Alors que la baisse du prix du p\u00e9trole dans ces deux derni\u00e8res semaines a introduit une sorte de sentiment d’euphorie en laissant penser que la crise du prix du p\u00e9trole est pass\u00e9e, et que la \u00ab\u00a0crise\u00a0\u00bb n’\u00e9tait d’ailleurs pas une vraie crise, un prestigieux institut britannique publie un rapport avertissant que la perspective d’un baril de p\u00e9trole s’\u00e9tablissant structurellement autour de $200 est tr\u00e8s probable d’ici 5-10 ans. Il s’agit du RIUS, institut c\u00e9l\u00e8bre pour ses s\u00e9minaires dits \u00ab\u00a0de Chatam House\u00a0\u00bb. Le rapport est nomm\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0The Coming Oil Supply Crunch<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb et il est \u00e9crit par le professeur Paul Stevens.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n L’appr\u00e9ciation de Stevens est que divers facteurs d’impr\u00e9voyance ou d’interf\u00e9rences politiques et autres ont emp\u00each\u00e9, emp\u00eachent et vont emp\u00eacher l’exploitation ad\u00e9quate des ressources p\u00e9troli\u00e8res, et leur distribution r\u00e9guli\u00e8re. Cette \u00e9volution aboutira \u00e0 une situation où la demande ne pourra plus \u00eatre satisfaite. La seule possibilit\u00e9 d’\u00e9viter la crise dans tous les cas pour le d\u00e9lai indiqu\u00e9, selon Stevens, serait une r\u00e9cession \u00e9conomique majeure qui r\u00e9duirait la demande d’une fa\u00e7on cons\u00e9quente («In reality, the only possibility of avoiding such a crunch appears to be if a major recession reduces demand – and even then such an outcome may only postpone the problem<\/em>»). Il s’agit de l’habituelle contradiction dans la crise syst\u00e9mique de notre d\u00e9veloppement, entre les n\u00e9cessit\u00e9s de l’expansion et les limitations diverses des r\u00e9serves d’\u00e9nergie, notamment les limitations des processus de production, avec comme solution la r\u00e9duction de l’expansion, c’est-\u00e0-dire en termes \u00e9conomiques classiques une grave crise \u00e9conomique et une crise \u00e9conomique durable; encore cette appr\u00e9ciation paradoxale coutumi\u00e8re est-elle faite sans tenir compte des n\u00e9cessit\u00e9s de la lutte contre l’\u00e9mission de gaz \u00e0 effets de serre.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n «Prof Stevens warned that investment in new oil supplies has been inadequate as oil firms prefer to return profits to shareholders rather than reinvest it.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n »Furthermore, oil producing cartel Opec has failed to meet plans to expand its capacity since 2005. He also argued that a \u00ab\u00a0resurgence of resource nationalism\u00a0\u00bb means that governments are \u00ab\u00a0starving\u00a0\u00bb their national oil companies of investment by excluding international oil firms from helping to develop capacity.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n »\u00ab\u00a0While the forecast is controversial and extremely bullish, even allowing for some increase in capacity over the next few years, a supply crunch appears likely around 2013,\u00a0\u00bb he added. \u00ab\u00a0The implication is that it will quickly translate into a price spike although there is a question over how strategic stocks might be used to alleviate this.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n »However, Prof Stevens does conclude that only \u00ab\u00a0extreme policy measures could achieve a speedy response\u00a0\u00bb in boosting supplies and lowering oil prices – a move that is likely to be \u00ab\u00a0politically unpopular\u00a0\u00bb.<\/em>»<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Mis en ligne le 8 août 2008 \u00e0 16H28<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" On insiste : le p\u00e9trole \u00e0 $200 le baril d’ici 5-10 ans Alors que la baisse du prix du p\u00e9trole dans ces deux derni\u00e8res semaines a introduit une sorte de sentiment d’euphorie en laissant penser que la crise du prix du p\u00e9trole est pass\u00e9e, et que la \u00ab\u00a0crise\u00a0\u00bb n’\u00e9tait d’ailleurs pas une vraie crise, un… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[7583,5655,5737,3228,4640,3534,3725,4359],"class_list":["post-70103","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-7583","tag-baril","tag-chatam","tag-crise","tag-house","tag-production","tag-recession","tag-stevens"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70103","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70103"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70103\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70103"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70103"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70103"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}