{"id":70775,"date":"2009-05-22T15:15:43","date_gmt":"2009-05-22T15:15:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2009\/05\/22\/black-shoots-of-summer-les-anglo-saxons-et-le-aaa-qui-chancelle\/"},"modified":"2009-05-22T15:15:43","modified_gmt":"2009-05-22T15:15:43","slug":"black-shoots-of-summer-les-anglo-saxons-et-le-aaa-qui-chancelle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2009\/05\/22\/black-shoots-of-summer-les-anglo-saxons-et-le-aaa-qui-chancelle\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cBlack shoots of summer<\/em>\u201d? Les Anglo-Saxons et le AAA qui chancelle"},"content":{"rendered":"

Coup sur coup viennent les nouvelles que les deux grands pays anglo-saxons, inspirateurs du mod\u00e8le anglo-saxon (comme il se doit) et du Rest Of the World<\/em>, sont sur le point, ou dans tous les cas menac\u00e9s de perdre leur classement prestigieux AAA, indiquant le niveau de solvabilit\u00e9 de ces pays, de leurs Etats, ou soi-disant Etats. Ces notations sont \u00e0 la fois v\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9es et contest\u00e9es; v\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9es parce qu’elles font partie, comme autant d’indications faussaires \u00e9videmment imp\u00e9ratives, du syst\u00e8me faussaire qui, de la Federal Reserve aux r\u00e9unions de Davos, nous a entretenus des le\u00e7ons de morale que nous m\u00e9ritons pendant quelques ann\u00e9es, voire entre une et deux d\u00e9cennies; contest\u00e9es parce que, faussaires comme elles sont, elles ont \u00e9tabli un empire de r\u00e9putations model\u00e9es selon les int\u00e9r\u00eats du moment, mais toujours \u00e0 consonance anglo-saxonne Il reste donc \u00e0 conclure que ces cotations, faites d’une fa\u00e7on faussaire \u00e0 l’avantage du syst\u00e8me et des deux pays anglo-saxons, si elles apparaissent d\u00e9sormais comme devant d\u00e9valuer la valeur et de r\u00e9putation de ces deux pays, traduisent \u00e9videmment un \u00e9tat d’autant plus catastrophique de ces deux m\u00eames pays pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment. C’est le cas, le d\u00e9ficit et l’endettement US et UK \u00e9tant absolument himalayesques.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tLes Am\u00e9ricains reconnaissent implicitement la possibilit\u00e9 d’\u00eatre d\u00e9cot\u00e9s, notamment selon une d\u00e9p\u00eache Bloomberg.News<\/em> du 22 mai 2009<\/a>, ouvrant sur une interview assez g\u00e9missante de Timothy Geithner, entrecoup\u00e9s de rappels que tout ne va pas si mal malgr\u00e9 tout (green shoots<\/em>) suivis de remarques que les choses sont encore tr\u00e8s, tr\u00e8s difficiles (black shoots<\/em>, si l’on veut). Pour rappel, Bloomberg.News<\/em> \u00e9value \u00e0 $12.800 milliards les engagements du gouvernements US, en dons, subventions, pr\u00eats, promesses, etc., euh, depuis septembre 2008 (plan Paulson) <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abTreasury Secretary Timothy Geithner committed to cutting the budget deficit as concern about deteriorating U.S. creditworthiness deepened, and ascribed a sell-off in Treasuries to prospects for an economic recovery. It’s very important that this Congress and this president put in place policies that will bring those deficits down to a sustainable level over the medium term, Geithner said in an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday. He added that the target is reducing the gap to about 3 percent of gross domestic product, from a projected 12.9 percent this year.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe dollar extended declines today after Treasuries and American stocks slumped on concern the U.S. government’s debt rating may at some point be lowered. Bill Gross, the co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said the U.S. eventually will lose its AAA grade.<\/em> [] Gross said in an interview yesterday on Bloomberg Television that while a U.S. sovereign rating cut is certainly nothing that’s going to happen overnight, financial markets are beginning to anticipate the possibility.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tLes Britanniques commentent les menaces de la perte de la cotation AAA de leur pays, d\u00e9j\u00e0 envisag\u00e9e de fa\u00e7on effective selon le Standard & Poor<\/em>. Voici la nouvelle brute pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e par The Independent<\/em> du 22 mai 2009<\/a>. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abIn a humiliating move, Britain has been relegated from the premier league of international economies by one of the world’s leading credit agencies.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbStandard & Poor’s’ concerns about government borrowing and the potential cost of rescuing the UK’s rickety banking system as much as \u00a3145bn are so serious that the agency has taken the unprecedented step of downgrading the creditworthiness of the British Government. The UK has lost its cherished AAA rating with a stable Outlook, the highest possible, to a triple-A rating with a negative Outlook. Worse could follow. The agency said that UK public finances are deteriorating rapidly and warned about a further downgrade: The rating could be lowered if we conclude that, following the election, the next government’s fiscal consolidation plans are unlikely to put the UK debt burden on a secure downward trajectory over the medium term.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbWhile only one word of the formal S&P rating has been altered, the implications of the change could hardly be more momentous. Sterling, the gilts market and the FTSE 100 index all fell sharply on the news, which came shortly after the Office for National Statistics announced the latest figures for government borrowing \u00a385bn in April alone, four times the level this time last year and described by one City analyst as awful.