{"id":69688,"date":"2008-02-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2008-02-18T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2008\/02\/18\/aux-usa-la-plus-grave-des-crises-la-crise-de-confiance\/"},"modified":"2008-02-18T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2008-02-18T00:00:00","slug":"aux-usa-la-plus-grave-des-crises-la-crise-de-confiance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2008\/02\/18\/aux-usa-la-plus-grave-des-crises-la-crise-de-confiance\/","title":{"rendered":"Aux USA, la plus grave des crises: la crise de confiance"},"content":{"rendered":"

Deux indices successifs concernant le sentiment des Am\u00e9ricains vis-\u00e0-vis de la situation \u00e9conomique montrent une aggravation du sentiment, une inqui\u00e9tude qui ne cesse de cro\u00eetre. La chute de la confiance commence \u00e0 ressembler \u00e0 un effondrement.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t Le 14 f\u00e9vrier<\/a>, le PEW Center Research for the People & the Press publiait une \u00e9tude statistique sur l’\u00e9volution du sentiment de la population concernant l’\u00e9conomie. Les chiffres extr\u00eames de l’\u00e9tude sont significatifs, avec les optimistes qui passent de 26% \u00e0 17% et les plus pessimistes de 28% \u00e0 45%.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abPublic views of the U.S. economy, already quite negative, have plummeted since January. Just 17% currently rate the nation’s economy as excellent or good, down from 26% last month. The percentage of Americans rating the economy as poor has increased even more dramatically, from 28% to 45% in one month.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t Le Financial Times<\/em> du 16 f\u00e9vrier<\/a> rapporte les r\u00e9sultats d’une statistique mensuelle, l’index des consommateurs de Reuters\/universit\u00e9 du Michigan. La situation de la confiance est en tr\u00e8s s\u00e9v\u00e8re aggravation. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abUS consumer confidence dropped to a 16-year low this month, a level that has historically signalled recession.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe Reuters\/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell 11 per cent for early February to 69.6, compared with the previous month – the lowest level since February 1992.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbPast declines of this magnitude have always been associated with subsequent recessions, said Richard Curtin, the director of the survey.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbHouseholds of all incomes and age groups appear to have been hit, with half of consumers anticipating falling real incomes and higher unemployment this year.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe report indicates an accelerating downturn, said Brian Bethune, an economist at Global Insight. It doesn’t look like a gradual letting the air out of the balloon right now.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbEighty-six per cent of consumers said they believed the US was in recession, the highest proportion since 1982, when the US was in the middle of its worst postwar economic slowdown.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbYear-ahead prospects for the national economy were… <\/em> [at] a level comparable to the worst level in the recessions of the early 1990s and 1980s, said Mr Curtin.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tComme on voit, comme dans le cas de Krugman<\/a>, c’est \u00e0 nouveau le facteur psychologique qui est en cause. La crise financi\u00e8re qui \u00e9volue vers une crise \u00e9conomique prend le chemin de traverse habituel et se transforme dans la plus grave crise possible pour les USA: la crise de confiance. Pour cette \u00e9conomie bas\u00e9e sur la consommation, c’est la pire des perspectives possibles et la voie classique vers la crise g\u00e9n\u00e9rale.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tLes conditions politiques sont particuli\u00e8rement favorables \u00e0 cette aggravation. La position des autorit\u00e9s politiques et financi\u00e8res appara\u00eet de plus en plus contest\u00e9e. L’article du Financial Times<\/em> cite cet avis de Brian Bethune, l’\u00e9conomiste de Global Insight : \u00abOn the financial market side there is a steady drumbeat of problems. There is a really serious problem there that the Fed has grotesquely underestimated.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tLa campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle est elle-m\u00eame marqu\u00e9e par tous les extr\u00eames possibles, au sortir d’une pr\u00e9sidence catastrophique et extraordinairement aventureuse qui a durement secou\u00e9 la psychologie am\u00e9ricaniste et \u00e0 radicalement r\u00e9duit le statut d’influence des USA dans le monde. Si les facteurs qu’on envisage ici sont \u00e9conomique, la substance de la crise, exprim\u00e9e par la psychologie, est g\u00e9n\u00e9rale et affecte l’enti\u00e8ret\u00e9 d’un syst\u00e8me. La r\u00e9f\u00e9rence de la situation US, pour s’en tenir \u00e0 la pression psychologique<\/strong> des \u00e9v\u00e9nements, est plus que jamais la Grande D\u00e9pression (encore plus que le krach<\/em> d’octobre 1929), et la Grande D\u00e9pression dans sa p\u00e9riode la plus aigu\u00eb (1932-33).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tMis en ligne le 18 f\u00e9vrier 2008 \u00e0 06H13<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Deux indices successifs concernant le sentiment des Am\u00e9ricains vis-\u00e0-vis de la situation \u00e9conomique montrent une aggravation du sentiment, une inqui\u00e9tude qui ne cesse de cro\u00eetre. La chute de la confiance commence \u00e0 ressembler \u00e0 un effondrement. Le 14 f\u00e9vrier, le PEW Center Research for the People & the Press publiait une \u00e9tude statistique sur l’\u00e9volution… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3621,3228,3083,3795,2891,3099],"class_list":["post-69688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-confiance","tag-crise","tag-depression","tag-economie","tag-grande","tag-psychologie"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69688"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69688\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}