{"id":70757,"date":"2009-05-14T12:54:15","date_gmt":"2009-05-14T12:54:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2009\/05\/14\/oncle-sam-qui-rit-oncle-sam-qui-pleure-une-journee-de-la-crise-yo-yo\/"},"modified":"2009-05-14T12:54:15","modified_gmt":"2009-05-14T12:54:15","slug":"oncle-sam-qui-rit-oncle-sam-qui-pleure-une-journee-de-la-crise-yo-yo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2009\/05\/14\/oncle-sam-qui-rit-oncle-sam-qui-pleure-une-journee-de-la-crise-yo-yo\/","title":{"rendered":"Oncle Sam qui rit, Oncle Sam qui pleure: une journ\u00e9e de la crise \u201cyo-yo\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><p>La journ\u00e9e du 13 mai 2009 nous a sembl\u00e9 int\u00e9ressante, c&rsquo;est-\u00e0-dire instructive, d&rsquo;autant plus que l&rsquo;on peut s&rsquo;appuyer pour ce constat sur deux textes d&rsquo;une m\u00eame source, <em>Bloomberg.News<\/em>, source incontestable pour les nouvelles \u00e9conomiques,  et deux textes \u00e9dit\u00e9s \u00e0 six heures d&rsquo;intervalle,  10H46 et 16H18, heures de la c\u00f4te Est (EDT).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tLe premier est donc, chronologiquement, celui de 10H46 ce <a href=\"http:\/\/bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601109&#038;sid=ahkAfsNV1rcQ&#038;refer=home#\" class=\"gen\">13 mai 2009<\/a>. C&rsquo;est Oncle Sam qui rit, parce que, \u00f4 divine surprise qu&rsquo;on pr\u00e9voyait d\u00e9j\u00e0 par avance, voil\u00e0 le Messie,  <em>dito<\/em>, le consommateur am\u00e9ricaniste,  qui recommence \u00e0 faire son devoir de civilisation,  consommer, consommer, consommer Le texte est piment\u00e9 d&rsquo;avis imp\u00e9ratifs et enlev\u00e9s d&rsquo;\u00e9conomistes vous d\u00e9crivant les lendemains qui chantent d\u00e8s aujourd&rsquo;hui, de descriptions exotiques soulignant le cas de telle ou telle h\u00e9ro\u00efque famille de consommateurs qui a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de monter \u00e0 l&rsquo;assaut de l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie pour, selon les consignes des g\u00e9n\u00e9raux Summers, Genthner et Bernanke, prendre la citadelle d&rsquo;assaut et remettre le progr\u00e8s sur ses rails. L&rsquo;impression laiss\u00e9e est irr\u00e9futable, d&rsquo;une reprise qui est d\u00e9j\u00e0 parmi nous.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t(A noter, dans l&rsquo;extrait ci-dessous la pr\u00e9cision donn\u00e9e par les calculs de <em>Bloomberg.News<\/em>, selon laquelle le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral a d\u00e9pens\u00e9, pr\u00eat\u00e9 ou promis, depuis septembre 2008, autour de <strong>$12.800 milliards<\/strong> pour tenter de mettre un terme \u00e0 la r\u00e9cession.)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00ab<em>Brooke and Doug Sterenberg booked a seven-day, $2,800 cruise to the Bahamas on Carnival Corp.&rsquo;s ship the Conquest, with its three-deck-high Twister water slide. It&rsquo;s the family&rsquo;s reward for Doug keeping his job.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>He made it through the first round of layoffs at the Houston unit of bankrupt chemicals maker LyondellBasell Industries AF SCA, said Brooke, a 37-year-old mother of two. We feel like we can&rsquo;t control what&rsquo;s going to happen in the future. No matter what, our family deserves a week away.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>The Sterenbergs are among Americans who are cracking open wallets as the U.S. economy begins to stabilize after the federal government spent, lent or pledged as much as $12.8 trillion to end the longest recession since the Great Depression, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>Consumer confidence rose last month by the most in two years, and the pace of job losses declined. The Standard &#038; Poor&rsquo;s 500 Index climbed 34 percent, as of yesterday, from a low March 9 &#8212; the biggest such move over a similar time span since the 1930s.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>We are seeing what I call good bad reports, said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. How can anyone think that 539,000 lost jobs in April is something good? But it is better than the month before and these are starting to make consumers feel more confident.<\/em> []<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>Fifty-two economists predict personal consumption will start rising in July, according to a Bloomberg survey. Median projections for spending growth in the third quarter increased to 1 percent from 0.7 percent at the end of March. Those interviewed project a gain of 1.5 percent in the final three months, versus 1.1 percent in the earlier survey.