{"id":70959,"date":"2009-08-04T07:02:42","date_gmt":"2009-08-04T07:02:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2009\/08\/04\/le-club-du-social-silence-et-la-bombe-a-hydrogene-de-la-crise\/"},"modified":"2009-08-04T07:02:42","modified_gmt":"2009-08-04T07:02:42","slug":"le-club-du-social-silence-et-la-bombe-a-hydrogene-de-la-crise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2009\/08\/04\/le-club-du-social-silence-et-la-bombe-a-hydrogene-de-la-crise\/","title":{"rendered":"Le club du \u201c<em>social silence<\/em>\u201d et la bombe \u00e0 hydrog\u00e8ne de la crise"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><p><em>The Independent<\/em> a demand\u00e9 au consultant en questions p\u00e9troli\u00e8res Jeremy Leggett d&rsquo;accompagner l&rsquo;article qu&rsquo;il publie ce <a href=\"http:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/science\/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html\" class=\"gen\">3 ao\u00fbt 2009<\/a>, sur la question de la crise p\u00e9troli\u00e8re. (Voir notre commentaire sur cette question, ce <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dedefensa.org\/article-encercle_par_les_crises_04_08_2009.html\" class=\"gen\">4 ao\u00fbt 2009<\/a>, dans notre rubrique <em>F&#038;C<\/em>.)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tL&rsquo;id\u00e9e de Leggett est assez simple: une crise massive du p\u00e9trole est en train d&rsquo;arriver, aussi grave que la crise financi\u00e8re, et tout le monde (dans les milieux p\u00e9troliers) le sait, et personne ne fait rien. Pourquoi? Au fait, note Leggett, il y a une situation qui pr\u00e9sente certaines similitudes avec celle de la crise financi\u00e8re. Les banquiers ont conscience de la nature de la crise, qui concerne des vices fondamentaux du syst\u00e8me, et ils ne font rien pour changer ce syst\u00e8me. Pourquoi? (Bis)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tVoici la r\u00e9ponse de Leggett. Elle se nomme <em>social silence<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00ab<em>My own view of the state of play is that the recession might have bought us a little time, but has deepened the crisis beyond. The central problem is that the underinvestment in the oil industry today will play out as a tighter crunch in the middle of the next decade. It takes an average of six and a half years from finding an oil field to bringing it onstream and, in the rare case of giant fields, often more than 10 years. Why haven&rsquo;t more people in government, and the oil industry itself, seen this particular crisis coming? Why aren&rsquo;t they acting proactively to soften the blow?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>The same question can be asked, with hindsight, of the bonus cultists who gave us the credit crunch, and their institutional fans. Gillian Tett of the Financial Times, a trained anthropologist, describes in her recent book the effort made by the banking elite at ideological domination ahead of the financial crash. Elites do this to maintain power, she explains. They decide what is talked about and what is not. There was a major social silence around the epidemic growth of derivatives.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\t\u00bb<em>This is exactly what I see going on among my old friends in the oil industry when it comes to weighing their assets. And their dysfunctional culture extends right into Whitehall, which is asleep on this issue. Civil servants will barely engage with the UK industry task-force.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tLa th\u00e8se du club du <em>social silence<\/em> est tout \u00e0 fait acceptable, dans tous les cas elle est certainement \u00e0 consid\u00e9rer comme une possible \u00e9vidence du comportement des dirigeants des mondes impliqu\u00e9s. Elle signifie le refus de reconna\u00eetre la gravit\u00e9 structurelle (syst\u00e9mique) de la crise, non par conviction \u00e0 propos du syst\u00e8me, non par croyance dans la vertu des th\u00e9ories sur lesquelles le syst\u00e8me repose, mais plus simplement pour permettre la conservation du pouvoir apr\u00e8s la crise. (A condition qu&rsquo;il y ait un apr\u00e8s \u00e0 quelque chose dans les cas indiqu\u00e9s.)  <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tCette th\u00e8se est int\u00e9ressante, au moins pour deux aspects. D&rsquo;une part, elle nous confirme le niveau de conscience de leurs responsabilit\u00e9s sociales et \u00e9conomistes des banquiers regroup\u00e9s en une caste qui ne peut plus \u00eatre cens\u00e9e repr\u00e9senter une quelconque activit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re et \u00e9conomique avec les vertus d&rsquo;initiative qui vont avec, mais effectivement une caste repli\u00e9e sur ses int\u00e9r\u00eats et sur ses privil\u00e8ges, sans autre dessein de les maintenir. D&rsquo;autre part, la th\u00e8se semble \u00e9carter la question de la croyance dans le syst\u00e8me, cette conviction qui repr\u00e9sente en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral une grande force, m\u00eame s&rsquo;il s&rsquo;agit d&rsquo;une force au service d&rsquo;une analyse fauss\u00e9e et infond\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>\tCes constats conduisent \u00e0 des observations particuli\u00e8rement pessimistes, sinon surr\u00e9alistes, concernant, non seulement l&rsquo;\u00e9tat du syst\u00e8me mais \u00e9galement la puissance des convictions psychologiques qui le soutiennent. On pourrait ne plus \u00eatre loin, peut-\u00eatre y sommes-nous pratiquement, d&rsquo;une situation o\u00f9 plus personne, dans la direction du syst\u00e8me, ne croit \u00e0 la moindre vertu d&rsquo;un syst\u00e8me que tout le monde continue \u00e0 d\u00e9fendre simplement pour la protection des int\u00e9r\u00eats particuliers. Ce serait alors compl\u00e8tement la situation de l&rsquo;URSS avant son effondrement, ou plut\u00f4t son \u00e9vaporation des ann\u00e9es 1987-1991.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><p>\tMis en ligne le 4 ao\u00fbt 2009 \u00e0 06H58<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Independent a demand\u00e9 au consultant en questions p\u00e9troli\u00e8res Jeremy Leggett d&rsquo;accompagner l&rsquo;article qu&rsquo;il publie ce 3 ao\u00fbt 2009, sur la question de la crise p\u00e9troli\u00e8re. (Voir notre commentaire sur cette question, ce 4 ao\u00fbt 2009, dans notre rubrique F&#038;C.) L&rsquo;id\u00e9e de Leggett est assez simple: une crise massive du p\u00e9trole est en train d&rsquo;arriver,&hellip;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[8528,8527,7911,5875,8526,3600,3769,3014,963],"class_list":["post-70959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-banquiers","tag-caste","tag-conviction","tag-ideologie","tag-leggett","tag-petrole","tag-pouvoir","tag-systeme","tag-urss"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70959","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70959"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70959\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70959"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70959"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70959"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}