World Tribune<\/em>, en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral tr\u00e8s proche des th\u00e8ses isra\u00e9liennes.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tCopley fait une longue analyse de strat\u00e9gie nucl\u00e9aire et de strat\u00e9gie tout court tendant \u00e0 montrer qu’une attaque serait pr\u00e9judiciable \u00e0 toutes les parties. S’il note que cela n’emp\u00eacherait peut-\u00eatre pas cette attaque (\u00abOf course, it is entirely possible that the war hysteria could drive political actions which are, in fact, irrational.<\/em>\u00bb), Copley juge en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral que les parties impliqu\u00e9es, y compris les Isra\u00e9liens et les Am\u00e9ricains, y compris les Iraniens eux-m\u00eames, sont conscients des aspects catastrophique d’une attaque qui se prolongerait en une guerre incontr\u00f4lable. Il termine en proposant la seule alternative acceptable selon lui<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00abIsrael’s best policy, then, is to deter irrational Iranian actions which could spill over into a full Iranian missile (and therefore possibly nuclear) attack, even bearing in mind the limited number of heavy strategic missiles of the Shahab-3 type available to Iran. Thus, even Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has been constrained to undertaking a saber-rattling campaign while trying to bolster the credibility of Iran to operate militarily at a regional strategic level.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbEqually, the U.S. is in no position to sustain a new and wider conflict environment, even supporting a potential Israeli military strike at Iran. Washington has run out of political will, political allies, and, finally, it has run out of ordnance. Its arsenal is in grave need of restocking, and there is little chance for such budgetary surges in the present economic and political environment to rebuild its weapons, let alone its manpower.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbAnd if Iran was to initiate such a conflict, it would seriously jeopardize the framework for energy and political influence which Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have been striving to compile from Central Asia through the Caucasus to the Middle East and Europe. So there are serious constraints against Iran, as well.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbBeneath all of this hyperbole-ridden sky there are U.S.- and UK-led groups which favor the dismemberment of Iran as a means of resolving the issue. However, again with the long-term view, any further reduction of the historical Persian landmass which has already shrunk by two-thirds over the past two centuries would only benefit the strategic growth of Russia and the PRC, and possibly Turkey (although there are many other factors which gather around Turkey).<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbLittle consideration has been given to mounting a classic psychological strategy to support the Iranian people in transforming the situation in Iran while keeping the state intact. Indeed, so politically correct has the U.S. Defense Dept. become that the psychological warfare function of the U.S. Army and Air Force as tactical as these capabilities have been has now become re-worded as information management and information dominance (specifically, military information support and\/to operations [MISO]), etc.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThe race, then, with the most chance of benefiting the great powers, the Iranian and Israeli people, and the region, would be for a bloodless victory of the type so favored by Sun-tzu, based around a popular and modernist approach to reshaping the governance of Iran. The strategic competition, then, would be between foreign sponsors to shape the outcome of such a bloodless revolution to the best interests of the sponsoring power.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbBut this, by its nature a covert and deniable process, lacks appeal in the technology-driven mindsets of the cyber-geeks who now dominate Western policy processes. Even absent their technology fixation, the corridors of power in the West do not resound to the footsteps of historians and grand strategists.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\n
dedefensa.org<\/em><\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Pourquoi un conflit avec l’Iran ne devrait pas avoir lieu Le 5 juillet 2010, sur le site World Tribune, il y a eu une longue analyse de Gregory R. Copley, de Global Information System, pour argumenter contre une attaque de l’Iran. Deux choses sont \u00e0 signaler : Copley est un adversaire de l’Iran et du… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[2870,9828,2773,3004,4936,3986],"class_list":["post-72078","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ouverture-libre","tag-attaque","tag-copley","tag-iran","tag-nucleaire","tag-tribune","tag-world"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72078","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72078"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72078\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72078"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72078"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72078"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}