{"id":72235,"date":"2010-09-02T09:59:40","date_gmt":"2010-09-02T09:59:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2010\/09\/02\/le-peak-oil-est-de-retour\/"},"modified":"2010-09-02T09:59:40","modified_gmt":"2010-09-02T09:59:40","slug":"le-peak-oil-est-de-retour","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2010\/09\/02\/le-peak-oil-est-de-retour\/","title":{"rendered":"Le \u201cpeak oil<\/em>\u201d est de retour"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le peak oil<\/em> est de retour<\/h4>\n

Der Spiegel<\/em> publie, le 1er septembre 2010<\/a>, un long document concernant un rapport secret du think tank<\/em> pr\u00e9visionniste de l’arm\u00e9e, du d\u00e9partement des Analyses du Futur, du Centre de Transformation de la Bundeswehr<\/em>. Le sujet en est la p\u00e9nurie de p\u00e9trole.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tLe rapport est tr\u00e8s alarmiste. Il estime que le peak oil<\/em> (point de disposition maximale de p\u00e9trole pour les besoins, en rapport avec la production et la demande) pourrait \u00eatre atteint cette ann\u00e9e, avec les troubles politiques \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir dans la suite (\u00absome probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later<\/em>\u00bb). Les troubles au niveau de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 concernent la concurrence pour l’acc\u00e8s aux ressources, et jusqu’\u00e0 la stabilit\u00e9, voire l’existence des r\u00e9gimes d\u00e9mocratiques en Occident.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tCette longue partie sp\u00e9culative est du type \u00e0 soulever des contestations ou des approbations, c’est selon. L’aspect le plus int\u00e9ressant du rapport concerne les cons\u00e9quences sur la politique allemande, parce qu’il s’agit l\u00e0 de ce qui se rapproche le plus de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9. Le gouvernement allemand est tr\u00e8s attentif \u00e0 ces questions d’\u00e9nergie et peut \u00eatre fortement influenc\u00e9 par ce type de rapport dans sa politique, d\u00e8s maintenant. La conclusion du rapport concerne effectivement cet aspect, avec des effets possibles\/probables dans certains probl\u00e8mes et crises en cours (relations de l’Allemagne avec la Russie, avec l’Iran, avec Isra\u00ebl a contrario<\/em>, etc).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abThe scenarios outlined by the Bundeswehr Transformation Center are drastic. Even more explosive, politically, are recommendations to the government that the energy experts have put forward based on these scenarios. They argue that states dependent on oil imports will be forced to show more pragmatism toward oil-producing states in their foreign policy. Political priorities will have to be somewhat subordinated, they claim, to the overriding concern of securing energy supplies.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbFor example: Germany would have to be more flexible in relation toward Russia’s foreign policy objectives. It would also have to show more restraint in its foreign policy toward Israel, to avoid alienating Arab oil-producing nations. Unconditional support for Israel and its right to exist is currently a cornerstone of German foreign policy.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe relationship with Russia, in particular, is of fundamental importance for German access to oil and gas, the study says. For Germany, this involves a balancing act between stable and privileged relations with Russia and the sensitivities of (Germany’s) eastern neighbors. In other words, Germany, if it wants to guarantee its own energy security, should be accommodating in relation to Moscow’s foreign policy objectives, even if it means risking damage to its relations with Poland and other Eastern European states.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbPeak oil would also have profound consequences for Berlin’s posture toward the Middle East, according to the study. A readjustment of Germany’s Middle East policy in favor of more intensive relations with producer countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, which have the largest conventional oil reserves in the region, might put a strain on German-Israeli relations, depending on the intensity of the policy change, the authors write.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\n

dedefensa.org<\/em><\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le peak oil est de retour Der Spiegel publie, le 1er septembre 2010, un long document concernant un rapport secret du think tank pr\u00e9visionniste de l’arm\u00e9e, du d\u00e9partement des Analyses du Futur, du Centre de Transformation de la Bundeswehr. Le sujet en est la p\u00e9nurie de p\u00e9trole. Le rapport est tr\u00e8s alarmiste. Il estime que… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[2748,4522,2773,6888,8900,3600,2730],"class_list":["post-72235","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ouverture-libre","tag-allemagne","tag-energie","tag-iran","tag-oil","tag-peak","tag-petrole","tag-russie"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72235","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72235"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72235\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72235"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72235"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72235"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}