{"id":70006,"date":"2008-06-30T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2008-06-30T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2008\/06\/30\/un-moment-de-verite\/"},"modified":"2008-06-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2008-06-30T00:00:00","slug":"un-moment-de-verite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2008\/06\/30\/un-moment-de-verite\/","title":{"rendered":"Un moment de v\u00e9rit\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><p>Selon l&rsquo;ancien secr\u00e9taire au tr\u00e9sor de l&rsquo;administration Clinton Lawrence Summers, nous nous trouvons \u00e0 un moment d\u00e9cisif de la crise financi\u00e8re. Summers fait de cette id\u00e9e le th\u00e8me de sa chronique du <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/0\/916e6012-45fa-11dd-9009-0000779fd2ac.html\" class=\"gen\">jour<\/a> du <em>Financial Times<\/em>. Il sugg\u00e8re les actions qui doivent \u00eatre d\u00e9cid\u00e9es. On citera ici l&rsquo;introduction et la conclusion du texte, qui fixent, pour Sumers, la gravit\u00e9 du moment.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00ab<em>It is quite possible that we are now at the most dangerous moment since the American financial crisis began last August. Staggering increases in the prices of oil and other commodities have brought American consumer confidence to new lows and raised serious concerns about inflation, thereby limiting the capacity of monetary policy to respond to a financial sector which  judging by equity values  is at its weakest point since the crisis began. With housing values still falling and growing evidence that problems are spreading to the construction and consumer credit sectors, there is a possibility that a faltering economy damages the financial system, which weakens the economy further.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t(&#8230;)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>Unfortunately we are in an economic environment where we have more to fear than fear itself. But this is no excuse for fatalism. The policy choices made in the next few months will matter to the lives of millions of Americans, to America&rsquo;s economic strength and to the global economy.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tLes mesures que propose Summers sont largement des mesures de r\u00e9gulation et d&rsquo;intervention \u00e9conomique, notamment de la part du Congr\u00e8s. Cela suppose une volont\u00e9 politique qui, en temps normal, n&rsquo;existe plus gu\u00e8re, et qui, en temps de campagne \u00e9lectorale, n&rsquo;est plus qu&rsquo;un lointain souvenir. On verra.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tIl y a une bonne illustration des m\u00e9thodes d&rsquo;intervention et des capacit\u00e9s d&rsquo;intervention des autorit\u00e9s US dans ces temps de crise, avec un texte du site <em>WSWS.org<\/em>,  qui cite l&rsquo;article de Summers. <em>WSWS.org<\/em> donne (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.wsws.org\/articles\/2008\/jun2008\/fedr-j30.shtml \" class=\"gen\">aujourd&rsquo;hui<\/a>) une int\u00e9ressante vision int\u00e9rieure de ce que fut l&rsquo;action de la Federal Reserve lors de la crise sp\u00e9cifique de la Bear Stearns, les 13-15 mars, qui fut certainement l&rsquo;une des moment cathartiques de la crise g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, un moment o\u00f9 l&rsquo;on put craindre craindre que le syst\u00e8me financier dans son ensemble allait s&rsquo;effondrer. Ce qui appara\u00eet est une situation faite \u00e0 la fois de panique, d&rsquo;urgence et d&rsquo;improvisation, montrant que la Federal Reserve \u00e9tait prise \u00e0 la gorge et, d&rsquo;une fa\u00e7on plus g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, prise par surprise. Ecartant toutes les normes et tous les dogmes de la doctrine \u00e9conomique qu&rsquo;elle est cens\u00e9e d\u00e9fendre, la <em>Fed<\/em> intervint comme si elle s&rsquo;apercevait brusquement que le monde \u00e9tait au bord du gouffre. Il l&rsquo;\u00e9tait sans doute. Lawrence Summers, lui, nous avertit que nous sommes <strong>toujours<\/strong> au bord du gouffre.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00ab<em>The Fed became involved on March 13 when Bear Stearns notified it and other government agencies that its liquidity position had deteriorated and that it would have to file for bankruptcy the next day unless alternative sources of funds were found. Bear Stearns had been experiencing increasing difficulty since the previous June when two major hedge funds it owned collapsed, losing about $1.6 billion of investors&rsquo; funds.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>The Fed&rsquo;s board of governors met at 9.15 the following morning to authorise a bailout operation. As the minutes make clear, there was a real fear that the entire financial system was on the point of collapse.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>Board members agreed that, given the fragile condition of the financial markets at the time, the prominent position of Bear Stearns in those markets, and the expected contagion that would result from the immediate failure of Bear Stearns, the best alternative available was to provide temporary emergency financing to Bear Stearns through an arrangement with JPMorgan Chase &#038; Co. also in New York. Such a loan would facilitate efforts to effect a resolution of the Bear Stearns situation that would be consistent with preserving financial stability, the minutes read.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>Not only did the board authorise credit to Bear Stearns via JPMorgan Chase, it also decided to make funds available more broadly.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>The minutes note that given the unusual and exigent circumstances, the board authorised the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in consultation with Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, to provide financing to other primary securities dealers, when the Reserve Bank finds that adequate credit accommodations are not available to the borrower from other banking institutions.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>In other words, the board feared the collapse of Bear Stearns would induce a general crisis of confidence across financial markets leading to the drying up of credit.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>Such was the haste with which the meeting had been called that the board could not summon the requisite five governors, and so invoked emergency powers enabling it to make decisions with only four present.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>Fed chairman Bernanke elaborated on the potential for a US and global financial collapse in his later testimony to the US Congress on the crisis. Because Bear Stearns was extensively involved in a range of critical markets, he said, its sudden failure likely would have led to a chaotic unwinding of positions in those markets and could have shaken confidence. The company&rsquo;s failure could also have cast doubt on the financial positions of some of Bear Stearns&rsquo; thousands of counterparties and perhaps of companies with similar businesses.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>Given the exceptional pressures on the global economy and the financial system, the damage caused by a default by Bear Stearns could have been severe and extremely difficult to contain. Moreover, the adverse impact of a default would not have been confined to the financial system but would have been felt broadly in the real economy through its effects on asset values and credit availability.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><p>\tMis en ligne le 30  juin 2008 \u00e0 07H51<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Selon l&rsquo;ancien secr\u00e9taire au tr\u00e9sor de l&rsquo;administration Clinton Lawrence Summers, nous nous trouvons \u00e0 un moment d\u00e9cisif de la crise financi\u00e8re. Summers fait de cette id\u00e9e le th\u00e8me de sa chronique du jour du Financial Times. Il sugg\u00e8re les actions qui doivent \u00eatre d\u00e9cid\u00e9es. On citera ici l&rsquo;introduction et la conclusion du texte, qui fixent,&hellip;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[6936,3228,6937,5029],"class_list":["post-70006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-bernanke","tag-crise","tag-fed","tag-summers"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70006","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70006"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70006\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70006"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}