Cette conclusion, dans notre titre, r\u00e9sume ce que nous pensons \u00eatre la substance d’un article de Briden Maddox du Times<\/em>, publi\u00e9 le 7 juillet 2009<\/a> \u00e0 l’occasion du sommet Russie-USA. L’originalit\u00e9 de la chose est que cela concerne l’\u00e9conomie de la Russie, en pleine crise comme tout le monde, mais qui r\u00e9sisterait assez bien et s’en rel\u00e8verait fort bien, selon un rapport de la Banque Mondiale. De grands compliments sont adress\u00e9s aux dirigeants russes \u00e0 propos de la fa\u00e7on dont ils ont r\u00e9agi. Tout cela fait une sorte de surprise de la part du Times<\/em> de Londres, dont la russophobie agressive de ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es est un mod\u00e8le du genre quasiment ind\u00e9passable et ind\u00e9pass\u00e9.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tNotre \u00e9tonnement par cons\u00e9quent, et notre question : pourquoi ce soudain changement de ton? Mais, d’abord, les pi\u00e8ces du d\u00e9lit. Apr\u00e8s un rapide rappel de la situation russe, o\u00f9 Maddox trouve, \u00f4 surprise, \u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 des habituelles faiblesses quelques \u00e9l\u00e9ments de puissance, on encha\u00eene<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abThe element that might change this calculation is the Russian leaders’ recent skilful management of the economy. It not only points to surefootedness in economic management, which their rhetoric has not often suggested. It offers hope that Russia may find its way out of its current sour resentment, and autocratic rule, and into a more stable future.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbA World Bank report last month spelt out the unexpected upside to Russia’s otherwise unsurprising suffering during the crisis. Yes, there has been plenty of damage. Real gross domestic product is expected to shrink by about 7.9 per cent this year (compared with a global fall in output of 2.9 per cent). That is a big shock after a decade of high growth, driven by high oil and gas prices. The stock market lost two thirds of its value in the five months to November 2008.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbUnemployment could now rise to 13 per cent and poverty to 17.4 per cent by the end of the year, the bank warned, noting that the middle class would also shrink by a tenth, or more than six million people, to just over half the population.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbHowever, the bank, which called the Government’s response swift, co-ordinated, and comprehensive, noted that Russia’s leaders had moved quickly to cut spending as the oil price fell (including pushing through an aggressive rethinking of the military). They had arranged a large stimulus, and had responded to the plunge in foreign reserves (figures yesterday showed a net capital inflow of $7.2 billion in the second quarter of 2009, after $35 billion flowed out in the first quarter). The worst effects of the crisis were perhaps past, the bank suggested. If a huge if Russia took the chance to reform old industries, and made them more competitive, then it could come out of the crisis with a more modern, diversified economy.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThere are a few slight signs that Russia’s leaders might seize that chance, such as the overhaul of the military (arms, and rules for conscription). Alternatively, they will persist with their technique of blaming others for their problems, and focusing on external threats, not obstacles at home.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbPresident Obama’s quest of trying to find a new deal to cut stockpiles of nuclear missiles is an honourable one. But its success will depend on whether Russia can be persuaded out of the mindset in which the expansion and success of the European Union and Nato are a threat. The US has had much less success with Russia than with China in persuading it of the value of becoming part of international organisations and laws. Not much in Putin’s or Medvedev’s recent behaviour suggests that they are that way inclined.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbAll the same, the weakness of modern Russia, clutching the few great prizes of its recent past, in the form of missiles and oil wells while the rest lies in tatters, is one point of leverage. So is the Russian leaders’ astute reaction to the crisis, which they dubbed the failure of capitalism. That shows that they can set ideology aside and take quick steps in the country’s interest. That can only be a hopeful sign for Russia’s chances of becoming a less fearful and more modern state.