Sunday Times<\/em>. Le contraste est saisissant.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00abDon’t project beyond the range of the known observations is a rule followed by careful economists. In plain English this means, for example, that we know how American consumers behave when petrol prices move between $1 and $4 a gallon, the range of the known observations. But we haven’t much of an idea what consumers would do if prices rose to $5 no experience, no data to inform our forecasts. Which is why we have to be very careful when predicting the effect of the various policies that are being adopted to fight the credit crisis and recession. We simply have no experience of this combination of events.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbSo we have reason to worry about the galaxy of stars that Barack Obama has assembled to help him right the American economy. They are so bright, so self-confident, so accustomed to being the smartest guy or girl in the room, that doubt is not one of the emotions with which they are familiar, as was true of the bright young quants (mathematical economists) who designed the models used to manage the risks taken on by Lehman Brothers and AIG. Something about hubris and nemesis comes to mind.<\/em> []<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThen, the ball will be in Obama’s court. The president-elect has promised to develop a plan to restructure America’s motor industry, something that has eluded the industry’s management during its decade of decline. Experts estimate that Obama will end up spending $125 billion in pursuit of his goal.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbOnce again, it is difficult to predict the consequences of a government intervention. Advocates of a bailout are predicting that the result will be a lean, mean, green competitive Big Three, and that failure to act will reverberate through the economy. Opponents say that recourse to the bankruptcy courts is more likely to produce a healthy motor industry. Unfortunately, we simply have no experience with a bailout on this scale and in these circumstances. It is beyond the range of known observations.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThen there are Obama’s plans for an economic stimulus costing at least half-a-trillion dollars, more likely a trillion. Roads, bridges, schools and all sorts of other things fitting under the title of infrastructure will be built, providing 2.5m jobs. So says Obama’s distinguished team of economists.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbBut infrastructure projects take a long time to move from the drawing board to a shovel in the ground. So the recession might be over before any worker dirties his or her hands paving a road or putting the first rivets in a bridge. Or the stimulus might actually, well, stimulate. We won’t know until experience performs its historic role as teacher.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tQuelle diff\u00e9rence de ton, quelle diff\u00e9rence d’appr\u00e9ciation! Le 14 d\u00e9cembre, c’est une chronique sceptique, prudente, qui semble par avance \u00e9carter toute possibilit\u00e9 de succ\u00e8s imm\u00e9diat de projets et de programmes de l’administration Obama, dont on consent \u00e0 peine \u00e0 donner quelques d\u00e9tails. On ne distingue rien d’organis\u00e9, rien de coh\u00e9rent, aucune bienveillance sous la plume de l’observateur; on voit surtout l’\u00e9quipe Obama emp\u00eatr\u00e9e dans ses certitudes et une assurance qu’aucun \u00e9v\u00e9nement, ni aucune exp\u00e9rience pass\u00e9e ne justifient vraiment. Le 21 d\u00e9cembre, tout s’\u00e9claire. Soudain l’on d\u00e9couvre une coh\u00e9sion, une mobilisation, une volont\u00e9 et une r\u00e9elle alacrit\u00e9. La galaxy of stars<\/em> raill\u00e9e ici (le 14 d\u00e9cembre) devient l’objet d’une description presque admirative, magiquement m\u00e9tamorphis\u00e9e en une magnifique \u00e9quipe o\u00f9 chacun est pr\u00eat \u00e0 tenir son r\u00f4le avec humilit\u00e9 et efficacit\u00e9. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tQue s’est-il pass\u00e9 entretemps? Nous sommes notamment fond\u00e9s \u00e0 croire que Stelzer a re\u00e7u des informations et des \u00e9valuations pr\u00e9cises, avec la demande pressante de les r\u00e9percuter dans sa chronique. Il est difficile de ne pas voir dans ce changement de ton et cette modification fondamentale d’analyse, non seulement une intervention aupr\u00e8s des milieux concern\u00e9s, mais peut-\u00eatre plus encore. L’hypoth\u00e8se serait alors qu’une v\u00e9ritable impulsion nouvelle est apparue au sein de l’\u00e9quipe d’Obama, et de la part d’Obama lui-m\u00eame, pour pousser \u00e0 organiser et \u00e0 coordonner une perspective dont on mesure qu’elle pourrait \u00eatre tr\u00e8s r\u00e9formiste, voire d\u00e9structurante pour le syst\u00e8me. Il est vrai que, durant cette semaine entre le 14 et le 21 d\u00e9cembre sont survenus divers \u00e9v\u00e9nements, notamment les d\u00e9veloppements de l’affaire du plan de sauvetage des trois grand de l’automobile \u00e0 Detroit, et la d\u00e9cision de la Federal Reserve de son taux directeur jusqu’\u00e0 z\u00e9ro, qui ont accru la perception de l’urgence de la crise.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\tMis en ligne le 22 d\u00e9cembre 2008 \u00e0 05H40<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
On trouve, dans la chronique hebdomadaire de Irwin Stelzer, dans le Sunday Times de Londres du 21 d\u00e9cembre, une int\u00e9ressante appr\u00e9ciation de ce que pourrait, de ce que sera? l’administration Obama. (Irwin Stelzer, \u00e9conomiste US vivant au Royaume-Uni, membre \u00e9minent du Hudson Institute, est un important personnage des r\u00e9seaux USA-UK. Per\u00e7u comme un proche de… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3228,3184,6208,5686,7990,5833,3014,2852],"class_list":["post-70418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-crise","tag-fdr","tag-obama","tag-stelzer","tag-structurel","tag-sunday","tag-systeme","tag-times"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70418","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70418"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70418\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70418"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70418"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70418"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}