{"id":72982,"date":"2011-05-06T08:21:07","date_gmt":"2011-05-06T08:21:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2011\/05\/06\/america-is-back\/"},"modified":"2011-05-06T08:21:07","modified_gmt":"2011-05-06T08:21:07","slug":"america-is-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2011\/05\/06\/america-is-back\/","title":{"rendered":"America is back !<\/em>"},"content":{"rendered":"

Encha\u00eenant aussit\u00f4t<\/strong> sur l’\u00e9limination de ben Laden, une campagne de restauration du statut de la puissance US devrait se d\u00e9velopper. Th\u00e8me \u00e9vident : non, l’Am\u00e9rique n’est pas en d\u00e9clin, au contraire elle est sur la voie de la restauration de sa puissance, comme le prouve abondamment l’\u00e9limination de ben Laden.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tL’excellent (sans ironie, pour le cas) Loren B. Thompson l’observe dans l’entame d’une nouvelle qu’il met en ligne sur Early Warning<\/em>, ce 4 mai 2011<\/a> : \u00abThis morning New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg told Today Show host Matt Lauer what he thought the main lesson of Osama bin Laden’s death was: We have endured the biggest attack in our history and emerged stronger than ever. If only it were so…<\/em>\u00bb (Pr\u00e9cision : nous traduirions \u00abIf only it were so…<\/em>\u00bb par Si cela pouvait \u00eatre vrai, of course<\/em>.)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tUn signe plus \u00e9labor\u00e9 de cette offensive-restauration que les d\u00e9clarations du maire de New York, cet article de Joseph S. Nye, du 5 mai 2011<\/a>, sur Aljazeera.net<\/em>, avec le titre r\u00e9v\u00e9lateur \u00abAmerican power after Osama bin Laden<\/em>\u00bb (L’article est initialement mis en ligne ce 5 mai 2011<\/a>, sur Project Syndicate<\/em>. Le choix de Nye d’Aljazeera.net<\/em> pour sa diffusion internationale illustre aussi bien ses intentions que le cr\u00e9dit d\u00e9sormais pr\u00eat\u00e9, aux USA, \u00e0 Washington, au centre d’information qu’est devenu Aljazeera<\/em>.)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tApr\u00e8s avoir fait un historique de l’analyse concluant \u00e0 l’id\u00e9e des USA en d\u00e9clin, Nye observe que cette id\u00e9e du d\u00e9clin est r\u00e9currente dans le syst\u00e8me de la communication \u00e0 propos des USA ; curieusement, ou bien selon une d\u00e9marche sophistique proche de la perfection du genre, cela semblerait \u00eatre la preuve, pour lui, qu’il n’y a pas de d\u00e9clin. Nye a donc termin\u00e9 en d\u00e9montrant que le d\u00e9clin US est une pathologie de la psychologie qui n’a rien \u00e0 voir avec les faits Il saupoudre sa conclusion de quelques si d’une taille et d’un poids monumentaux et nous laisse avec les USA en pleine restauration de sa puissance, notamment avec un accord entre les r\u00e9publicains et les d\u00e9mocrates pour achever l’uvre superbe de r\u00e9surrection.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abDespite these differences, Americans are prone to cycles of belief in decline. The Founding Fathers worried about comparisons to the decline of the Roman republic. Moreover, cultural pessimism is very American, extending back to the country’s Puritan roots. As Charles Dickens observed a century and a half ago, if its individual citizens, to a man, are to be believed,<\/em> [America<\/em>] always is depressed, and always is stagnated, and always is in an alarming crisis, and never was otherwise.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbMore recently, polls showed widespread belief in decline after the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957, then again during the Nixon-era economic shocks in the 1970s, and after Ronald Reagan’s budget deficits in the 1980s. At the end of that decade, American’s believed the country was in decline; yet, within a decade, they believed that the US was the sole superpower. Now many have gone back to believing in decline.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbCycles of declinism tell us more about American psychology than about underlying shifts in power resources. Some observers, such as the Harvard historian Niall Ferguson, believe that debating the stages of decline may be a waste of time it is a precipitous and unexpected fall that should most concern policy makers and citizens. Ferguson believes that a doubling of public debt in the coming decade cannot erode US strength on its own, but that it could weaken a long-assumed faith in America’s ability to weather any crisis.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbFerguson is correct that the US will have to come to terms with its budget deficit to maintain international confidence, but, as I show in my book The Future of Power, doing so is within the range of possible outcomes. America enjoyed a budget surplus only a decade ago, before George W. Bush’s tax cuts, two wars, and recession created fiscal instability. The US economy is still ranked near the top in competitiveness by the World Economic Forum, and the political system, in its own messy way, has slowly begun to wrestle with the necessary changes.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbSome believe a political compromise between Republicans and Democrats can be reached before the 2012 election; others suggest an agreement is more likely after the election. Either way, fuzzy statements about hegemonic decline would again prove misleading.