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tLe second texte est donc celui de 16H18, toujours de ce m\u00eame <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&#038;sid=aLqc3woGnzWE&#038;refer=home#\" class=\"gen\">13 mai 2009<\/a>. Eh bien, non, les nouvelles sont mauvaises. Avril nous apporte un flot de nouvelles beaucoup plus mauvaises que ce qu&rsquo;on avait pr\u00e9vu, d&rsquo;une fa\u00e7on qualifi\u00e9e d&rsquo;inattendue qui montre bien combien on tient comme \u00e9videntes la mauvaise volont\u00e9 et la tr\u00e8s mauvaise qualit\u00e9 de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9,  une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 pas loin d&rsquo;\u00eatre mise en proc\u00e8s. Les Sterenberg n&rsquo;ont pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 r\u00e9tablir la confiance et peut-\u00eatre la d\u00e9cision de s&rsquo;offrir une croisi\u00e8re pour f\u00eater l&rsquo;excellente nouvelle selon laquelle Doug Sterenberg a toujours un emploi est-elle pr\u00e9matur\u00e9e. Inutile de vous dire qu&rsquo;on trouve les m\u00eames experts imp\u00e9ratifs pour vous dire que les choses ne vont pas si bien qu&rsquo;on pourrait le croire, qu&rsquo;au contraire rien n&rsquo;est fait, que la situation est difficile<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00ab<em>Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in April for a second month, indicating that rising unemployment is prompting consumers to conserve cash. The 0.4 percent decrease followed a revised 1.3 percent drop in March that was larger than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Other reports showed companies continued to cut stockpiles as demand slowed, and climbing oil costs pushed up prices for imported goods.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>Fewer jobs, falling home values and the biggest loss of household wealth on record may limit consumers&rsquo; ability to spend for years, analysts said. Stocks dropped for a third day as the reports indicated any recovery from the worst recession in at least half a century is likely to be subdued.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>It looks like consumers are losing momentum heading into the second quarter and that is a very worrisome development, said Carl Riccadonna, an economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. They have very significant headwinds and number one among them is that the labor market is far from turning the corner.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tOutre la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de la crise,  qui se rapproche selon nous plus de la deuxi\u00e8me version que de la premi\u00e8re, bien entendu,  il ne nous para\u00eet pas que cette sorte de jeu de yo-yo quotidien dans les nouvelles, les analyses, les pr\u00e9visions, soient de nature \u00e0 r\u00e9tablir un peu de stabilit\u00e9 dans les psychologies, qui pourrait \u00eatre d&rsquo;une aide pr\u00e9cieuse pour la r\u00e9sorption de la crise selon leurs voeux. Au contraire, cette valse de l&rsquo;information, entre les pressions insistantes de l&rsquo;offensive virtualiste du tout va tr\u00e8s bien madame la marquise et la r\u00e9sistance forcen\u00e9e et contre-offensive de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9, contribue \u00e0 accentuer d&rsquo;une fa\u00e7on g\u00e9n\u00e9rale un \u00e9tat d&rsquo;esprit de parano\u00efa, qui fait de chaque jour, de chaque nouvelle pr\u00e9vision, de chaque nouvelle orientation, l&rsquo;objet d&#8217;emportements \u00e9chevel\u00e9s, \u00e9videmment en sens contraires. Au-del\u00e0 de la question de la crise \u00e9conomique, ce qu&rsquo;elle est et ce qu&rsquo;elle n&rsquo;est pas, il y a manifestement l&rsquo;accroissement d&rsquo;une instabilit\u00e9 g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de la psychologie qui constitue, en soi, un aspect tr\u00e8s particulier de la situation,  bref, comme une crise dans la crise, qui affecte la population et la direction US en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral. Cette situation est \u00e9videmment impos\u00e9e par la pouss\u00e9e massive de cette direction pour forcer la situation \u00e0 une am\u00e9lioration, en tentant de d\u00e9clencher des r\u00e9flexes psychologiques de relance de la consommation. L&rsquo;incontestable <em>deus ex machina<\/em> de la chose, aux USA, reste la consommation.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><p>\tMis en ligne le 14 mai 2009 \u00e0 12H53<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La journ\u00e9e du 13 mai 2009 nous a sembl\u00e9 int\u00e9ressante, c&rsquo;est-\u00e0-dire instructive, d&rsquo;autant plus que l&rsquo;on peut s&rsquo;appuyer pour ce constat sur deux textes d&rsquo;une m\u00eame source, Bloomberg.News, source incontestable pour les nouvelles \u00e9conomiques, et deux textes \u00e9dit\u00e9s \u00e0 six heures d&rsquo;intervalle, 10H46 et 16H18, heures de la c\u00f4te Est (EDT). Le premier est donc,&hellip;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[6683,6152,3228,8324,3099,8325,610,8323],"class_list":["post-70757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-bloomberg","tag-consommation","tag-crise","tag-oncle","tag-psychologie","tag-sam","tag-virtualisme","tag-yo-yo"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70757\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}