No world leader seems able to discern the problem, let alone forge a solution.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00abIt feels like the summer of 1931. The world’s two biggest financial institutions have had a heart attack. The global currency system is breaking down. The policy doctrines that got us into this mess are bankrupt. No world leader seems able to discern the problem, let alone forge a solution.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThe International Monetary Fund has abdicated into schizophrenia. It has upgraded its 2008 world forecast from 3.7pc to 4.1pc growth, whilst warning of a chance of a global r\u00e9cession. Plainly, the IMF cannot or will not offer any useful insights.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbIts mean-reversion model misses the entire point of this crisis, which is that central banks have pushed debt to fatal levels by holding interest too low for a generation, and now the chickens have come home to roost. True \u00a0\u00bbmean-reversion\u00a0\u00bb would imply debt deflation on such a scale that would, if abrupt, threaten democracy.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tEvans-Pritchard passe donc en revue l’\u00e9tat du monde et nous fait part de ses pr\u00e9visions. Il voit la crise frapper toutes les parties du monde. Il d\u00e9taille les p\u00e9rip\u00e9ties du drame. Il met en \u00e9vidence la position difficile de l’Europe, la crise terrible qui frappe d’ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0 l’Espagne. Cette description g\u00e9n\u00e9rale semble, effectivement, surtout faite pour tenter d’alerte les dirigeants du syst\u00e8me dont il ne manque pas, au passage, de critiquer les actions qu’ils ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 entreprises; le FMI du Fran\u00e7ais Strauss-Kahn, comme on le lit, autant que la Fed<\/em> de Bernanke. (\u00abThe awful reality is that Washington has its back to the wall. Fed chief Ben Bernanke thought the US could always get out of trouble by monetary stimulus \u00e0 outrance, and letting the dollar slide. He has learned that the world is a more complicated place.<\/em>\u00bb)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tNous importe moins le d\u00e9tail prospectif de la crise qu’effectivement la position des directions politico-\u00e9conomiques. Il y a une semaine, le monde s’\u00e9croulait en m\u00eame temps que les jumeaux Fannie & Freddie. Aujourd’hui, tout semble rentr\u00e9 dans l’ordre, oubli\u00e9, si m\u00eame cela a jamais exist\u00e9, au profit de l’enthousiasme du jour, cette fois pour le candidat d\u00e9mocrate Obama, institu\u00e9 pr\u00e9sident des USA quatre mois avant terme par acclamations du monde entier. Nous sommes peut-\u00eatre \u00e0 l’\u00e9t\u00e9 1931 pour ce qui est des mati\u00e8res \u00e9conomiques et financi\u00e8res, mais certes pas pour la psychologie. A l’\u00e9t\u00e9 1931, les dirigeants politico-\u00e9conomiques se rendaient compte du d\u00e9veloppement de la crise, m\u00eame si les mesures qu’ils prirent ou ne prirent pas peuvent \u00eatre jug\u00e9es, r\u00e9trospectivement, inutiles, inefficaces ou inappropri\u00e9es. Aujourd’hui o\u00f9 plusieurs mondes cohabitent, il semble qu’on puisse quitter \u00e0 volont\u00e9 celui de Fannie & Freddie quand, vraiment, ce monde-l\u00e0 devient trop accablant \u00e0 supporter.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tPar cons\u00e9quent, la pr\u00e9vision que fait Evans-Pritchard sonne plut\u00f4t comme le tocsin. Evidemment, tout, dans la conclusion ci-dessous, se trouve dans ce Should our leaders…<\/em>. Si les dirigeants politico-\u00e9conomiques se comportent comme ils se sont comport\u00e9s jusque l\u00e0, et pourquoi changeraient-ils, lorsqu’ils semblent si satisfaits d’eux-m\u00eames? alors, nous avons un probl\u00e8me, et nous l’identifions parfaitement.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00abIf we are lucky, America will start to stabilise before Asia goes down. Should our leaders mismanage affairs, almost every part of the global system will go down together. Then we are in trouble.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tMis en ligne le 23 juillet 2008 \u00e0 16H46<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, l’un des commentateurs financiers et \u00e9conomiques de la place de Londres les plus \u00e9cout\u00e9s, est furieux m\u00eame si la chose est discr\u00e8te. On le comprend \u00e0 lire son dernier commentaire, \u00abThe global economy is at the point of maximum danger \u00bb, dans le Daily Telegraph du 21 juillet. Si ce commentaire est une… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[7691,3228,5225],"class_list":["post-70065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-7691","tag-crise","tag-evans-pritchard"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70065"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70065\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}