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tLa conclusion de Nye, professeur \u00e0 Harvard, est tout simplement surr\u00e9aliste et, pour un scholar<\/em> de sa tr\u00e8s pompeuse qualit\u00e9, d’une extraordinaire m\u00e9diocrit\u00e9, comme la Pravda<\/em> terminait ses \u00e9ditoriaux du temps du brejn\u00e9visme Voir dans les \u00e9v\u00e9nements courants \u00e0 Washington le signe que le syst\u00e8me politique, \u00e0 sa propre fa\u00e7on chaotique, a doucement commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 se coltiner avec les changements n\u00e9cessaires, c’est prendre ses lecteurs pour des billes ; c’est m\u00eame les prendre pour des billes carr\u00e9es que de poursuivre, \u00e0 propos d’une capitale dont la prospective \u00e9v\u00e9nementielle est limit\u00e9e \u00e0 la demi-journ\u00e9e, que certains croient qu’il y aura un accord politique d\u00e9mocrates-r\u00e9publicains avant l’\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielles de 2012, et d’autres que, non, ce serait plut\u00f4t pour apr\u00e8s l’\u00e9lection de 2012 Nous, nous pr\u00e9voyons qu’apr\u00e8s 2012 ce sera 2013 selon certains, \u00e0 moins que le calendrier des Mayas en d\u00e9cide autrement, selon d’autres<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tPour l’heure imm\u00e9diate, les \u00e9v\u00e9nements confirment tout de m\u00eame l’appr\u00e9ciation de Nye sur un point, celui selon lequel le Syst\u00e8me, ou l’ensemble Congr\u00e8s-Pr\u00e9sident pour ce cas, d\u00e9veloppe effectivement sa propre fa\u00e7on chaotique pour saluer la grande victoire de l’\u00e9limination de ben Laden. Apr\u00e8s avoir fait une revue critique des changements de versions des \u00e9v\u00e9nements de l’\u00e9limination de ben Laden, Rupert Cornwell conclut, dans The Independent<\/em> de ce 6 mai 2011<\/a> :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abIn any case, it will soon be partisan business as usual again in US politics. Yesterday, Vice-President Joe Biden opened talks with top congressional leaders on how to reduce the federal deficit. The debt argument, pitting Republicans demanding spending cuts against Democrats determined to protect key social programmes such as Medicare and Social Security, is the issue that may above all decide whether Mr Obama wins a second term in November 2012.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbEven as the President was in New York, the Republican Speaker of the House, John Boehner, declared his party would not vote to raise the US debt limit, due to be hit within weeks, without trillions of dollars of spending cuts.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe death of national enemy No 1 Osama bin Laden has created a rare moment of unity between the parties. It is unlikely to last.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tCette situation de blocage du gouvernement US, et du pouvoir US en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, est effectivement un point fondamental de l’effondrement du Syst\u00e8me (en cours, pour info \u00e0 destination de Joseph S. Nye, professeur \u00e0 Harvard). Dans une tr\u00e8s longue et tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressante analyse, sur laquelle nous reviendrons, sur l’effondrement du Syst\u00e8me (confirmation de l’effondrement en cours), l’excellent Peter Dale Scott<\/a> observe la confusion et le d\u00e9sordre US dans la crise libyenne, et il pr\u00e9cise (sur Atimes.com<\/em> ce 6 mai 2011<\/a>) : \u00abTo understand America’s and NATO’s confusion over Libya, one must look at other phenomena: Standard & Poor’s warning of an imminent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating ; the unprecedented rise in the price of gold to over $1500 an ounce; the gridlock in American politics over federal and state deficits and what to do about them<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tD’une fa\u00e7on plus g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, cela nous ram\u00e8ne au texte de Loren B. Thompson d\u00e9j\u00e0 cit\u00e9 ; impeccable mercenaire du Syst\u00e8me lorsqu’il s’agit du JSF, couvert d’or comme il se doit par Lockheed Martin et donc menteur \u00e0 mesure, Loren B. devient remarquablement libre d’esprit lorsqu’il s’agit de juger de la situation g\u00e9n\u00e9rale des USA. On a souvent remarqu\u00e9 cette ambivalence<\/a>, caract\u00e9ristique des relations entre le Syst\u00e8me et les sapiens<\/em> du domaine, qui est extr\u00eamement marqu\u00e9e chez Loren B. Ainsi en est-il pour ce cas, o\u00f9 Thompson montre effectivement, en commentaire sur l’Am\u00e9rique d’apr\u00e8s, un robuste et roboratif pessimisme, tout en restant \u00e9videmment de tout cur un am\u00e9ricaniste, esp\u00e9rant que, malgr\u00e9 tout, l’objet de sa passion trouvera la force de vaincre ses faiblesses, peut-\u00eatre mortelles faiblesses, non, d\u00e9sol\u00e9, Loren B., d’ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0 mortelles faiblesses<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tNous reprenons le passage cit\u00e9 plus haut, et encha\u00eenons.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abThis morning New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg told Today Show host Matt Lauer what he thought the main lesson of Osama bin Laden’s death was: We have endured the biggest attack in our history and emerged stronger than ever. If only it were so. The numbers tell a different story. On the morning of September 11, 2001, New York was, in the words of a PBS documentary, the center of the world the financial capital of a nation generating 32 percent of global economic output. Today, only ten years later, America’s share of global production has fallen to 23 percent, and the steady erosion seen since the 9-11 attacks continues unabated.