Surprise, surprise? Sans doute pas pour Wall Street. Deux analystes proches de Wall Street, prenant de grands risques intellectuels, pr\u00e9disent une victoire de Boeing dans la comp\u00e9tition<\/a> pour un futur ravitailleur en vol de l’USAF. (L’un de ces deux sp\u00e9cialistes est notre ami Richard Aboulafia, \u00e9galement sp\u00e9cialiste de la sup\u00e9riorit\u00e9 du JSF<\/a>.) La d\u00e9cision est annonc\u00e9e pour f\u00e9vrier 2008.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tLe Seattle-Post Intelligencer<\/em> du 16 d\u00e9cembre<\/a> consacre un article \u00e0 cette situation, sign\u00e9 par le sp\u00e9cialiste financier du groupe Hearst, Eric Rosenberg.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abPaul Nisbet and Richard Aboulafia, two respected industry experts, believe that Chicago-based Boeing will win when the Air Force awards the contract next year.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbNeither Nisbet nor Aboulafia is a consultant for either tanker bidder.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t()<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbNisbet, an analyst with JSA Research of Newport, R.I., a financial analysis company specializing in the aerospace industry, said one reason he believes Boeing will get the contract is the company’s decades-long experience in building and maintaining Air Force tankers. Boeing built the current fleet of aging KC-135 tankers that the KC-X would replace.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbBoeing has been providing tanker jets (to the Air Force) for 40 years. Airbus has not, Nisbet said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbNisbet also contends that, despite the Druyun-Boeing scandal, Air Force officials are predisposed to give the business to Boeing for its planned tanker, the KC-767.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThe Boeing plane is what they wanted in the first place, Nisbet said, referring to the 2003 contract award.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t()<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbAboulafia, an aerospace analyst with the Teal Group, a financial analysis firm in Fairfax, Va., rated Boeing’s chances of winning at 55 percent and EADS’ chances at 15 percent. He held out a 30 percent chance that the Air Force or Congress would direct that the project be split between the two bidders.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbAboulafia agreed with Nisbet that Congress would be more inclined to pay for a Boeing tanker. The Boeing tanker \u00a0\u00bbis more fundable\u00a0\u00bb from a congressional perspective because more of the money would be spent in the U.S., he said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbAnother factor in Boeing’s favor, Aboulafia said, is that the KC-30 is substantially larger than the Boeing KC-767 and, thus, could have higher operating costs.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tLes Europ\u00e9ens d’EADS, surtout les Allemands du groupe, jugent (ou jugeaient) qu’Airbus a (avait) une forte chance de p\u00e9n\u00e9trer le march\u00e9 du Pentagone gr\u00e2ce au programme de ravitailleur en vol. L’\u00e9volution de la situation ne peut donc que surprendre les Europ\u00e9ens. Par contre<\/a>, elle ne surprend ni les sp\u00e9cialistes, ni les connaisseurs, ni les r\u00e9alistes. Elle ne fait que perp\u00e9tuer une tradition US pour ce qui concerne la p\u00e9n\u00e9tration de son march\u00e9 de la d\u00e9fense.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tDe plus, il semblerait que Boeing ait encore un avantage, avec une conformation suppl\u00e9mentaire \u00e0 la tradition US. Son KC-767 a beaucoup d’ennuis, notamment des retards de livraison pour les Japonais et les Italiens qui ont command\u00e9 ce ravitailleur en vol. Pas de surprise de ce c\u00f4t\u00e9-l\u00e0 non plus, et tradition toujours respect\u00e9e pour les Italiens qui, en bons Europ\u00e9ens, ont choisi Boeing plut\u00f4t qu’Airbus en m\u00eame temps qu’ils exp\u00e9rimentent la douceur transatlantique des avatars du JSF<\/a>. Tout est donc conforme \u00e0 la tradition dans le meilleur des mondes traditionnels.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tTout de m\u00eame, quelques d\u00e9tails int\u00e9ressants, du m\u00eame Aboulafia:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abWhile he believes Boeing is likely to win the tanker deal, Aboulafia pointed to a factor in favor of EADS: Boeing hasn’t been able to deliver the KC-767 tanker under military contracts that company already has with Italy and Japan.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThe company was supposed to begin delivery of tankers to Japan a year ago and to Italy two years ago. The delay raises the possibility that an Air Force version also could be delayed, if Boeing got the contract.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbBoeing has had a few big stumbles on its KC-767 for Japan and Italy, Aboulafia said, referring to aerodynamic problems that have limited the aircraft’s speed.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbMark McGraw, a Boeing vice president, told reporters last week that the company plans to begin KC-767 deliveries to Japan next month and to Italy later in the year. Obviously, we’ve been disappointed with our performance on the international tankers, McGraw said.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \tMis en ligne le 19 d\u00e9cembre 2007 \u00e0 05H45<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Surprise, surprise? Sans doute pas pour Wall Street. Deux analystes proches de Wall Street, prenant de grands risques intellectuels, pr\u00e9disent une victoire de Boeing dans la comp\u00e9tition pour un futur ravitailleur en vol de l’USAF. (L’un de ces deux sp\u00e9cialistes est notre ami Richard Aboulafia, \u00e9galement sp\u00e9cialiste de la sup\u00e9riorit\u00e9 du JSF.) La d\u00e9cision est… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4605,3191,3192,4215,7310,41],"class_list":["post-69517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-aboulafia","tag-airbus","tag-boeing","tag-eads","tag-tanker","tag-usaf"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69517"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69517\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}