{"id":72079,"date":"2010-07-13T08:42:59","date_gmt":"2010-07-13T08:42:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2010\/07\/13\/pourquoi-lattaque-contre-liran-aura-lieu\/"},"modified":"2010-07-13T08:42:59","modified_gmt":"2010-07-13T08:42:59","slug":"pourquoi-lattaque-contre-liran-aura-lieu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2010\/07\/13\/pourquoi-lattaque-contre-liran-aura-lieu\/","title":{"rendered":"Pourquoi l’attaque contre l’Iran aura lieu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pourquoi l’attaque contre l’Iran aura lieu<\/h4>\n

Dans un commentaire pour UPI, le 12 juillet 2010<\/a>, Arnaud de Borchgrave explique pourquoi il lui para\u00eet probable qu’une attaque contre l’Iran aura lieu.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tD’abord, Borchgrave explique que les sanctions ne peuvent marcher parce qu’elles n’emp\u00eacheront pas l’Iran d’avoir l’essentiel, qui est le p\u00e9trole raffin\u00e9 dont il a besoin (40% de son p\u00e9trole raffin\u00e9 est export\u00e9). Cela, \u00e0 gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l’Irak, o\u00f9 la situation politique est chaotique, avec l’impossibilit\u00e9 de former un gouvernement stable, et par cons\u00e9quent l’Irak \u00e9tant aujourd’hui sans direction assur\u00e9e et avec une influence US en d\u00e9clin sinon en retraite, au profit de l’influence de l’Iran.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abThere is no better illustration of the futility of the $1 trillion Iraq war than news photos of a long line of gasoline tankers lined up bumper to bumper as they leave Iraq to enter Iran.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe U.N. Security Council decision to strengthen economic measures against Iran and U.S. President Barack Obama signing into law draconian new legislative sanctions against Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions, leave Iraq’s defeated government unable to act.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe Iraq Study Group, led by Lee Hamilton, the prominent Democrat who heads the Woodrow Wilson International Center, and James Baker, whose Institute for Public Policy is at Houston’s Rice University, warned in 2006 that Iran, now rid of erstwhile enemy Saddam Hussein, was already wielding more influence in Iraq than the United States.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe only sanction that would seriously undermine the mullah’s military regime is a severe shortage of gasoline. Iran is awash in oil but lacks refining capacity and has to import 60 percent of its gasoline. A lack of governance in Baghdad has allowed Iran to strike a sub-rosa deal for gasoline imports.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tBorchgrave rel\u00e8ve une mont\u00e9e acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e du parti de la guerre, notamment dans les pays arabes mod\u00e9r\u00e9s, c’est-\u00e0-dire align\u00e9s sur les USA et, implicitement, dans les grandes affaires strat\u00e9giques, sur Isra\u00ebl. Borchgrave cite le discours<\/a> de l’ambassadeur des EAU \u00e0 Aspen, dans le Colorado. Il note qu’\u00e0 Washington \u00e9galement, certains milieux d’habitude plus mod\u00e9r\u00e9s \u00e9voluent en faveur de la guerre. Enfin, argument moral imparable, il y a le fait que le pr\u00e9sident Obama, devant la d\u00e9route persistante en Irak et la d\u00e9b\u00e2cle en Afghanistan, pourrait juger une troisi\u00e8me guerre excellente pour le parti d\u00e9mocrate aux \u00e9lections de novembre prochain.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abA former Arab leader, in close touch with current leaders, speaking privately not for attribution, told this reporter July 6, All the Middle Eastern and gulf leaders now want Iran taken out of the nuclear arms business and they all know sanctions won’t work.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbIn a joint op-ed, former U.S. Sen. Chuck Robb, D-Va., and retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Chuck Wald, the air commander in the opening stages of Operation Enduring Freedom’ in October 2001, say the time is now to credibly prepare for a U.S. military strike. Sanctions can be effective only if coupled with open preparation for the military option as a last resort publicly playing down potential military options has weakened our leverage with Tehran, making a peaceful resolution less likely.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe temptation for Obama to double down on Iran will grow rapidly as he concludes that Afghanistan will remain a festering sore as far as anyone can peer into a murky future, hardly a recipe for success at the polls in November. With a war in Afghanistan, which is bound to get worse, and a military theater in Iraq replete with sectarian violence, the bombing of Iran may give Obama a three-front war and a chance to retain both houses of Congress.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\n

dedefensa.org<\/em><\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pourquoi l’attaque contre l’Iran aura lieu Dans un commentaire pour UPI, le 12 juillet 2010, Arnaud de Borchgrave explique pourquoi il lui para\u00eet probable qu’une attaque contre l’Iran aura lieu. D’abord, Borchgrave explique que les sanctions ne peuvent marcher parce qu’elles n’emp\u00eacheront pas l’Iran d’avoir l’essentiel, qui est le p\u00e9trole raffin\u00e9 dont il a besoin… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[2870,1257,5134,4141,2773,6208],"class_list":["post-72079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ouverture-libre","tag-attaque","tag-borchgrave","tag-eau","tag-elections","tag-iran","tag-obama"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72079","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72079"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72079\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72079"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72079"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72079"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}