On ne pourra pas reprocher au Financial Times<\/em> de sacrifier au r\u00f4le de l’optimisme forc\u00e9 qui caract\u00e9rise nombre de m\u00e9dias officiels. Au contraire, le quotidien quasi-porte-parole du monde occidental de la finance semble avoir choisi la voie et la voix de Cassandre pour commenter l’\u00e9volution \u00e9conomique. Un long article de ce jour<\/a> analyse les perspectives de r\u00e9cession aux USA, en ne dissimulant en aucune fa\u00e7on, et certainement sans minimiser ces opinions, que pour certains l’Am\u00e9rique est \t\u00abAmerica has entered 2008 in greater danger of recession than at any stage since the collapse of the internet bubble in 2000-01, as the world’s largest economy struggles to maintain growth in the face of the credit squeeze, a housing slide and high oil prices.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbFourth-quarter growth for 2007 looks likely to come in at 1 per cent or less on an annual basis, while the current three months are unlikely to be much better and could even be worse. The only question is whether the economy will struggle through this sickly period and gradually regain strength over the course of the year or succumb to its ailments and, with growth turning negative, fall into recession.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbAccording to the latest NBC News\/Wall Street Journal poll, more than two-thirds of Americans believe the US is either in recession now or will be in 2008. Some of the country’s most famous economists including Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, as well as Lawrence Summers, former Treasury secretary, and Martin Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research put the odds of recession at close to 50-50.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThis is striking, because economists say it is almost impossible to forecast recessions and, in the last quarter of a century, there have been only two brief and shallow periods of negative US growth. We have had an awful lot of bad news, says Mr Feldstein. It is not a sure thing we are going to have a recession, but nor do I have great confidence that we are going to escape.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbBill Gross, chief executive of Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund manager, goes as far as to say he like many ordinary Americans thinks a recession has already started, in December.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tCes analyses pessimistes du FT sont particuli\u00e8rement r\u00e9v\u00e9latrices d’un \u00e9tat d’esprit d’une partie d\u00e9sormais non n\u00e9gligeable et grandissante des commentateurs au sein du syst\u00e8me. Il y a effectivement dans cet \u00e9tat d’esprit une certaine volont\u00e9 et une certaine tendance \u00e0 consid\u00e9rer la situation \u00e9conomique d’un point de vue pessimiste, du moins en r\u00e9f\u00e9rence aux normes habituelles \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard au sein du syst\u00e8me. Il s’agit aussi bien d’une position rationnelle, appuy\u00e9e sur une certaine appr\u00e9ciation rigoriste et un m\u00e9contentement devant la faiblesse des r\u00e9actions officielles devant le danger. On peut \u00e9galement avancer l’hypoth\u00e8se, qu’on a d\u00e9j\u00e0<\/a> \u00e9voqu\u00e9e, d’une certaine fascination de la crise qui commence \u00e0 toucher certains au sein du syst\u00e8me.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tLes tensions \u00e9conomiques sont certes tr\u00e8s grandes et importantes. Les tensions psychologique (et on conna\u00eet l’importance de la psychologie dans ces circonstances) ne le sont pas moins, et elles le deviennent m\u00eame plus dans une situation d’incertitude o\u00f9 le jugement d’une situation d\u00e9pend d’abord de l’\u00e9valuation qu’on en fait plus que de chiffres strict. Ces tensions psychologiques concernent essentiellement le contraste entre l’optimisme auquel le syst\u00e8me tend \u00e0 contraindre nombre de jugements et les r\u00e9alit\u00e9s qui exercent de plus en plus leurs pressions. La r\u00e9action psychologique, devant ce qui s’av\u00e8re \u00eatre un blocage antagoniste (refus de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 contre r\u00e9alit\u00e9) d\u00e9clenche chez certains une r\u00e9action psychologique forte, presque de r\u00e9volte. Le FT semble parfois \u00eatre dans cette cat\u00e9gorie, avec une volont\u00e9 de plus en plus affirm\u00e9e de sonner l’alarme. Sa r\u00e9action psychologique devient de plus en plus syst\u00e9matique et se transforme en jugement extr\u00eamement pessimiste, d’ailleurs avec de fortes chances que cette r\u00e9action ne fasse finalement que rendre compte de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9. Ainsi peut-on mesurer, de ce c\u00f4t\u00e9 \u00e9galement de la crise financi\u00e8re et \u00e9conomique, la force du trouble et du d\u00e9sarroi qui touchent le syst\u00e8me. Le p\u00e9trole qui franchit le seuil psychologiquement fondamental des $100<\/a> est l\u00e0 pour alimenter, si l’on ose dire, cette tendance.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \tMis en ligne le 7 janvier 2008 \u00e0 07H42<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" On ne pourra pas reprocher au Financial Times de sacrifier au r\u00f4le de l’optimisme forc\u00e9 qui caract\u00e9rise nombre de m\u00e9dias officiels. Au contraire, le quotidien quasi-porte-parole du monde occidental de la finance semble avoir choisi la voie et la voix de Cassandre pour commenter l’\u00e9volution \u00e9conomique. Un long article de ce jour analyse les perspectives… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3228,2851,6375,3725,2852,2804],"class_list":["post-69565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-crise","tag-financial","tag-pessimisme","tag-recession","tag-times","tag-usa"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69565","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69565"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69565\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69565"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69565"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69565"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}