Parmi les multiples retomb\u00e9es de la divulgation de la NIE 2007, il y a la r\u00e9flexion a posteriori<\/em> sur la validit\u00e9 de la politique europ\u00e9enne (Allemagne, France, UK) entreprise en octobre 2003, et aussit\u00f4t suivie selon cette m\u00eame NIE de la d\u00e9cision iranienne d’arr\u00eater le programme nucl\u00e9aire militaire. Nous notions la chose hier<\/a> et l’historien Gareth Porter d\u00e9veloppe l’argument aujourd’hui<\/a> sur Antiwar.com<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n «Despite the White House spin that the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) supports its policy of increasing pressure on Iran, the estimate not only directly contradicts the George W. Bush administration’s line on Iranian intentions regarding nuclear weapons, but points to a link between Tehran’s 2003 decision to halt research on weaponization and its decision to negotiate with European foreign ministers on both nuclear and Iranian security concerns.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n »By using unusually strong and precise language in characterizing its pivotal judgment that Iran ended work relating to nuclear weapons four years earlier, the estimate deals a serious blow to the administration’s claim that Iran is determined to acquire nuclear weapons. The key judgment released Monday said, \u00ab\u00a0We assess with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program [and] that the halt lasted at least several years.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em>»<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Apr\u00e8s avoir d\u00e9crit les multiples affrontements entre mod\u00e9r\u00e9s et radicaux \u00e0 T\u00e9h\u00e9ran devant cette approche europ\u00e9enne, et l’inclination iranienne \u00e0 finalement accepter les termes de cette approche, Porter conclut sur ces remarques significatives:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n «The signal event of that period was the agreement in Tehran on Oct. 21, 2003, between the foreign ministers of Iran and the three European states.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n »In the agreement, Iran renounced nuclear weapons, pledged to sign and begin ratification of the Additional Protocol, and \u00ab\u00a0voluntarily to suspend all uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities as defined by the IAEA.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n »The three European foreign ministers pledged, in turn, to \u00ab\u00a0cooperate with Iran to promote security and stability in the region, including the establishment of a zone free from weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East in accordance with the objectives of the United Nations.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n »The Bush administration had opposed the initiative of the European three in offering a political agreement with Iran that would offer security and other concessions as part of a broader deal. The administration wanted to bring Iran quickly before the United Nations Security Council so that it would be subject to international sanctions.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n »Britain, France, and Germany reached an agreement with Iran in mid-November 2004 under which Iran pledged to \u00ab\u00a0provide objective guarantees that Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes\u00a0\u00bb and the EU three promised \u00ab\u00a0firm guarantees on nuclear, technological, and economic cooperation and firm commitments on security issues.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n »The European three then began to backtrack from that agreement under pressure from Washington. But the new evidence that Iran made the decision to drop all weapons-related research at that time appears to confirm the correctness of the original European negotiating approach.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n »Paul Pillar, the former national intelligence officer for the Middle East who managed the 2005 NIE on the Iranian nuclear program and other NIEs on Iran, told IPS he considers it \u00ab\u00a0plausible\u00a0\u00bb that the decision to halt weapons-related work was part of a broader change in strategy that included a decision to enter into negotiations that promised security benefits in return for demonstrating restraint on enrichment.<\/em>»<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Ainsi peut-on mieux compl\u00e9ter quelques remarques d\u00e9j\u00e0 esquiss\u00e9es, et en ajouter d’autres:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n