Le prix du p\u00e9trole a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 $98 le baril dans les premi\u00e8res ventes en Asie ce matin. Encore un effort… On se trouve vraiment tout proche de la barre tr\u00e8s symbolique, \u00e9crasante de symbole m\u00eame, des $100 le baril. L’International Herald Tribune<\/em> pr\u00e9sente la chose de cette fa\u00e7on, ce matin, en \u00e9valuant tous les effets et les cons\u00e9quences sur la modification des puissances dans le monde du fait de ces rentr\u00e9es massives d’argent d’un c\u00f4t\u00e9 (les producteurs), des d\u00e9penses massives de l’autre (les consommateurs):<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbAs the price of oil surges toward a symbolic milestone of $100 a barrel hitting above $98 in early Asian trading Wednesday it is creating new winners and losers across the globe.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbIn southern China, high oil prices forced Wang Pui, a trucker, to wait in line 90 minutes the other day to fill up, just to be told he could pump only 25 gallons, as China faced spot shortages of gasoline and diesel fuel.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbWhen Vladimir Putin was making Russia’s bid to be host of the 2014 Winter Olympics last July, he reached into the country’s deep pockets, bulging with oil profits, and pledged $12 billion to turn a Black Sea summer resort into a winter-sports paradise. Russia, which was nearly bankrupt a decade ago, won the Games.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThe prospect of triple-digit oil prices has redrawn the economic and political map of the world, challenging some old notions of power. Oil-rich nations are enjoying historic gains and opportunities, while major importers including China and India, home to a third of the world’s population confront rising economic and social costs.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbManaging this new order is fast becoming a central problem of global politics. Countries that need oil are clawing at each other to lock up scarce supplies, and are willing to deal with any government, no matter how unsavory, to do it.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tLa sp\u00e9culation sur le prix du p\u00e9trole est un exercice courant d’une prospective comptable souvent consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme al\u00e9atoire et tr\u00e8s souvent d\u00e9nonc\u00e9e comme facile. N\u00e9nmoins, certaines de ces pr\u00e9visions permettent d’avoir une id\u00e9e de l’\u00e9volution de notre perception de la chose, car la prospective est aussi en partie une affaire de perception. Voici deux exemples de prospectives r\u00e9centes qui, en leurs temps, il y a un ou deux ans, furent consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme extr\u00eamement audacieuses, si pas plus. A la lumi\u00e8re des \u00e9v\u00e9nements actuels, l’appr\u00e9ciation pourrait \u00e9ventuellement changer.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n