18 f\u00e9vrier<\/a>. En voici quelques extraits.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00abEven if Clinton succeeds in winning the three large-state primaries that remainOhio and Texas on March 4, and Pennsylvania on April 22Obama is considered likely to emerge with a lead of perhaps 100 delegates.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThis would leave the final decision in the hands of so-called superdelegates, the 795 people who are automatic delegates thanks to their holding current or past elective office, or membership in the Democratic National Committee. About 400 of these delegates have publicly committed themselves to Obama or Clinton, a majority of them for Clinton.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThe remaining delegatesas well as any of those committed who decide to change their mindscould have decisive weight in the contest. Most of them are members of the DNC or the chairmen of state Democratic parties, part of the Democratic Party apparatus concerned primarily about the assistance that the presidential candidate could provide in winning local, state and congressional offices.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t(…)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\t\u00bbThe most likely scenario for a Clinton victory depends on achieving a sufficiently large majority among the superdelegates to overturn Obama’s margin among the pledged delegates. This edge would then allow Clinton’s forces to control the credentials committee at the Democratic National Convention in August and approve the seating of delegates from two states, Michigan and Florida, which were stripped of their votes for violating national Democratic Party rules by moving their primaries up to January.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t(…)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\t\u00bb Much of the Democratic Party establishment fears that a Clinton victory through maneuvers with superdelegates and rules changes on Michigan and Florida would create explosive conditions on the floor of the national convention and discredit the entire process. There has been open discussion of the precedent of the 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago, where police violence against antiwar demonstrators outside the convention and crass antidemocratic maneuvers inside produced a political debacle and contributed to the defeat of the eventual nominee, Hubert Humphrey.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbA key group of superdelegates is being organized to try to forestall such an eventuality. According to press reports over the weekend, former vice president Al Gore, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and three former candidates in the current contest, Senator Joseph Biden, Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico and former senator John Edwards, have held talks on the danger of allowing the nomination fight to continue into August.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tLe souvenir de Chicago-1968 (la convention du parti d\u00e9mocrate de cette ann\u00e9e \u00e9lectorale) est particuli\u00e8rement effrayant. La convention d\u00e9mocrate de Chicago fut l’occasion d’un des sommets de l’affrontement qui opposa les groupes contestataires de l’\u00e9poque et les forces de l’ordre dans les ann\u00e9s 1960. Le souvenir rappelle une p\u00e9riode particuli\u00e8rement instable, r\u00e9volutionnaire, avec ces affrontements sanglants entre des manifestants contestataires et la police de Chicago en marge de la convention qui prirent une allure d’\u00e9meutes et au cours desquels les forces de l’ordre se conduisirent d’une fa\u00e7on particuli\u00e8rement brutale. Comme on peut le noter, il s’agit, avec le cas \u00e9voqu\u00e9, d’une occurrence o\u00f9 se produirait cet \u00e9v\u00e9nement rarissime de la rencontre entre le public (les militants de base, des contstataires) et la direction du parti qui est le coeur de la bureaucratie du syst\u00e8me. On voit \u00e9galement que les tendances identifi\u00e9es durant les \u00e9lections placent Hillary Clinton du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l’establishment<\/em> et Obama du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la contestation, ce qui correspond bien \u00e0 la perception g\u00e9n\u00e9rale et renforce ainsi les tendances antagonistes en cours.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tLa n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 d’une d\u00e9signation bureaucratique \u00e0 la convention d\u00e9mocrate introduirait un formidable facteur de d\u00e9stabilisation dans le processus en cours, d\u00e9j\u00e0 largement contest\u00e9.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\tMis en ligne le 20 f\u00e9vrier 2008 \u00e0 05H36<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Pour l’heure et en fonction des sondages existants, il semble que l’issue probable des primaires d\u00e9mocrates ne d\u00e9signera pas le candidat d\u00e9mocrate d’une fa\u00e7on directe. Les porte-paroles de Clinton et d’Obama reconnaissent pour l’instant que cette issue est probable. Obama a pris la t\u00eate du nombre de d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s avec 1.280 contre 1.212, selon un d\u00e9compte… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4952,934,7423,6125,7424,3278,6208],"class_list":["post-69694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-chicago","tag-clinton","tag-convention","tag-democrate","tag-floride","tag-hillary","tag-obama"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69694"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69694\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}