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tCertains commentateurs britanniques s’emploient \u00e0 relativiser, sinon \u00e0 minimiser la perspective de la perte de l’indice AAA. Dans ce cas, la chose retrouve tout son caract\u00e8re empirique, th\u00e9orique ou bien symbolique. Le 22 mai 2009<\/a>, dans The Independent<\/em>, Hamish McRae choisit donc de relativiser la question du AAA, mais, par contre, ne cache pas la catastrophique situation du d\u00e9ficit et de l’endettement (britannique, indeed<\/em>). Puis il relativise aussit\u00f4t, cette fois de venimeuse et britannique fa\u00e7on, en observant que, pour les USA, c’est pire encore. Signe de la gravit\u00e9 des situations, on ne se fait plus de cadeaux de commentaires, m\u00eame entre cousins avec des relations si sp\u00e9ciales.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abDon’t worry about Britain losing its AAA credit rating, but do worry about the rise in country debt here and indeed in pretty much every developed country in the world.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThere is a cheap reply to the possibility that the UK may be downgraded following the n\u00e9gative outlook registered by the S&P ratings agency. It is that Lehman Brothers had a AAA rating until a few weeks before it collapsed. There is a slightly more thoughtful response which is to note that the reason for the negative outlook is that UK debt may reach 100 per cent of GDP unless we take action. But the fiscal position of the US looks even worse, for on present trends they may go well above that. So will it lose its AAA rating too?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbRatings still matter a bit despite the humiliation of the agencies, though I suspect they will matter less and less as investors will increasingly rely on their own research about the likelihood that debts will be met. And of course it is embarrassing. But the real significance will, I think, be that the markets will focus much more attention on the long-term fiscal position of different counties and charge a significant premium for political risk.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbAt the moment, country risk assessment is hopelessly crude. A couple of years back Ireland, Italy and Greece could borrow at almost the same cost as Germany. Now they have to pay much more. While the markets could be forgiven for missing the scale of Ireland’s problems, the weak position of Greece and Italy should surely have been evident. Or to take another example, the US had safe haven status until recently, despite the inherent weaknesses in its fiscal position. Now that is just starting to be questioned expect it to be questioned more and more.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tAttachons-nous au dernier exemple, cit\u00e9 comme par inadvertance par McRae, mais qui a une importance politique \u00e9vidente : \u00ab[T]he US had safe haven status until recently<\/em> [.] Now that is just starting to be questioned expect it to be questioned more and more.<\/em>\u00bb Voil\u00e0, en passant, une mesure de la perte de puissance des USA; l’inconcevable et impensable d’il y a quelques mois encore, que les USA fussent trait\u00e9s comme un vulgaire p\u00e9quenot qui a des comptes \u00e0 rendre pour son d\u00e9ficit et sa dette, qui devient non seulement concevable mais de plus en plus probable, sinon acquis. Remarque importante, et la r\u00e9sonnance politique consid\u00e9rable.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tIls ont para\u00eet-il sauv\u00e9 leurs monstres financiers, reste \u00e0 voir pour combien de temps, mais ils commencent \u00e0 passer \u00e0 la caisse. Le sauvetage largement bidouill\u00e9 selon les murs courantes des attributs priv\u00e9s et pourris de leur puissance financi\u00e8re leur co\u00fbtera-t-il leur statut de puissance? Ont-ils jou\u00e9 \u00e0 fond la finance pour perdre la mise sur la case politique? La partie est engag\u00e9e Les green shoots<\/em> devenant black shoots<\/em>, la crise qui a soi disant pass\u00e9 le pire, ne l’aurait fait finalement que pour la premi\u00e8re phase, pour d\u00e9boucher sur un \u00e9largissement de la structure crisique, pour passer au stade sup\u00e9rieur. Processus de contraction-\u00e9largissement de la crise, avec l’\u00e9largissement vers les structures politiques et fondamentales des ensembles anglo-saxons mises en place pour la domination du monde par le biais de la finance; le reflux vient par la finance et commence \u00e0 d\u00e9border vers les structures. Affaire \u00e0 suivre, n’est-il pas?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tMis en ligne le 22 mai 2009 \u00e0 15H18<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Coup sur coup viennent les nouvelles que les deux grands pays anglo-saxons, inspirateurs du mod\u00e8le anglo-saxon (comme il se doit) et du Rest Of the World, sont sur le point, ou dans tous les cas menac\u00e9s de perdre leur classement prestigieux AAA, indiquant le niveau de solvabilit\u00e9 de ces pays, de leurs Etats, ou soi-disant… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3790,3127,8341,6812,8342,8126,7218],"class_list":["post-70775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-aaa","tag-budget","tag-cotations","tag-deficit","tag-dettes","tag-geithner","tag-mcrae"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70775","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70775"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70775\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}