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tAimable enthousiasme contenu, \u00e0 la britannique, pour la Russie. Le Times<\/em> est-il en train de se convertir, \u00e0 l’heure des amabilit\u00e9s Obama-Medvedev-Poutine? Que nenni<\/em>, c’est plut\u00f4t la Russie qui est train de se convertir Lorsqu’on lit le dernier paragraphe cit\u00e9 l\u00e0-dessus, eh bien l’on s’en convainc. En effet, c’est bien la r\u00e9action avis\u00e9e des dirigeants russes (\u00abthe Russian leaders’ astute reaction to the crisis<\/em>\u00bb) qui donne de si bons r\u00e9sultats; cette crise, justement, qu’ils attribuaient \u00e0 l’\u00e9chec du capitalisme (\u00abto the crisis, which they dubbed the failure of capitalism<\/em>\u00bb); et voil\u00e0 qu’ils en viennent \u00e0 bout, et s’ils en viennent \u00e0 bout c’est bien parce qu’ils ont mis de c\u00f4t\u00e9 leur penchants id\u00e9ologiques, qui \u00e9tait justement dans ce cas d’attribuer la crise \u00e0 l’\u00e9chec du capitalisme (\u00abThat shows that they can set ideology aside and take quick steps in the country’s interest<\/em>\u00bb); par cons\u00e9quent, puisqu’ils sont convertis au capitalisme, comme montre leur action si efficace, tous les espoirs s’ouvrent \u00e0 eux de devenir un Etat moins craintif et moderne, comme le sont les pays anglo-saxons, remarquablement exempts ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es de toute obsession de peur agressive, \u00e0 l’instar de leurs diverses mobilisations s\u00e9curitaires et exp\u00e9ditions guerri\u00e8res et pr\u00e9ventives (\u00ab That can only be a hopeful sign for Russia’s chances of becoming a less fearful and more modern state<\/em>\u00bb).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tD’ailleurs, c’est l’alternative qui leur reste: continuer \u00e0 agir avec efficacit\u00e9, c’est-\u00e0-dire en devenant de plus en plus capitalistes, ou bien retomber dans les t\u00e9n\u00e8bres ext\u00e9rieurs de leur plainte constante qu’on leur en veut \u00e0 l’ext\u00e9rieur, alors que c’est tellement faux. (\u00abThere are a few slight signs that Russia’s leaders might seize that chance, such as the overhaul of the military (arms, and rules for conscription). Alternatively, they will persist with their technique of blaming others for their problems, and focusing on external threats, not obstacles at home.<\/em>\u00bb) La marche triomphale devra d’ailleurs se renforcer avec la prescription que la Russie devra enfin se convaincre que tout le reste, notamment l’expansion de l’OTAN, de l’UE, les anti-missiles, les rodotomontades de Shalikachvili et tout le toutim, tout cela est dans son int\u00e9r\u00eat et renforce bien entendu sa s\u00e9curit\u00e9, sa prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9, etc. C’est simple, le succ\u00e8s d’Obama ne d\u00e9pend certainement pas d’une r\u00e9duction des armes nucl\u00e9aires mais bien de convaincre les Russes, justement, que tout cela, l’OTAN partout autour d’eux, l’UE qui leur fait la le\u00e7on, le BMDE et ainsi de suite, tout cela est vraiment dans-leur-int\u00e9r\u00eat! (\u00abPresident Obama’s quest of trying to find a new deal to cut stockpiles of nuclear missiles is an honourable one. But its success will depend on whether Russia can be persuaded out of the mindset in which the expansion and success of the European Union and Nato are a threat.<\/em>\u00bb)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tQuel fascinant exercice sont capables de mener les intellects britanniques quand ils s’y mettent. La crise gronde partout, le capitalisme s’effondre, la City<\/em> re\u00e7oit des \u00a3milliards pour ne pas couler, Brown annonce des restrictions budg\u00e9taires \u00e0 crever, l’OTAN est humili\u00e9 en G\u00e9orgie et m\u00e8ne la guerre la plus absurde possible en Afghanistan, les USA coulent sous les $trillions perdus<\/a> de la Fed<\/em> et retrouv\u00e9s \u00e0 Wall Street, et s’avan\u00e7ant gaillardement vers les 20% de ch\u00f4mage, et le mod\u00e8le est plus que jamais triomphant ! Car c’est en le suivant que la Russie contr\u00f4le fort bien sa crise, parce que Medvedev-Poutin ont enfin d\u00e9cid\u00e9 d’embrasser le capitalisme. D’ailleurs, voyez les Chinois, eux au moins ont compris<\/a> (\u00abThe US has had much less success with Russia than with China in persuading it of the value of becoming part of international organisations and laws.<\/em>\u00bb)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n