Likoud<\/em> \u00e9tait gagnant? C’est l’hypoth\u00e8se qu’envisage Lind, dans un cadre g\u00e9n\u00e9ral o\u00f9 Obama aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9lu et o\u00f9 tout le monde en attendrait l’apaisement des engagements guerriers US, notamment au Moyen-Orient<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00abA Likud government in Israel come next spring would make two wars virtually certain: a war between Israel and Hezbollah and another between Israel and Iran. The Israeli military leadership recently announced that in the event of another war with Hezbollah, Israel would destroy Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure throughout the country. Since the neo-libs will make certain America backs Israel to the hilt, worldwide Islamic anger over the unnecessary destruction of a small, helpless Middle Eastern country (at least a third of whose people are Christians) will focus as much on America as on Israel. Islamic 4GW organizations will get a huge boost to their recruiting and fundraising, while the legitimacy of Islamic states with ties to America will be further weakened.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbAn Israeli attack on Iran, in turn, could bring about the loss of the army America has in Iraq. If I sound like Cato in repeating this warning endlessly, I do so with reason. The destruction of an entire American army would mark an historic turning point, America’s Syracuse Expedition, which is what the Iraq war has resembled from the start. Our strategic position in Iraq hangs by a thread, its long, thin supply line coming up through the Persian Gulf and Kuwait. If Iran and its allied Iraqi Shi’ite militias cut that line, the best outcome we can hope for is a sauve qui peut withdrawal of U.S. forces north into Kurdistan.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbTo this happy picture a Likud government in Israel might add a war with Syria and an open U.S. break with Pakistan, driven by Pakistani popular anger at America for its alliance with a Likud-led Israel. That would cut our main supply line for the war in Afghanistan, again forcing a withdrawal.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbAll of this would occur against a background of a world economic depression, a depression wars in the Middle East would intensify. The price of oil, now artificially depressed by a fire sale of commodities held by hedge funds, would soar to unprecedented heights. Those countries still exporting oil might dump the dollar and demand payment in gold. The American defense budget could skyrocket at a time when the U.S. faced an urgent need to cut federal spending, leading to printing-press dollars and hyperinflation.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tCe que Lind \u00e9crit de l’influence d’Isra\u00ebl sur les d\u00e9mocrates, et sur Obama sans nul doute, est conforme \u00e0 ce qu’on sait de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard. Cette situation d\u00e9crite par Lind pourrait constituer une sorte d’exemple structurel d’une pr\u00e9sidence Obama b\u00e2tie sur un pl\u00e9biscite et d’une victoire \u00e9crasante du parti d\u00e9mocrate au Congr\u00e8s. Il s’agirait d’une part de l’installation d’une puissance force politique sans doute sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent dans l’histoire des USA, quasiment sans contrepartie ni contrepoids, d’autre part d’une puissante force politique avec quelques points pr\u00e9cis d’extr\u00eame faiblesse. L’influence isra\u00e9lienne du Likoud<\/em> sur les d\u00e9mocrates, qui est un processus complexe o\u00f9 entrent en jeu des attitudes politiques autant que des situations d’influence et des m\u00e9canismes psychologiques, est un de ces points de faiblesse d’une puissante victoire d\u00e9mocrate. C’est aussi une occurrence o\u00f9 un parti d\u00e9mocrate et un Obama tourn\u00e9s vers la situation int\u00e9rieure seraient oblig\u00e9s brutalement de se retourner vers la politique ext\u00e9rieure dans des conditions tr\u00e8s difficiles.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tDe ce point de vue des imbrications de la politique, Lind n’a pas tort. Du point de vue des images, effectivement, une victoire triomphale des d\u00e9mocrates suivie d’une victoire du Likoud<\/em> installerait une situation o\u00f9 l’eau et le feu serait oblig\u00e9s de s’accorder. Le Likoud<\/em> serait d’autant plus pouss\u00e9 \u00e0 des mesures extr\u00eames qu’il aurait en face de lui un partenaire puissant mais \u00e0 propos duquel il entretiendrait quelques doutes concernant sa r\u00e9solution guerri\u00e8re (par rapport \u00e0 l’administration Bush); et sur lequel il serait conduit \u00e0 exercer toute la puissance des r\u00e9seaux de l’influence d’Isra\u00ebl sur la politique US. Les d\u00e9mocrates, soumis \u00e0 cette influence \u00e0 laquelle ils sont tr\u00e8s sensibles, seraient d’autant plus empress\u00e9s \u00e0 r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 ces sollicitations guerri\u00e8res qu’ils craindraient d’\u00eatre accus\u00e9s de faiblesse dans un domaine de politique ext\u00e9rieure r\u00e9gi essentiellement par l’influence, l’\u00e9motion de l’argument et un politically correct<\/em> pro-isra\u00e9lien de fer dans la politique US. La r\u00e9f\u00e9rence de Lind \u00e0 1914, qui est une de ses p\u00e9riodes historiques favorites, est alors justifi\u00e9e: \u00ab[The Democratic Party’s foreign policy establishment<\/em>] is as tied to Israel as Russia’s foreign policy establishment was tied to Serbia in 1914. Past, I suspect, is prologue.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tLa situation strat\u00e9gique qu’\u00e9voque Lind n’est pas nouvelle pour lui. Lind a toujours consid\u00e9r\u00e9 que le d\u00e9ploiement du corps exp\u00e9ditionnaire US en Irak constituait un risque tr\u00e8s grand de revers strat\u00e9gique, selon des effets indirects de situations autour de l’Irak. Effectivement, si une telle explosion de violence avait lieu, il semble assur\u00e9 que des r\u00e9percussions graves auraient lieu en Irak; si l’on consid\u00e8re l’actuelle d\u00e9gradation politique dans ce pays, essentiellement entre les USA avec leurs exigences et les forces politiques irakiennes principales, cette issue catastrophique qu’\u00e9voque Lind serait possible.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\tMis en ligne le 30 octobre 2008 \u00e0 05H26<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Cassandre, ou bien, selon lui-m\u00eame, Caton (le vieux Caton du Delenda est Cartago), William S. Lind continue imperturbablement \u00e0 nous offrir des sc\u00e9narios fort peu optimistes. Cette fois, il attire notre attention sur l’autre \u00e9lection, dans un article du 29 octobre sur Antiwar.com. L’autre \u00e9lection, c’est Isra\u00ebl. Si des \u00e9lections ont lieu en f\u00e9vrier 2009,… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4472,857,2773,2774,6845,1012,6208],"class_list":["post-70309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-hezbollah","tag-irak","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-likoud","tag-lind","tag-obama"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70309"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70309\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}