19 juin<\/a>, de Nikita Petrov, fait notamment \u00e9tat d’une table ronde tenue \u00e0 Moscou sous les auspices du Carnegie Center, qui a vu de nombreux experts US faire des pr\u00e9visions effectivement pessimistes sur l’avenir du BMDE.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tIl est vrai que la situation se d\u00e9t\u00e9riore d’une fa\u00e7on r\u00e9guli\u00e8re, notamment dans les n\u00e9gociations entre les USA et les deux soi-disant pays-h\u00f4tes (Tch\u00e9quie et Pologne), o\u00f9 les accords \u00e9taient acquis d’avance. (En Tch\u00e9quie, l’accord \u00e9tait pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 comme boucl\u00e9 en f\u00e9vrier dernier.) D’ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0, le Pentagone recherche une alternative \u00e0 la Pologne (on parle de la Lituanie), tout en affirmant que les n\u00e9gociations avec cette m\u00eame Pologne continuent dans la meilleure humeur possible. (Ces rafra\u00eechissantes remarques, dans Defense News<\/em> du 16 juin, nous indiquant que tout va bien avec la Pologne et qu’on cherche autre chose: \u00abU.S. Air Force Gen. Henry Trey Obering, director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA), said he is confident Poland will ultimately agree to host the proposed interceptor site. However, the United States is developing a backup plan involving other countries, he said.<\/em>\u00bb)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tPetrov, de UPI, r\u00e9sume la situation des n\u00e9gociations de cette fa\u00e7on:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\t\u00abThe Czech government is on the verge of a crisis. Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek said his Cabinet might collapse in the fall. He admitted the Cabinet lost a firm majority in Parliament over the possible deployment of a high-frequency radar of the U.S. third positioning strategic missile defense area in the Czech Republic. Environmentalist deputies did not even want to hear about it, while others insist on a nationwide referendum, which the government cannot win because 68 percent of the population is emphatically against the deployment.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThe situation in the Czech Republic is not the only bad news for the Pentagon. U.S. relations with Poland are even worse. Warsaw demands that Washington pay $20 billion for the missile interceptor base at Gorsko. Poland wants to spend the money on reforming its armed forces and protecting itself against a potential Russian threat. It is planning, among other things, to buy American Patriot PAC-3 air defense systems.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tIl y a un \u00e9norme d\u00e9saccord entre la Pologne et le Pentagone sur la question des gros sous. Certaines sources \u00e0 Bruxelles indiquent qu’il y a une diff\u00e9rence de l’ordre de 1 \u00e0 50, entre ce qu’est pr\u00eat \u00e0 donner le Pentagone et le minimum que sont pr\u00eats \u00e0 accepter les Polonais. Les Polonais n’esp\u00e8rent plus d’accord avec l’actuelle administration, et cette perspective se renforce d’un ardent scepticisme sur l’ensemble du programme.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tSur le m\u00eame front financier, il y a la nouvelle que la Chambre des Repr\u00e9sentants a r\u00e9duit le budget du syst\u00e8me anti-missiles de $720 millions, avec des pr\u00e9cisions restrictives concernant le BMDE. Ces points nous permettent d’encha\u00eener sur la r\u00e9union du Carnegie center de Moscou.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\t\u00abExpenses on the construction of bases in the Czech Republic and Poland have been reduced by $232 million. Congress declared this restriction would be valid until Washington signed agreements with Prague and Warsaw on the deployment of the radar and missile interceptors on their territory.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThis means the current Republican administration will not be able to start the deployment of the U.S. missile defense system in Europe. Leading U.S. experts on missile defense Joseph Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund, and Philip Coyle, senior adviser at the Center for Defense Information expressed this opinion at the Carnegie Center during their recent visit to Moscow.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThe Carnegie Center hosted a roundtable discussion on the future of missile defenses in U.S. strategy and policy, and the American experts, both Democrats, agreed that if their nominee Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., wins the presidential election, which is quite likely, the deployment of the missile defense system in Europe, which worries Russia so much, may be put on the back burner.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThis may happen not only because the Pentagon cannot reach a final agreement with Poland and the Czech Republic, but also because the threat emanating for the United States from ballistic missiles from \u00a0\u00bbrogue states,\u00a0\u00bb among which Washington lists Iran, is not as severe as the administration portrays it.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tEn gros et en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, on peut avancer l’hypoth\u00e8se que le programme BMDE commence \u00e0 sombrer, notamment et principalement, dans la crise budg\u00e9taire du Pentagone, avec la perspective d’un Congr\u00e8s de plus en plus agressif \u00e0 mesure que l’on approche de la fin de l’administration Bush. En m\u00eame temps, la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de cette entreprise, bas\u00e9e sur une simple pouss\u00e9e du complexe militaro-industriel et appuy\u00e9e sur une argumentation strat\u00e9gique surr\u00e9aliste \u00e0 force d’\u00eatre faussaire, contribue \u00e0 un discr\u00e9dit g\u00e9n\u00e9ral du programme. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tIl devient aujourd’hui probable que le BMDE puisse p\u00e9rir de sa belle mort bureaucratique, par absence d’argent et par d\u00e9sint\u00e9r\u00eat g\u00e9n\u00e9ral chez les alli\u00e9s europ\u00e9ens (Tch\u00e9quie et Pologne) pour une affaire qui pr\u00e9sente d\u00e9sormais beaucoup plus de risques int\u00e9rieurs que d’avantages politiques et financiers. Le BMDE est en train d’appara\u00eetre pour ce qu’il est, un simple programme du complexe militaro-industriel pour faire tourner l’argent. Cela ne serait pourtant pas sans cons\u00e9quence politique puisque l’argument pour vendre ce programme a effectivement \u00e9t\u00e9 un montage politico-strat\u00e9gique appuy\u00e9 sur la fiction de la puissance et de l’alliance US, et que c’est cela, la puissance et l’alliance US, qui essuierait une d\u00e9faite avec l’abandon du programme.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\tMis en ligne le 20 juin 2008 \u00e0 08H07<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Les avis et analyse concernant le syst\u00e8me anti-missiles (BMDE) que les USA veulent installer en Europe (en Tch\u00e9quie et en Pologne) se colorent d\u00e9sormais du pessimisme le plus noir. Un rapport, pour UPI le 19 juin, de Nikita Petrov, fait notamment \u00e9tat d’une table ronde tenue \u00e0 Moscou sous les auspices du Carnegie Center, qui… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4314,3806,3194,2827,5551],"class_list":["post-69981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-bmde","tag-cmi","tag-pentagone","tag-pologne","tag-tchequie"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69981"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69981\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}