Les mots et les jugements par les mots sur la politique aujourd’hui ont comme principale caract\u00e9ristique l’ambigu\u00eft\u00e9, sinon la dissimulation. Il n’y a pas de cas plus d\u00e9monstratif de la chose que la politique US telle qu’on l’appr\u00e9cie d’Europe, entre les techniques de dissimulation US et les penchants d’auto-dissimulation des Europ\u00e9ens. Ainsi l’arriv\u00e9e d’un prochain pr\u00e9sident US, surtout s’il s’agit d’Obama, est unanimement per\u00e7ue en Europe comme un changement radical de politique ext\u00e9rieur, impliquant que l’accent sera n\u00e9anmoins gard\u00e9 pour favoriser la politique ext\u00e9rieure. Sur le site WashingtonNote.com<\/em> le 13 juin<\/a>, Ben Katcher, analyste au programme d’analyse strat\u00e9gique de la situation am\u00e9ricaine de la New America Foundation, donne une appr\u00e9ciation de la perspective US \u00e0 partir de 2009 selon une autre approche.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abThe political climate favors focusing on domestic issues. This is due to both the current president’s excessive emphasis on foreign policy and the inevitable focus on the economy that accompanies a recession. Indeed, a recent poll indicates that a full two-thirds of Americans think that the economy is an extremely important issue, while fewer than one half of Americans attach extreme importance to Iraq.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThat said, the next president will inherit two hot wars, an enormously complex and important change in the Asian balance of power, and an international community starved for proactive, positive American engagement. But with the consequences of a diminished American primacy more distant and less palpable to most Americans, pocketbook issues will likely prevail in guiding the agenda after the election.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tA partir de cette observation g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, Katcher observe que la tendance politique dans les derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es pour les nouvelles pr\u00e9sidences a \u00e9t\u00e9 un repli sur les affaires int\u00e9rieures, dans tous les cas dans les premi\u00e8res ann\u00e9es de pr\u00e9sidence (Clinton), comme tendance naturelle apr\u00e8s une p\u00e9riode d’intense activit\u00e9 en politique ext\u00e9rieure. La chose devrait \u00e9galement concerner la candidature Obama, malgr\u00e9 ses conceptions de d\u00e9part et les circonstances de sa nomination.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abMatt Yglesias has suggested, Obama won the nomination in large part due to his opposition to the Iraq war and his call for diplomatic engagement with dictators, which allowed him to differentiate himself from Hilary Clinton. The issue most likely to compel Obama to focus on foreign policy is Iran whether it is an escalation of hostilities, a decision to pursue a more robust diplomatic course, or the crossing of a nuclear red line.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbNevertheless, the criteria laid out above suggest that after an election, a President Obama would likely to tack back to domestic issues where he is stronger politically and where his background as a community organizer suggests that his passion lies.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tIl est vrai que les pr\u00e9sidents d\u00e9mocrates ont souvent \u00e9t\u00e9 ceux qui ont entam\u00e9 les guerres (que des r\u00e9publicains terminaient). Mais cette tendance venait en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de circonstances propres \u00e0 leurs pr\u00e9sidences, apr\u00e8s des d\u00e9buts toujours tourn\u00e9s vers l’int\u00e9rieur. Ce fut le cas de Franklin Delano Roosevelt, de Truman avec la Cor\u00e9e, de Clinton. M\u00eame le cas de Kennedy-Johnson (responsabilit\u00e9 partag\u00e9e) peut \u00eatre envisag\u00e9 dans ce sens, pour le Vietnam, alors que les questions int\u00e9rieures avaient pris le dessus dans la premi\u00e8re partie de la d\u00e9cennie des ann\u00e9es 1960. Katcher rappelle \u00e9galement que GW Bush lui-m\u00eame avait commenc\u00e9 sa pr\u00e9sidence en proposant une politique ext\u00e9rieure contenue. L’appr\u00e9ciation implicite derri\u00e8re l’analyse de Katcher est que Obama chercherait \u00e0 mettre un terme \u00e0 la guerre contre la terreur, comme \u00e9v\u00e9nement fondamental de la politique ext\u00e9rieure US, pour se consacrer au domaine int\u00e9rieur. Il faut observer que cette analyse tend \u00e0 conforter celle de Gerard Baker, que nous commentions le 14 juin<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tUn lecteur commentant le texte de Katcher offre ces pr\u00e9cisions qui ne sont pas inint\u00e9ressantes, partant du constat que les deux candidats devront de toute urgence s’attaquer \u00e0 la situation financi\u00e8re du gouvernement, c’est-\u00e0-dire indirectement \u00e0 la politique ext\u00e9rieure interventionniste et tr\u00e8s co\u00fbteuse, pour pouvoir obtenir des r\u00e9sultats int\u00e9rieurs (ce qui nous ram\u00e8ne \u00e0 la crise du Pentagone<\/a>):<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abThe cure to the financial hemorrhaging starts with putting a stop to out of control defense spending. Since 2001 there has been a $400 Billion increase in spending on Defense,’ Homeland Security, and emergency’ appropriations for GWOT. By comparison, all other discretionary expenses have risen only about $66 Billion since 2001, which is below the rate of inflation. Eliminating the increase in Security Spending’ would still leave America with the world’s biggest military by far. The benefits would be enormous: a balanced budget and elimination of the government’s need to borrow from China to finance operations. The only way to reduce security spending is to scale back the global commitments, including the two wars.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbSo, somewhat circuitously, the next President must first get foreign policy right as the unavoidable prerequisite to getting the American economy right. McCain is truly clueless. Obama is making the right noises, but I’m not sure that he fully realizes the enormous battle that will have to be waged to scale back America’s security commitments so as to begin to adress America’s economic problems.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \tMis en ligne le 16 juin 2008 \u00e0 09H37<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Les mots et les jugements par les mots sur la politique aujourd’hui ont comme principale caract\u00e9ristique l’ambigu\u00eft\u00e9, sinon la dissimulation. Il n’y a pas de cas plus d\u00e9monstratif de la chose que la politique US telle qu’on l’appr\u00e9cie d’Europe, entre les techniques de dissimulation US et les penchants d’auto-dissimulation des Europ\u00e9ens. Ainsi l’arriv\u00e9e d’un prochain… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[6179,7635,7634,6208],"class_list":["post-69969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-clemons","tag-interieur","tag-katcher","tag-obama"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69969\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}