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbAccording to the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. share of global output shrunk from 24.4 percent in 2009 to 23.3 percent in 2010. If the federal government stopped borrowing money tomorrow, our economy would quickly contract to 20 percent of world production, since federal borrowing currently represents over a tenth of GDP. In other words, borrowing is the main reason that America’s share of global output has not fallen to the lowest level in living memory. So the National Intelligence Council was right when it told President-elect Obama in 2008 that, In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the global shift in relative wealth and economic power now under way roughly from West to East is without precedent in modern history.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbI’ve quoted that passage many times since we began the Lexington blog, but I still have the sense that most people in Washington don’t grasp how rapid America’s decline has been since 9-11 <\/em> []<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbAs I remarked in a piece for Forbes earlier this week, we can’t blame Osama bin Laden for America’s decline after 9-11, since our wounds are largely self-inflicted. But we can speculate that the constant distraction of overseas wars aimed at defeating terrorism had something to do with why policymakers neglected the nation’s economic health until it became a crisis reflected in record federal budget deficits. And we can reasonably assume that if America’s economic decline continues, many historians will see 9-11 as the symbolic turning point in America’s fortunes — the day on which the golden age of American affluence and influence began to ebb away. The question is what Washington should do about it now that the best known author of our recent difficulties is dead.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbFor me, the answer is simple. The United States needs to relinquish its pretentious crusade to save the world and set about saving itself. Having ceased to be a model for other countries’ development, America must rediscover the basic principles that enabled it to rise to economic greatness after the Civil War. That means first of all paying our bills rather than deferring pain and enforcing our trade rights against mercantilist nations that seek to compete unfairly<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tTout cela pour nous rappeler, nous confirmer une fois encore, que tout ce que fait le Syst\u00e8me aujourd’hui, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 sa puissance fournie par le syst\u00e8me du technologisme, a pour but principal de tenter de rassurer les psychologies affol\u00e9es sur l’\u00e9tat de l’Am\u00e9rique, affolement \u00e9videmment illustr\u00e9 et renforc\u00e9 par le syst\u00e8me de la communication. C’est le cas \u00e9galement pour la grotesque c\u00e9l\u00e9bration, ce 6 mai, de l’assassinat de ben Laden par leur pr\u00e9sident, \u00e0 Ground Z\u00e9ro<\/em>, comme le veut le pr\u00e9sident Obama, avec toutes les pompes et circonstances de rigueur. Obama est toujours \u00e0 la recherche d’un consensus bipartisan dont il ne doute pas qu’il restaurera l’unit\u00e9 nationale, fa\u00e7on-Lincoln, et lui assurera sa r\u00e9\u00e9lection.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tC’est peut-\u00eatre une obsession, ou une pathologie de la psychologie, mais c’est aussi un fait politique : tous les actes politiques et de communication, aujourd’hui \u00e0 Washington, sont con\u00e7us et r\u00e9alis\u00e9s pour tenter de d\u00e9montrer que l’effondrement du Syst\u00e8me est une fausse nouvelle, que le d\u00e9clin des USA est une machination, une tromperie, l’uvre de quelque esprit malin, assist\u00e9 de commentateurs venimeux et mal-pensants. L’assassinat de ben Laden n’est donc pas un acte destin\u00e9 \u00e0 mettre fin \u00e0 la Guerre contre la Terreur, ni \u00e0 l’emporter contre al Qa\u00efda, etc. C’est un acte sp\u00e9cifiquement<\/strong> destin\u00e9 \u00e0 tenter de redonner un peu de sang et quelque couleur \u00e0 l’image de l’Am\u00e9rique, et \u00e0 tenter de stopper la vertigineuse perception de l’effondrement.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tMis en ligne le 6 mai 2011 \u00e0 08H19<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Encha\u00eenant aussit\u00f4t sur l’\u00e9limination de ben Laden, une campagne de restauration du statut de la puissance US devrait se d\u00e9velopper. Th\u00e8me \u00e9vident : non, l’Am\u00e9rique n’est pas en d\u00e9clin, au contraire elle est sur la voie de la restauration de sa puissance, comme le prouve abondamment l’\u00e9limination de ben Laden. L’excellent (sans ironie, pour le… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3936,3109,3265,4443,2899,5889,4595,3266,3473,3614,2693,4242,3866,7147,3474,2950],"class_list":["post-72982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-al","tag-b","tag-ben","tag-dale","tag-declin","tag-ground","tag-joseph","tag-laden","tag-loren","tag-nye","tag-peter","tag-qaida","tag-s","tag-scott","tag-thompson","tag-zero"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72982","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72982"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72982\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}