{"id":69473,"date":"2007-12-05T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2007-12-05T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2007\/12\/05\/messieurs-les-french-declinistes-take-a-look-a-votre-modele-anglais\/"},"modified":"2007-12-05T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2007-12-05T00:00:00","slug":"messieurs-les-french-declinistes-take-a-look-a-votre-modele-anglais","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2007\/12\/05\/messieurs-les-french-declinistes-take-a-look-a-votre-modele-anglais\/","title":{"rendered":"Messieurs les French<\/em> d\u00e9clinistes, take a look<\/em> \u00e0 votre mod\u00e8le anglais"},"content":{"rendered":"

On les a entendus, les d\u00e9clinistes fran\u00e7ais, de 2006 \u00e0 l’\u00e9lection de mai 2007, nous parler du mod\u00e8le anglais, panac\u00e9e europ\u00e9enne et globalis\u00e9e des lendemains \u00e9conomiques qui chantent avec une voix de stentor et sur un air de Blair. Sarko \u00e9tait attendu par eux comme le Blair fran\u00e7ais, c’est-\u00e0-dire comme le Messie incontestable. Peut-\u00eatre pourraient-ils, aujourd’hui, jeter un il \u00e0 leur r\u00e9f\u00e9rence favorite, comme \u00e7a, pour voir.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tDe plus en plus copie conforme des USA, selon les vux de Tony Blair, le Royaume-Uni est le plus rapide \u00e0 s’enfoncer dans la crise \u00e9conomique \u00e0 l’instar de ces m\u00eames USA. On imite comme on peut et on reste parmi les premiers de la classe.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tTr\u00e8s fi\u00e9rot, le copain Blair avait m\u00eame institu\u00e9 en 2004 la m\u00eame r\u00e9f\u00e9rence que les Am\u00e9ricains pour mesurer les progr\u00e8s incontestables de son permanent miracle \u00e9conomique: un indice de confiance des consommateurs. Pas rancunier pour un sou, l’indice enregistre pour novembre la chute-record de sa courte histoire, rapport\u00e9e par The Independent<\/em> aujourd’hui<\/a>: \u00abA host of new figures suggested a bleak beginning to 2008 for the British economy yesterday. Just 24 hours after a trio of high-street firms issued profit warnings, the Nationwide Building Society’s consumer confidence index slipped 12 points from 98 to 86, its largest monthly fall since it began in May 2004. Attitudes towards spending in the next six months slumped the most.<\/em>\u00bb Le m\u00eame Independent<\/em> publie \u00e9galement aujourd’hui<\/a> un article d\u00e9vastateur sur les perspectives \u00e9conomiques du pays: \u00abIs Britain’s economy heading for the perfect storm?<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tEntame du texte de Sean O’Grady, sp\u00e9cialiste \u00e9conomique du quotidien:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abThe storm clouds are gathering over the jobs market; the climate on the high street is growing distinctly chilly; a typhoon of bad debt is buffeting the banks. Could a perfect storm be about to hit the British economy?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe signs couldn’t be much bleaker. The switchback in sentiment since the credit crisis began in the summer has been violent. The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index recorded its largest drop yesterday, and joins the GfK\/NOP survey earlier this week in suggesting that a wave of pessimism not seen for years is washing over the economy.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbHouse prices have begun to fall, albeit slightly; commercial property is seemingly on the brink of collapse on a par with that seen in the early 1990s. The buy-to-let market is vulnerable. The Bank of England has, unprecedentedly, voiced concerns about the grim prospects for real estate. And the Financial Services Authority has warned of the very real prospect of the global credit crunch getting much worse. It is that bad.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbShopkeepers are looking forward to a black Christmas. Sir Philip Green, the boss of Top Shop and BHS, said last night on Sky TV that business is very, very tough. The British Retail Consortium says that sales grew only marginally in November, having slowed markedly in October. JD Sports, ScS furniture and Greene King are the latest household names warning of setbacks. About 4.4 million credit-card customers still haven’t cleared debts they ran up last Christmas, according to MoneyExpert.com.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t Et les trois avant-derniers paragraphes, qui nous d\u00e9crivent les perspectives que O’Grady voit pour son pays, et pour le reste d’une certaine fa\u00e7on.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abOn this side of the Atlantic we feel the chill because our banks are exposed to sub-prime and because the US economy is the world’s biggest. If it slows, it drags us down with it. And the mood of economic gloom Northern Rock, headlines on house-price crashes, higher prices for fuel at forecourts and food at checkouts is reinforcing itself. Confidence is the magic ingredient in any economy; it is evaporating fast. There’s no knowing how bad it could get.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe most pernicious aspect of this downturn is how it could turn not so much into a recession, but into slowflation slow growth plus inflation. A depressed economy can co-exist with high inflation, as the world found in the 1970s. Low demand and high input costs (such as oil at $100 [\u00a348] a barrel; wheat prices at record highs) squeeze profits and employment and cut the real value of wages. It also makes it tougher for the Bank of England to allow interest rates to drift lower.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbBut the really bad weather would arrive if the Chinese economy stumbled. Next year, more than half the world’s growth will derive from China, India and other emerging economies. Were they to falter say because the Shanghai stock market bubble burst the world would almost certainly lurch into recession.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tLe Royaume-Uni, l’homme malade de l’Europe alors qu’on en faisait le mod\u00e8le de l’Europe, quelle d\u00e9rision !, il y a \u00e0 peine six mois? Ce n’est pourtant pas que cela, m\u00eame si c’est \u00e9videmment aussi cela. Le perfect storm<\/em> qui s’annonce nous concerne tous, comme toutes les crises aujourd’hui, qui grandissent, se gonflent, annoncent la dislocation d’un syst\u00e8me entier. Il est normal que la crise arrive par ceux-l\u00e0 m\u00eame qui l’ont nourrie par leur comportement, leur th\u00e9ories et leurs actes. Quant \u00e0 l’intelligence fran\u00e7aise, son habilet\u00e9 \u00e0 identifier les mod\u00e8les qui vont bien ne cessera jamais de nous \u00e9mouvoir.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tMis en ligne le 5 d\u00e9cembre 2007 \u00e0 16H32<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On les a entendus, les d\u00e9clinistes fran\u00e7ais, de 2006 \u00e0 l’\u00e9lection de mai 2007, nous parler du mod\u00e8le anglais, panac\u00e9e europ\u00e9enne et globalis\u00e9e des lendemains \u00e9conomiques qui chantent avec une voix de stentor et sur un air de Blair. Sarko \u00e9tait attendu par eux comme le Blair fran\u00e7ais, c’est-\u00e0-dire comme le Messie incontestable. Peut-\u00eatre pourraient-ils,… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5572,705,3228,5888,2687,5427,4137],"class_list":["post-69473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-anglais","tag-blair","tag-crise","tag-declinistes","tag-france","tag-perfect","tag-storm"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69473\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}