Nous revenons plus en d\u00e9tails sur la d\u00e9position elle-m\u00eame de l’amiral Dennis C. Blair, le nouveau Director of National Intelligence (DNI) nomm\u00e9 par le pr\u00e9sident Obama. Cette d\u00e9position avait lieu le 12 f\u00e9vrier pour pr\u00e9senter le rapport annuel de la communaut\u00e9 du renseignement US (16 agences et services diff\u00e9rents), dont Blair a la charge de la coordination. Nous avons publi\u00e9 un F&C<\/em>, le 13 f\u00e9vrier<\/a>, sur la publication de ce rapport, sur le rapport lui-m\u00eame et la signification politique qu’il faut lui donner, \u00e0 notre sens.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tC’est une publication de WSWS.org<\/em>, du 14 f\u00e9vrier<\/a>, qui donne de larges extraits s\u00e9lectifs de la d\u00e9position de Blair, qui r\u00e9sument avec nombre de d\u00e9tails le contenu du rapport pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 \u00e0 la commission s\u00e9natoriale sur le renseignement. L’extrait que nous donnons est centr\u00e9 sur l’intervention elle-m\u00eame, car il nous semble que les d\u00e9clarations de Blair valent d’\u00eatre lues en d\u00e9tails.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tOn observera la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence constante aux ann\u00e9es 1920 et 1920, c’est-\u00e0-dire \u00e0 la Grande D\u00e9pression; l’observation que la crise financi\u00e8re et \u00e9conomique est la plus s\u00e9rieuse depuis des d\u00e9cennies, sinon des si\u00e8cles (\u00abthe most serious one in decades, if not in centuries<\/em>\u00bb), ce qui introduit une dimension historique \u00e9tonnamment radicale; la pr\u00e9cision que des troubles politiques s\u00e9rieux peuvent \u00eatre attendus, selon les crises historiques de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence, de un \u00e0 deux ans apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9but de la crise, c’est-\u00e0-dire que nous sommes entr\u00e9s selon cette estimation dans la zone de danger puisque le d\u00e9but de la crise est fix\u00e9 par le DNI au d\u00e9but de 2008; le constat que d\u00e9j\u00e0 au moins un quart des pays du globe ont subi des cons\u00e9quences d\u00e9stabilisantes de basse intensit\u00e9 du fait de la crise, comme des changements de gouvernement. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abThe primary near-term security concern of the United States is the global economic crisis and its geopolitical implications, Blair declared in his opening remarks. He continued: The crisis has been ongoing for over a year, and economists are divided over whether and when we could hit bottom. Some even fear that the recession could further deepen and reach the level of the Great Depression. Of course, all of us recall the dramatic political consequences wrought by the economic turmoil of the 1920s and 1930s in Europe, the instability, and high levels of violent extremism.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbBlair described the ongoing financial and economic meltdown as the most serious one in decades, if not in centuries. Time is probably our greatest threat, he said. The longer it takes for the recovery to begin, the greater the likelihood of serious damage to US strategic interests. The intelligence chief noted that roughly a quarter of the countries in the world have already experienced low-level instability such as government changes because of the current slowdown. He added that the bulk of anti-state d\u00e9monstrations internationally have been seen in Europe and the former Soviet Union.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbBut Blair stressed that the threat that the crisis will produce revolutionary upheavals is global. The financial meltdown, he said, is likely to produce a wave of economic crises in emerging market nations over the next year. He added that much of Latin America, former Soviet Union states and sub-Saharan Africa lack sufficient cash reserves, access to international aid or credit, or other coping mechanism. Noting that economic growth in these regions of the globe had fallen dramatically in recent months, Blair stated, When those growth rates go down, my gut tells me that there are going to be problems coming out of that, and we’re looking for that. He cited \u00ab\u00a0statistical modeling\u00a0\u00bb showing that economic crises increase the risk of regime-threatening instability if they persist over a one to two year period.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbIn another parallel to the 1930s, the US intelligence director pointed to the implications of the crisis for world trade and relations between national capitalist economies. The globally synchronized nature of this slowdown means that countries will not be able to export their way out of this recession, he said. Indeed, policies designed to promote domestic export industries so-called beggar-thy-neighbor policies such as competitive currency devaluations, import tariffs, and\/or export subsidies risk unleashing a wave of destructive protectionism. It was precisely such policies pursued in the 1930s that set the stage for the eruption of the Second World War.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbBlair also raised the damage that the crisis has done to the global credibility of American capitalism, declaring that the widely held perception that excesses in US financial markets and inadequate regulation were responsible has increased criticism about free market policies, which may make it difficult to achieve long-time US objectives. The collapse of Wall Street, he added, has increased questioning of US stewardship of the global economy and the international financial structure.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tWSWS.org<\/em> poursuit en mettant en \u00e9vidence des aspects int\u00e9rieurs potentiels aux USA de ces troubles d\u00e9crits au niveau ext\u00e9rieur, ou bien des aspects int\u00e9rieurs parall\u00e8les, comme nous-m\u00eames remarquions, et qui ne sont pas \u00e9voqu\u00e9s dans la d\u00e9position (ni dans le rapport). Le site WSWS.org<\/em> cite notamment le rapport du Strategic Studies Institute de l’U.S. Army dont il s’\u00e9tait fait l’\u00e9cho, dont nous parlions nous-m\u00eame le 23 d\u00e9cembre 2008<\/a>; on peut \u00e9galement citer le rapport du Joint Forces Command, que nous avons comment\u00e9 le 10 janvier 2009<\/a>, examinant l’hypoth\u00e8se de troubles int\u00e9rieurs US \u00e0 partir d’une extension de l’\u00e9ventuelle d\u00e9stabilisation du Mexique.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \tMis en ligne le 14 f\u00e9vrier 2009 \u00e0 13H32<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Nous revenons plus en d\u00e9tails sur la d\u00e9position elle-m\u00eame de l’amiral Dennis C. Blair, le nouveau Director of National Intelligence (DNI) nomm\u00e9 par le pr\u00e9sident Obama. Cette d\u00e9position avait lieu le 12 f\u00e9vrier pour pr\u00e9senter le rapport annuel de la communaut\u00e9 du renseignement US (16 agences et services diff\u00e9rents), dont Blair a la charge de… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[705,3228,8109,3083,4479,2833,2891,2807,2671],"class_list":["post-70535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-blair","tag-crise","tag-dennis","tag-depression","tag-destabilisation","tag-dni","tag-grande","tag-renseignement","tag-us"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70535","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70535"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70535\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70535"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70535"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70535"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}