Provenant des USA, ce billet hebdomadaire de Irwin Stelzer, dont nous avons d\u00e9j\u00e0<\/a> dit l’int\u00e9r\u00eat de ses avis parce qu’il repr\u00e9sente une voix autoris\u00e9e de Washington. (Non pas que nous y p\u00e9chions n\u00e9cessairement le bon sens et la lumi\u00e8re, mais parce qu’il importe de savoir ce qui se dit et se pense \u00e0 Washington.) Vue la date (28 d\u00e9cembre 2008<\/a> dans le Sunday Times<\/em>), le texte a un petit air de bilan. Ce qui nous importe ici est combien le propos d\u00e9couvre, sans doute involontairement, la complexe et diverse facticit\u00e9 de la construction que repr\u00e9sentent les appr\u00e9ciations, \u00e9valuations et donn\u00e9es officielles sur la situation des USA, dans ce cas et particuli\u00e8rement, en mati\u00e8re \u00e9conomique et sociale.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tLe passage sur le ch\u00f4mage est int\u00e9ressant. Voil\u00e0 que Stelzer nous dit que, apr\u00e8s tout, 6,7% de ch\u00f4meurs ce n’est pas si grave. (\u00abThe unemployment rate is 6.7%, not bad by historic standards.<\/em>\u00bb) Et puis il se reprend, et cela donne cette extraordinaire d\u00e9monstration, pour un personnage de ce statut si remarquable dans l’establishment<\/em> washingtonien, qui revient \u00e0 nous dire: Oui, officiellement on dit 6 ,7% de ch\u00f4meurs, mais ce n’est rien d’autre qu’un montage forcen\u00e9 et officiel, et la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 est au moins le double de cela<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abYes, the unemployment rate is relatively low, but that is because millions have dropped out of the labour market after unsuccessfully searching for work, and others have been forced to accept part-time work when they could not find a full-time job. Add those to the workers classified by the Department of Labor as unemployed, and the rate doubles to over 12%. And that doesn’t count those working shorter weeks or taking pay cuts.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tStelzer a commenc\u00e9 par nous donner les motifs de satisfaction du citoyen landa<\/em> dans les USA aujourd’hui. Apr\u00e8s tout, l’essence est moins cher, les marchands bradent leurs marchandises, on peut voyage \u00e0 tr\u00e8s bas prix, quant \u00e0 acqu\u00e9rir une voiture de General Motors votre argent de poche ferait l’affaire Mais l’on d\u00e9couvre vite que c’est de l’ironie grin\u00e7ante, car l’esprit n’est d\u00e9cid\u00e9ment \u00e0 rien de tout cela, et tous ces avantages ne sont que monnaie de singe, faux-masque, perspective d\u00e9form\u00e9e et tromperie courante<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abYes, mortgage rates are low, about 5% for the traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. But almost nobody can get one, as the banks hoard money and do business only with the least risky applicants, or find that they have laid off so many staff that they don’t have enough workers to process applications. Besides, with prices falling faster than at any time since the Great Depression, who wants to buy a house now when it might be available at a lower price in a few months? Most of the mortgage applications are aimed at refinancing existing mortgages at the new lower rates, so the inventory of unsold homes remains at about twice normal levels, and half of the homes that do sell are going for prices that don’t cover the outstanding mortgage.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tD’ailleurs, termine-t-il comme pour nous ass\u00e9ner le coup de gr\u00e2ce, tous les avantages qui viennent d’\u00eatre d\u00e9crits sont d’autant plus monnaie de singe, faux-masque, perspective d\u00e9form\u00e9e et tromperie courante qu’ils n’apparaissent en v\u00e9rit\u00e9 nulle part dans les pratiques courantes de la vie \u00e9conomique, et que, finalement, les Am\u00e9ricains n’y comprennent plus rien \u00abAdding to Americans’ sense of confusion is the gap between what we see and what we are told.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tPuis vient la d\u00e9monstration de notre sens of confusion<\/em> \u00e0 nous, et peut-\u00eatre de celui de Stelzer pour \u00e9crire toutes ces choses, entre ce que Stelzer nous a d\u00e9crit et ce qu’il nous annonce. Car tout s’illumine bient\u00f4t, apr\u00e8s nous avoir d\u00e9crit cette \u00e9trange situation qui n’est pas loin d’\u00eatre catastrophique et d’une confusion extr\u00eame et dans tous les sens<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abFortunately, history suggests that this gloom and confusion shall pass. At the end of the second world war economists were predicting a resumption of the Great Depression: it didn’t happen. Indeed, then as after every recession since, the resilient American economy resumed its growth. Living standards rose; poverty fell; America’s energy-intensive, mechanised agriculture became the breadbasket of the world; the universities overflowed with students optimistic about their futures; the size of houses grew; household drudgery was replaced by energy-driven appliances that liberated women to enter the workforce; personal mobility rose as the real cost of cars fell; longevity increased.