L’id\u00e9e que la crise financi\u00e8re, le 9\/11 financier de ce mois de septembre 2008, est plus qu’un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne financier commence \u00e0 se r\u00e9pandre. Elle rejoint notre analyse<\/a> selon laquelle le 9\/11 financier n’est qu’une crise sectorielle, d\u00e9pendant d’une crise syst\u00e9mique centrale et, par cons\u00e9quent, inscrite dans la logique m\u00e9tahistorique d’autres crises sectorielles (son lien avec la crise g\u00e9opolitique g\u00e9orgienne, notamment par le biais des cons\u00e9quences sur la situation europ\u00e9enne<\/a>), nourrissant d’autres crises sectorielles, voire s’\u00e9largissant \u00e0 elles, comme c’est le cas avec son \u00e9largissement \u00e0 la crise politique washingtonienne.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tD’o\u00f9 notre int\u00e9r\u00eat pour cet article de John Gray, auteur de Black Mass: Apocalyptic Religion and the Death of Utopia<\/em>, dans l’Observer<\/em> du 28 septembre<\/a>. Gray juge que le 9\/11 financier est l’annonce du passage de l’hyperpuissance US \u00e0 un stade de quasi-impotence \u00e9quivalent, sous une autre forme, \u00e0 celui de l’URSS \u00e0 la chute du Mur de Berlin (\u00abIn a change as far-reaching in its implications as the fall of the Soviet Union, an entire model of government and the economy has collapsed<\/em>\u00bb)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tGray observe d’abord que l’extension consid\u00e9rable du gouvernement US par le biais de son interventionnisme, ainsi que l’apport de capitaux ext\u00e9rieurs, va rendre ce gouvernement de plus en plus d\u00e9pendant de tous ces subsides ext\u00e9rieurs, d’une fa\u00e7on ou l’autre, par les pressions auxquelles il devra se soumettre de la part de ceux qui le subsidient, ou par un affaiblissement catastrophique (jusqu’\u00e0 l’hypoth\u00e8se Walker<\/a>?) si les forces subsidiaires refusent de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 cet appel ou se retirent.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abIn present circumstances, an unprecedented expansion of government is the only means of averting a market catastrophe. The consequence, however, will be that America will be even more starkly dependent on the world’s new rising powers. The federal government is racking up even larger borrowings, which its creditors may rightly fear will never be repaid. It may well be tempted to inflate these debts away in a surge of inflation that would leave foreign investors with hefty losses. In these circumstances, will the governments of countries that buy large quantities of American bonds, China, the Gulf States and Russia, for example, be ready to continue supporting the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency? Or will these countries see this as an opportunity to tilt the balance of economic power further in their favour? Either way, the control of events is no longer in American hands.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThe fate of empires is very often sealed by the interaction of war and debt. That was true of the British Empire, whose finances deteriorated from the First World War onwards, and of the Soviet Union. Defeat in Afghanistan and the economic burden of trying to respond to Reagan’s technically flawed but politically extremely effective Star Wars programme were vital factors in triggering the Soviet collapse. Despite its insistent exceptionalism, America is no different. The Iraq War and the credit bubble have fatally undermined America’s economic primacy. The US will continue to be the world’s largest economy for a while longer, but it will be the new rising powers that, once the crisis is over, buy up what remains intact in the wreckage of America’s financial system.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tL\u00e0-dessus, Gray d\u00e9veloppe cette perception de la corr\u00e9lation des crises en observant que la crise financi\u00e8re aura n\u00e9cessairement un impact tr\u00e8s fort sur l’action g\u00e9opolitique am\u00e9ricaniste, entra\u00eenant une crise g\u00e9opolitique et un retrait cons\u00e9quent de cette puissance de ses divers engagements. C’est le sch\u00e9ma de la fin de l’empire sous la pression de la r\u00e9duction radicale des moyens. Gray fait une remarque int\u00e9ressante en notant que l’affaiblissement am\u00e9ricaniste, qui frise l’effondrement, se fait \u00e0 une rapidit\u00e9 infiniment plus grande que ce que les pr\u00e9visionnistes attendaient en le liant \u00e0 l’\u00e9mergence de puissances concurrentes. (\u00abRetrenchment is inevitable and it is unlikely to be gradual or well planned.<\/em> [] What is evident is that power is leaking from the US at an accelerating rate.<\/em> [] [Most people] imagined that this would be a change in America’s comparative standing, taking place incrementally over several decades or generations. Today, that looks an increasingly unrealistic assumption.<\/em>\u00bb)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abThe irony of the post-Cold War period is that the fall of communism was followed by the rise of another utopian ideology. In American and Britain, and to a lesser extent other Western countries, a type of market fundamentalism became the guiding philosophy. The collapse of American power that is underway is the predictable upshot. Like the Soviet collapse, it will have large geopolitical repercussions. An enfeebled economy cannot support America’s over-extended military commitments for much longer. Retrenchment is inevitable and it is unlikely to be gradual or well planned.