15 novembre<\/a>, il dessine la m\u00eame analogie des situations et se d\u00e9sole de la similitude des erreurs am\u00e9ricanistes.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00abThe U.S. response to Iranian instability, endlessly mulled over, was that we had no choice except to support the shah. This was fortified by the belief (or wishful thinking) that the shah would pull himself together and deal with the growing crisis before it was too late. By the time it became inescapably obvious that this was not going to happen, the situation was too far gone for anything to stop it.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThis is a gross simplification, of course, but in retrospect, this was the essence of the problem. We had placed all of our eggs in the shah’s basket; we had no visible alternative. So policy always tended to settle on More of the Same and Fear of Rocking the Boat, combined with much Wringing of Hands.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThose policies were so unsuccessful that they gave rise to conspiracy theories among the Iranian elite that the Carter administration was in fact determined to replace the shah with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Absurd as that appeared to those of us on the inside, it was an all-too-human attempt to square what they regarded as an omnipotent United States with a policy of neglect and error.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbAll of this comes to mind as I watch the situation in Pakistan. I am no expert on that country, but I see the United States locked in much the same kind of policy vise that bedeviled the U.S. in Iran. We have bet the farm on one man Pervez Musharraf and have no fallback position, no alternative strategy in the event that does not work.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbPakistan is far more dangerous than Iran was; it is a nuclear state. If it should be taken over by Sunni radicals, I suppose it would be seen as an imminent threat by nuclear India. I know it would be by Iran, and Iran might well be persuaded to abandon its present slow-motion nuclear development and go for a bomb in the shortest time possible. That would set off other ripples of proliferation and possibly military reaction.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbPakistan is already a training center for international terrorism. That would only increase. Certainly a radical Islamist Pakistan would give al Qaeda and the Taliban an enormous boost in their operations in Afghanistan and beyond. Pakistan would constitute the kind of imminent terrorist\/nuclear threat that we falsely ascribed to Saddam Hussein.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tBien s\u00fbr, l’Histoire ne repasse pas les plats, mais lorsque le cuisinier est aussi m\u00e9diocre elle laisse aller les m\u00eames recettes, par lassitude disons, puisque, d\u00e9cid\u00e9ment, ils n’apprendront jamais rien, les petits hommes pleins de $milliards. Que reste-t-il \u00e0 faire sinon \u00e0 suivre les p\u00e9rip\u00e9ties de l’in\u00e9luctable catastrophe? <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\tMis en ligne le 16 novembre 2007 \u00e0 14H56<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
C’est \u00e0 nouveau, c’est toujours le temps des analogies, comme si l’Histoire recommen\u00e7ait sans que nous en ayons rien appris apr\u00e8s tout. Aux premi\u00e8res lueurs de la crise pakistanaise entr\u00e9e dans son paroxysme, nous nous sommes rappel\u00e9s de l’arc de crise cher \u00e0 Brzezinski dans les ann\u00e9es 1978-1980. Une nouvelle analogie fait flor\u00e8s, de la… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[7200,3228,2631,2773,5915,3379,7220,4460,7219],"class_list":["post-69418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-arc","tag-crise","tag-de","tag-iran","tag-musharraf","tag-pakistan","tag-salhani","tag-shah","tag-sick"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69418","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69418"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69418\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69418"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69418"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69418"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}