{"id":70041,"date":"2008-07-14T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2008-07-14T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2008\/07\/14\/bon-anniversaire-monsieur-rees-mogg\/"},"modified":"2008-07-14T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2008-07-14T00:00:00","slug":"bon-anniversaire-monsieur-rees-mogg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2008\/07\/14\/bon-anniversaire-monsieur-rees-mogg\/","title":{"rendered":"Bon anniversaire, monsieur Rees-Mogg"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le v\u00e9n\u00e9rable et tr\u00e8s fameux chroniqueur du Times<\/em>, William Rees-Mogg, nous annonce qu’il f\u00eate aujourd’hui ses 80 ans, dans sa chronique du 14 juillet<\/a> \u00e9videmmen puisqu’il est n\u00e9 le 14 juillet 1928. C’\u00e9tait peu avant que sonnent les trois coups de la Grande D\u00e9pression. Il avoue ne pas se souvenir des bruits du grand Crash<\/em> de Wall Street, et on lui en voudra pas parce qu’\u00e0 un an on n’a pas encore l’oreille fine. Mais il garde des \u00e9chos des terribles ann\u00e9es 1930, suffisamment pour nous rappeler que si la Grande D\u00e9pression reste fameuse dans nos m\u00e9moires pour sa terrible d\u00e9vastation aux USA, elle frappa aussi terriblement l’Europe, et notamment le Royaume-Uni.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abI do however, remember newspaper articles about the later stages of the Depression. In the 1930s, my parents read The Times, the Financial Times and the Daily Mail.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbI can remember the news stories of the Jarrow march of the unemployed. I also remember discussing with my mother a lead story which reported that farm workers’ pay was to be raised 6d (2p) to what would now be \u00a31.50 a week. The depression was a fact of existence in the North Somerset coalfield up to the outbreak of war in 1939.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tPuis Rees-Mogg poursuit l’\u00e9gr\u00e8nement de ses souvenirs en les m\u00e9langeant \u00e0 ses r\u00e9flexions de chroniqueur financier. Tout cela est \u00e9crit sur le fond d’une question lancinante: est-ce la seule Grande D\u00e9pression, celle des ann\u00e9es 1930, que Rees-Mogg conna\u00eetra dans sa vie? De ce point de vue, les circonstances actuelles ne le rendent pas optimiste. Il y voit des similitudes, dans l’encha\u00eenement, dans la m\u00e9canique en marche, avec les terribles ann\u00e9es d’il y a trois-quarts de si\u00e8cle. Il met justement en \u00e9vidence un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne dynamique : le rythme des \u00e9v\u00e9nements, comme si la crise \u00e9tait en train d’acqu\u00e9rir un rythme qui lui est propre, sa propre vie en un sens, qui est bien entendu la caract\u00e9ristique de la perte de contr\u00f4le, \u00abThere is now a momentum of negative events sweeping away financial flood defences<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abThis recession has produced a succession of nasty surprises. Things are always proving to be worse than anyone had expected. Last week the crisis spread to the American mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, created by President Roosevelt in 1938.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThese are far bigger than the investment bank Bear Stearns and Northern Rock put together. They have brought the crisis from the level of billions of dollars, to the level of trillions. No doubt they will be saved because the US would be bust if they went down. But you cannot save six- trillion-dollar institutions without suffering on a large scale.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe debt crisis, the banking crisis, the property crisis, the oil crisis, the shift to Asia, the bear market in stocks, are huge global adjustments that have all come together at the same time.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbIf my birthday does not prove to be another Black Monday on Wall Street, I shall think myself rather lucky. There is now a momentum of negative events sweeping away financial flood defences; in the 1930s that force overturned democratic governments as easily as it overturned banks.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbBefore we get back to balance, we may see dramatic changes in politics, as well as in business and finance.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t…D’ailleurs, Rees-Moog n’est pas seul pour son anniversaire. Franchement, tout le monde est pessimiste. Le paradoxe amer triomphe, comme le souligne Tony Jackson, dans le Financial Times<\/em> du 13 juillet<\/a>; paradoxe amer, pour nous autres Europ\u00e9ens qui aimons tant que l’Am\u00e9rique nous montre la voie et soit notre mod\u00e8le: \u00abJudging by the US, the worst may be yet to come<\/em>\u00bb, titre Tony Jackson.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abYou can always count on America to give the world a lead. Just as it kicked off the credit crisis, so it stays at the cutting edge as the crisis unfolds. So much the worse for the rest of us.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbPhase I the writedown of dodgy securities is by no means over, but is no longer the big story. Phase II the travails of ordinary commercial banks is now well under way. And this, of course, is the mechanism whereby the credit crunch transmits itself to the real economy.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tMis en ligne le 14 juillet 2008 \u00e0 05H09<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le v\u00e9n\u00e9rable et tr\u00e8s fameux chroniqueur du Times, William Rees-Mogg, nous annonce qu’il f\u00eate aujourd’hui ses 80 ans, dans sa chronique du 14 juillet \u00e9videmmen puisqu’il est n\u00e9 le 14 juillet 1928. C’\u00e9tait peu avant que sonnent les trois coups de la Grande D\u00e9pression. Il avoue ne pas se souvenir des bruits du grand Crash… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5463,3083,2891,7401,7678,3372,3132],"class_list":["post-70041","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-anniversaire","tag-depression","tag-grande","tag-krach","tag-rees-mogg","tag-street","tag-wall"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70041","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70041"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70041\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70041"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}