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbMeltdowns on the scale we are seeing are not slow-motion events. They are swift and chaotic, with rapidly spreading side-effects. Consider Iraq. The success of the surge, which has been achieved by bribing the Sunnis, while acquiescing in ongoing ethnic cleansing, has produced a condition of relative peace in parts of the country. How long will this last, given that America’s current level of expenditure on the war can no longer be sustained?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbAn American retreat from Iraq will leave Iran the regional victor. How will Saudi Arabia respond? Will military action to forestall Iran acquiring nuclear weapons be less or more likely? China’s rulers have so far been silent during the unfolding crisis. Will America’s weakness embolden them to assert China’s power or will China continue its cautious policy of ‘peaceful rise’? At present, none of these questions can be answered with any confidence. What is evident is that power is leaking from the US at an accelerating rate. Georgia showed Russia redrawing the geopolitical map, with America an impotent spectator.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbOutside the US, most people have long accepted that the development of new economies that goes with globalisation will undermine America’s central position in the world. They imagined that this would be a change in America’s comparative standing, taking place incrementally over several decades or generations. Today, that looks an increasingly unrealistic assumption.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbHaving created the conditions that produced history’s biggest bubble, America’s political leaders appear unable to grasp the magnitude of the dangers the country now faces. Mired in their rancorous culture wars and squabbling among themselves, they seem oblivious to the fact that American global leadership is fast ebbing away. A new world is coming into being almost unnoticed, where America is only one of several great powers, facing an uncertain future it can no longer shape.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tLa logique est impeccable, sinon implacable, en prenant en compte les derniers d\u00e9veloppements catastrophiques. Il manque pourtant notre dimension favorite. La psychologie US n’est pas pr\u00eate \u00e0 accepter l’id\u00e9e d’un retrait, et ne le sera \u00e0 notre sens jamais<\/strong>, \u00e0 moins d’un changement catastrophique impliquant un bouleversement psychologique. Un exemple est donn\u00e9 par la crise g\u00e9orgienne: Gray a raison de dire que les USA ont observ\u00e9 la crise g\u00e9orgienne dans la plus totale impuissance (\u00abGeorgia showed Russia redrawing the geopolitical map, with America an impotent spectator<\/em>\u00bb). Il n’emp\u00eache que les USA continuent \u00e0 affirmer leur toute puissance dans cette affaire, \u00e0 affirmer que la Russie est isol\u00e9e, \u00e0 promouvoir l’entr\u00e9e de la G\u00e9orgie et de l’Ukraine dans l’OTAN, \u00e0 r\u00e9armer(prudemment, tout de m\u00eame) la G\u00e9orgie. Ils n’ont rien retir\u00e9 d’enseignement de la crise, rien accept\u00e9 de ses cons\u00e9quences, rien chang\u00e9 \u00e0 leur attitude imp\u00e9rative et arrogante. Leur psychologie le leur interdit.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tA notre sens, c’est l\u00e0 la principale crise qui nous attend. La psychologie reste la ma\u00eetresse du jeu et la psychologie am\u00e9ricaniste est totalement infect\u00e9e par la vanit\u00e9, par l’hubris<\/em>, et totalement incapable de tirer la le\u00e7on des \u00e9v\u00e9nements. Elle est compl\u00e8tement autiste, caract\u00e9ris\u00e9e par l’inculpabilit\u00e9<\/a> et l’ind\u00e9fectibilit\u00e9<\/a>. Le d\u00e9clin acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 de la puissance US sera refus\u00e9 par les dirigeants US, qui continueront \u00e0 affirmer leur puissance comme si rien ne se passait, jusqu’\u00e0 un point de rupture catastrophique. Ce point de rupture pourrait \u00eatre ext\u00e9rieur (dans les rapports antagonistes entre les USA et d’autres puissances \u00e0 propos des pr\u00e9tentions US devenues insupportables). Il pourrait \u00eatre, \u00e0 notre avis plus s\u00fbrement, int\u00e9rieur, avec des remous d\u00e9structurants du pouvoir US; la rapidit\u00e9 de l’extension de la crise financi\u00e8re en crise politique \u00e0 laquelle on assiste aujourd’hui, avec la possibilit\u00e9 de remous au niveau populaire, nous fait en effet penser qu’il existe \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard une s\u00e9rieuse dynamique potentielle.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \tMis en ligne le 29 septembre 2008 14H20<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" L’id\u00e9e que la crise financi\u00e8re, le 9\/11 financier de ce mois de septembre 2008, est plus qu’un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne financier commence \u00e0 se r\u00e9pandre. Elle rejoint notre analyse selon laquelle le 9\/11 financier n’est qu’une crise sectorielle, d\u00e9pendant d’une crise syst\u00e9mique centrale et, par cons\u00e9quent, inscrite dans la logique m\u00e9tahistorique d’autres crises sectorielles (son lien avec… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3228,708,2670,5519,7818,3634,4735,3099,2730,2671],"class_list":["post-70236","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-crise","tag-empire","tag-financiere","tag-georgie","tag-gray","tag-inculpabilite","tag-indefectibilite","tag-psychologie","tag-russie","tag-us"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70236","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70236"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70236\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70236"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70236"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70236"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}