Nous allons \u00e0 nouveau nous r\u00e9f\u00e9rer \u00e0 un commentaire de Steve Clemons, auquel nous avons d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait \u00e9cho hier<\/a> pour \u00e9largir certains enseignements de la primaire de l’Iowa qui permettent de mieux comprendre ce que sera la campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle. Dans son commentaire plus copieux du 4 janvier<\/a>, Clemons met quelques faits fondamentaux en \u00e9vidence. Le principal de ces faits est, \u00e0 notre sens, comme nous le notions hier<\/a>, la disparition de l’argument de la guerre contre la terreur, ce que Clemons identifie justement comme l’argument de la peur. D’une fa\u00e7on \u00e9galement tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressante, il appuie de fa\u00e7on concr\u00e8te ce constat sur les r\u00e9sultats respectifs de Ron Paul et de Rudy Guliani, ce qui est accorder effectivement, ils sont si rares \u00e0 le faire, l’importance qui sied au r\u00e9sultat du candidat Paul. Pour Clemons, seuls ces deux candidats ont fait campagne sur cette question de la peur et de la politique ext\u00e9rieure de la guerre contre la terreur, et leurs r\u00e9sultats mesurent le sentiment du public. Le fait que Clemons n’appr\u00e9cie pas les positions de politique int\u00e9rieure de Ron Paul rend d’autant plus respectable le jugement qu’il porte sur son r\u00e9sultat en Iowa et sur la dynamique que Ron Paul repr\u00e9sente.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abThe most resounding defeat for fear politics has nothing to do with the Democratic race. Fear-based candidate Rudy Giuliani took sixth in Iowa with 3% of the vote. He and Ron Paul are the two candidates who have run most on foreign policy, and Paul took roughly three times as many votes as Giuliani. Rudy gave up on Iowa a while ago, but let’s remember he was leading in Iowa polls at the beginning of the year and was competitive until just a few months ago. I am no fan of Ron Paul’s anti-international law and anti-international institution foreign policy but I am grateful for the challenge that his candidacy presents to the bomb first, ask questions later crowd that has dominated the GOP in recent years. Problematic as Paul’s worldview is, the fact that Iowa Republicans prefer it to Giuliani’s heavy footprint unilateralism is a very, very good thing.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tSur les r\u00e9sultats des d\u00e9mocrates, Clemons confirme son jugement, en y ajoutant un \u00e9l\u00e9ment important. La faiblesse de Clinton est que son \u00e9quipe de campagne semble se montrer apr\u00e8s le r\u00e9sultat de l’Iowa assez am\u00e8re et d\u00e9courag\u00e9e, voire divis\u00e9e, alors que c’est le moment pour elle, au contraire, de se montrer tr\u00e8s offensive avec une \u00e9quipe soud\u00e9e. Par contraste, le camp Obama a r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 susciter enthousiasme et allant, ou \u00e0 capter \u00e0 son cr\u00e9dit l’enthousiasme \u00e0 aller voter et \u00e0 r\u00e9clamer un changement des \u00e9lecteurs. Cela constitue un avantage tr\u00e8s important. Ce faisant, Obama rencontre le st\u00e9r\u00e9otype signal\u00e9 aujourd’hui<\/a> dans une autre note sur ce site.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abAs many have suggested, Obama’s win in Iowa does not mean the race is over. Far from it. In fact, even if Obama continues to win in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Clinton should not be counted out she has the resources and base of support to continue through the big states regardless of what happens. Edwards, too, has opportunity to rebound though it seems unclear exactly how or where that would happen. What should worry Clinton is the palpable differential in enthusiasm between her camp and Obama’s, as demonstrated by the feel of their respective post-caucus speeches. I expect that recordings of the Clinton speech, featuring old, disappointed-looking faces in the background, will show up on blogs and news a few more times before next week.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \tMis en ligne le 5 janvier 2008 \u00e0 07H25<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Nous allons \u00e0 nouveau nous r\u00e9f\u00e9rer \u00e0 un commentaire de Steve Clemons, auquel nous avons d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait \u00e9cho hier pour \u00e9largir certains enseignements de la primaire de l’Iowa qui permettent de mieux comprendre ce que sera la campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle. Dans son commentaire plus copieux du 4 janvier, Clemons met quelques faits fondamentaux en \u00e9vidence. Le… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[6179,934,6711,7340,6208,3140,5030],"class_list":["post-69575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-clemons","tag-clinton","tag-giuliani","tag-iowa","tag-obama","tag-paul","tag-peur"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69575","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69575"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69575\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69575"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69575"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}