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n