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThere’s more, but you get the idea. America is endowed with ample natural resources to sustain rapid rates of growth. It is blessed with an entrepreneurial spirit that has produced successive waves of the creative destruction that allow the economy to shed the old and move on to the new. Its policymakers, far from perfect, have never gone so far as to stamp out risk-taking, initiative and the incentive to work hard while reforming the capitalist system.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbMost of all, our political institutions have been robust enough to survive wars and bitter political differences difficulties such as we faced in the close-run 2000 election. If you doubt that, consider the civility and efficiency with which the current transition from a right-wing president to his left-wing successor is being conducted. Four American presidents, from both parties, will dine at the White House at the invitation of President George Bush, to share their experiences with Barack Obama and to pledge their support should it be needed in a crisis.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tN’est-ce pas un texte exemplaire, apr\u00e8s tout, du sense of confusion<\/em>\u00bb qui touche Stelzer, du gap between what<\/em> [he] see<\/em>[s] and what<\/em> [he is] told<\/em>, lui qui \u00e9voque une situation presque idyllique pour aussit\u00f4t nous d\u00e9montrer qu’elle n’est que tromperie officielle qui ne fait qu’ajouter au d\u00e9sarroi des Am\u00e9ricains, pour poursuivre aussit\u00f4t que l’histoire montre que tout s’arrange et que la situation redevient idyllique, alors que l’histoire qu’il cite ne s’est arrang\u00e9e que gr\u00e2ce aux tromperies officielles, comme ce redressement<\/a> de 1945-1948 pour \u00e9viter le retour de la Grande D\u00e9pression, d\u00fb pour l’essentiel \u00e0 la mise en sc\u00e8ne int\u00e9rieure<\/a> de la mobilisation pour la Guerre froide, et ainsi de suite <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tL’impression est certes de plus en plus que cette tr\u00eave des confiseurs, pendant laquelle les affaires du monde semblent s’arr\u00eater, est propice surtout \u00e0 la r\u00e9alisation des conditions affreuses de confusion qui caract\u00e9risent la situation am\u00e9ricaniste, entre la repr\u00e9sentation qui en est donn\u00e9e et la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 qui continue \u00e0 s’affirmer, de plus en plus puissamment. Et pourtant, non, la situation n’est pas catastrophique; ou bien l’est-elle, apr\u00e8s tout? Aussi Stelzer pr\u00e9f\u00e8re-t-il jeter l’\u00e9ponge et s’en retourner, la semaine prochaine, au sport pr\u00e9f\u00e9r\u00e9 des \u00e9conomistes, qui est simplement la pr\u00e9vision de l’avenir. (\u00abBut the new year is upon us, and the important question now is what it has in store. More on that next week.<\/em>\u00bb)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \tMis en ligne le 29 d\u00e9cembre 2008 \u00e0 15H08<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Provenant des USA, ce billet hebdomadaire de Irwin Stelzer, dont nous avons d\u00e9j\u00e0 dit l’int\u00e9r\u00eat de ses avis parce qu’il repr\u00e9sente une voix autoris\u00e9e de Washington. (Non pas que nous y p\u00e9chions n\u00e9cessairement le bon sens et la lumi\u00e8re, mais parce qu’il importe de savoir ce qui se dit et se pense \u00e0 Washington.) Vue… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3354,8004,3228,5686,5193,610],"class_list":["post-70431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-chomage","tag-confusion","tag-crise","tag-stelzer","tag-tromperie","tag-virtualisme"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70431","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70431"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70431\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70431"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70431"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70431"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}